Mosaic Co (MOS) AI Stock Analysis

Mosaic Co

(BMV:MOS)

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Positive Factors

Integrated supply advantagesMosaic’s integrated mining, production, and sourcing footprint can support a more resilient cost position than peers when raw-material markets are disrupted. Internal and contracted supply coverage may also improve production planning and protect margins over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak free cash flowDeeply negative free cash flow shows that current operations are not covering capital spending, weakening internal funding capacity. Continued cash deficits could constrain debt reduction, shareholder returns, and investment flexibility unless working-capital releases and operating improvements persist.

Mosaic Co (MOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: MXN 5.85B
Dividend Yield: 4.52%
Average Volume (3M): 1,370
Price to Earnings (P/E): 91.9
Beta (1Y): -0.24
Revenue Growth: -0.66%
EPS Growth: -159.73%
Country: Mexico
Employees: 13,249
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Agricultural Inputs

Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Operating on a global scale via its various subsidiaries, The Mosaic Company specializes in the creation and distribution of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its business is structured into three distinct segments: Phosphates, Potash...

Mosaic Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 10, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-12.03%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

Mixed. The call details significant near-term challenges driven primarily by external sulfur supply disruptions and resulting phosphate curtailments, under-application of phosphate (driving agronomic risk) and some near-term cash pressure (approx. $500M expected shortfall). Offsetting these negatives are multiple company actions and strengths: secured sulfur contracts materially below spot for Q3, strong balance sheet and liquidity actions (term loan, refinancings, untapped revolver), meaningful SG&A reductions (-20% YoY), potash stability and growth projects (Esterhazy HydroFloat), resilient Brazil distribution and co-product margins, fast-growing Mosaic Biosciences, lower CapEx guidance ($1.2B) and an expected working capital release (forecast $300–500M) supporting sequential free cash flow improvement in Q3 and Q4. Overall the transcript portrays a company taking decisive defensive actions to manage a severe but (management believes) temporary market disruption, leading to a balanced view of risk and mitigation.

Positive Updates

Q2 Production and Sales

Produced and sold 1.4 million tonnes of phosphate in Q2 despite market turmoil, demonstrating operational flexibility and strong global customer relationships.

Negative Updates

Severe Sulfur Supply Disruption

Ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure and Kazakhstan blockade materially disrupted global sulfur flows, pushing spot sulfur prices to unsustainably high levels and forcing production curtailments; management estimates global phosphate production could fall short of prior year by up to 30 million tonnes if disruptions persist.

Company Guidance

Mosaic guided third-quarter realized raw‑material costs of about $700–710/ton for sulfur and $610–620/tonne for ammonia (Q2 averages were $522/ton sulfur and $621/tonne ammonia), DAP FOB pricing of $820–840/tonne and implied stripping margins “well above” historical averages; phosphate sales guidance for Q3 was 1.1–1.4 million tonnes (Q2 produced/sold 1.4M t) and Q2 realized stripping margin was $422/tonne. They cut full‑year CapEx to $1.2B (from $1.25B/$1.5B prior) with roughly $300M expected in Q3 and a drop in Q4, reduced SG&A ~20% YoY with further declines forecast, and expect sequential free‑cash‑flow improvement in Q3 and Q4. Mosaic reiterated a $300–500M working‑capital release this year (≈$100–200M in Q3, majority in Q4), Q2 Fertilizantes EBITDA ≈$60M, Q2 MOP costs $84/ton (lower in H2), Biosciences on track to double revenues with ~ $30M Brazil sales in Q3 (~40% margin, ≈$12M contribution), Q2 idle/turnaround charges ≈$60M with Q3 incremental idle/turnaround of roughly $10–20M, and strengthened liquidity via a $1.0B term loan, $500M CP refinanced in June (remainder in July) and an untapped $2.5B revolver.

Mosaic Co Risk Analysis

Mosaic Co disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mosaic Co reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Production - Risks related to the company’s ability to manufacture goods and services

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Mosaic Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

MX:MOS against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAN	75Outperform	$1.34B	8.36	51.56%	11.42%	17.47%	82.16%
CTVA	74Outperform	$7.77B	51.28	4.08%	0.93%	3.70%	-26.39%
IPI	73Outperform	$424.96M	15.81	5.27%	―	4.20%	―
ICL	60Neutral	$5.91B	18.76	5.02%	4.50%	10.92%	-16.91%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
FMC	42Neutral	$964.39M	-0.19	-308.88%	5.16%	-21.99%	-677.23%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MX:MOS and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
MX:MOS	Mosaic Co	341.02	-191.43	-35.95%
UAN	CVR Partners LP	126.76	39.83	45.81%
FMC	FMC Corp	6.20	-7.62	-55.14%
IPI	Intrepid Potash Inc	31.58	5.30	20.17%
ICL	Icl Group Ltd.	4.58	-1.77	-27.85%
CTVA	Corteva	11.64	2.42	26.19%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Mosaic Co AI Stock Analysis