Methanex (MEOHN) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was strongly positive on Methanex's operating execution, liquidity, cash flow generation, debt reduction, shareholder-return flexibility, and expected fourth-quarter EBITDA improvement. However, management emphasized substantial uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, restricted supply, significant demand destruction, downstream affordability pressures, seasonal gas constraints in Chile, and the planned idling of New Zealand operations. Overall, the positive financial and operational performance significantly outweighed the stated challenges.

Methanex said 2026 expected equity production continues to be approximately 9 million tonnes of methanol; based on October and November contract price postings and current spot pricing, it expects an average realized price range for these 2 months to be approximately $525 to $550 per ton, and, assuming current pricing levels are sustained through December and produced sales volumes are similar to those of the third quarter, adjusted EBITDA to be higher in the fourth quarter than the third quarter. Chile production guidance for 2027 will likely be at the more 1.4 million ton level for Chile, 2027 turnaround activity will be at the higher side of around 2 to 3 turnarounds a year, and capital expenditure, usually around $150 million, will be higher than that next year, but not significantly higher. The company is targeting 2.0x to 2.5x adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA, does not expect overall sales to be significantly different as it moves into 2027, and said organic growth would require over a 20 year time frame at the mid-400s or maybe slightly below.