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Maximus (MMS) AI Stock Analysis

MX:MMS

Maximus

(BMV:MMS)

Rating:―N/A
Action:N/A
Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors
Strong cash generationConsistently positive free cash flow with conversion near 90% of net income indicates strong earnings quality and internally generated funding. This supports investment, debt management, and shareholder returns while reducing reliance on external capital across the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Revenue contractionA TTM revenue decline signals that profitability improvements have not yet translated into sustained top-line expansion. If contract awards, renewals, or program timing remain pressured, weaker scale could limit operating leverage and make future growth more dependent on new wins.

Maximus (MMS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%MX:MMS+1.39%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
MXN 3.34B
Dividend Yield
2.33%
Average Volume (3M)
―
Price to Earnings (P/E)
9.3
Beta (1Y)
0.01
Revenue Growth
-11.99%
EPS Growth
13.38%
Country
Mexico
Employees
37,200
Sector
Industrials
Sector Strength
63
Industry
Specialty Business Services

Maximus Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Maximus, Inc. specializes in delivering business process services (BPS) tailored for governmental health and human welfare initiatives. Its operations are structured into three main divisions: U.S. Services, U.S. Federal Services, and International S...

Maximus Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:0.35%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presents a generally constructive operational and strategic picture — Q3 revenue was in line with expectations, margins improved year-over-year, a large $50.4B pipeline and $1.25B of signed awards support medium/long-term growth, AI adoption is delivering measurable margin benefits, and collections momentum has begun to relieve working capital stress. However, notable near-term headwinds include a customer-directed pause of VA MDE incentives that reduced FY26 EPS guidance by ~$0.35, elevated DSO and a Q3 free cash flow outflow, a slowed procurement environment with a trailing book-to-bill of ~0.5x, and modest profitability in Outside the U.S. Taken together, the company appears to be navigating temporary timing and contract-driven challenges while maintaining margin progress, a sizable pipeline, disciplined capital allocation, and strategic investments that support growth into FY2027.

Positive Updates

Quarterly Revenue In Line with Expectations
Q3 revenue of $1.28 billion was in line with expectations and Management reiterated full-year revenue guidance of $5.2B–$5.35B (bias toward lower end).

Negative Updates

VA MDE Incentive Pause Reduces Near-Term Earnings
Customer-directed temporary pause of performance incentives on the VA MDE program effective July 1, 2026 removed assumed Q4 incentive contribution, reducing FY26 diluted EPS guidance midpoint by ~$0.35 (prior midpoint $8.40 → new midpoint $8.05, a ~4.2% reduction). Management assumes the pause through Dec 31, 2026 but noted scenarios could vary.

Company Guidance

The company reiterated fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $5.20–$5.35 billion (bias toward the low end) and issued revised adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $7.90–$8.20 (midpoint $8.05, down $0.35 from the prior $8.40), which corresponds to a full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin of ~13.7% and implies Q4 adjusted diluted EPS at the midpoint of $1.91 (Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin roughly ~13%); free cash flow is now expected to be $425–$475 million, interest expense ~ $88 million, and the full‑year tax rate 24–24.5%; segment assumptions include U.S. Federal Services operating margin 16.5–17.0% for the year (Q4 14.5–15.0%), U.S. Services 9.5–10.0% (includes a $6.9M noncash charge), and Outside the U.S. breakeven (implying a profitable Q4); liquidity and balance sheet metrics: Q3 total debt $1.65B (Term Loan B raised $325M), consolidated net leverage 2.0x (target 2x–3x), Q3 DSO was 98 days but expected to finish the year below 70 days ( ~$245M collected since June 30), Q3 cash used in operations was $(125)M and Q3 free cash flow $(137)M; share activity: repurchased ~0.75M shares for $50M in Q3, $400M authorization remains available, and ~8.3M shares (~14% of beginning outstanding) repurchased since FY2025.

Maximus Risk Analysis

Maximus disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maximus reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Maximus Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

MX:MMS against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
IIIIII77Outperform$295.32M25.2012.32%2.95%4.18%50.80%
CBZCBZ70Outperform$3.01B21.997.96%―3.74%48.86%
FAFA66Neutral$3.71B146.471.93%―32.89%―
Sector *63Neutral$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
ABMABM63Neutral$3.13B19.249.44%2.17%6.00%50.32%
DLHCDLHC44Neutral$52.61M-2.41-20.12%―-29.52%-564.69%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%MX:MMSABMCBZIIIDLHCFADec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
MX:MMS and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MX:MMSMaximus1630.0022.381.39%
ABMAbm Industries Incorporated53.4811.4127.12%
CBZCBIZ Inc54.98-0.11-0.20%
IIIInformation Services Group6.100.264.49%
DLHCDLH Holdings Corp.3.63-2.32-38.99%
FAFirst Advantage Corporation21.599.2574.96%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.