Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Moderna reiterated 2026 revenue growth of up to 10% (Q2 revenue was $145M, H1 revenue $0.5B, Q2 up 2% YoY) and expects a roughly 50/50 U.S./international split for the full year (Q2 was 60% U.S./40% international; H1 was 31% U.S./69% international), with third-quarter revenue representing ~55% of second‑half revenue; the company lowered its cost assumptions — cost of sales guidance down $0.1B to $1.7B (which includes a $0.9B litigation charge), R&D down $0.1B to $2.9B, and SG&A ~ $1.0B — and, excluding the $0.9B litigation charge, now expects total GAAP operating expenses of $4.7B and cash costs of $4.0B (each a $0.2B improvement versus prior guidance); Q2 results showed cost of sales $93M (‑22% YoY), R&D $651M (‑7% YoY), SG&A $216M (‑6% YoY), a net loss of $782M (loss per share $1.97 vs $2.13 prior year), cash and investments of $6.9B (down from $7.5B at Q1 end; note a $950M litigation payment made in July), projected year‑end cash of $4.7–5.2B, capex of $0.2–0.3B, taxes negligible, and guidance assumes potential COVID vaccination declines and no 2026 revenue from mFLUSIVA or mCOMBRIAX (cash guidance excludes use of the remaining $0.9B undrawn credit facility).