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Medpace Holdings (MEDP) AI Stock Analysis

MX:MEDP

Medpace Holdings

(BMV:MEDP)

Rating:―N/A
Action:N/A
Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors
Strong profitable growthMEDP has substantially expanded revenue while maintaining strong operating and net margins, indicating that scale is translating into durable earnings power. Continued profitability provides resources to support investment, absorb operating variability, and reinforce the company’s position in outsourced clinical development.
Negative Factors
Clinical-program cancellationsCancellations can reduce backlog and interrupt revenue conversion when client programs fail, encounter safety signals, or are reprioritized. Management identifies cancellations as a major factor behind the historical slowdown in growth, so persistent levels could pressure visibility and utilization over the next several quarters.

Medpace Holdings (MEDP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%MX:MEDP+19.42%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
MXN 18.24B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
―
Price to Earnings (P/E)
35.5
Beta (1Y)
-0.05
Revenue Growth
8.18%
EPS Growth
12.36%
Country
Mexico
Employees
6,600
Sector
Healthcare
Sector Strength
51
Industry
Medical - Diagnostics & Research

Medpace Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Medpace Holdings, Inc., founded in Cincinnati, Ohio, in 1992, functions as a contract research organization (CRO) delivering clinical development and research services. The company assists pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device clients thr...

Medpace Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 20, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:0.00%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 14, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly positive. Medpace reported strong revenue, EBITDA, net income, EPS, bookings, backlog, cash flow, pipeline activity, win rates, utilization, and employee retention, and raised its 2026 outlook. The main challenges were elevated-but-manageable cancellations, uncertainty that delayed 2027 guidance, quarter-to-quarter margin volatility, lower current metabolic awards, and approximately $20 million of operating costs from the Cincinnati expansion in 2027.

Positive Updates

Record Net New Business Awards and Strong Win Rate
Management reported a strong business environment in the third quarter, with high-quality RFP activity, strong initial award notifications, and a good win rate. Net new business awards reached an all-time high, while awards over the last 12 months increased 23.9% year over year.

Negative Updates

Cancellations Were Toward the Higher End of the Expected Range
Backlog cancellations in the third quarter were toward the higher end of the range Medpace expects, although management described them as manageable and said they were not outside the expected range.

Company Guidance

For 2026, total revenue is now expected in the range of $2.835 billion to $2.855 billion, representing growth of 12% to 12.8% over 2025 total revenue of $2.53 billion; EBITDA is now expected in the range of $638 million to $652 million, representing growth of 14.4% to 16.9% compared to EBITDA of $557.7 million in 2025; net income is forecast in the range of $514 million to $524 million; the guidance assumes a full year 2026 effective tax rate of 19% to 19.5%, interest income of $22.9 million and 28.6 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding, with no additional share repurchases assumed; earnings per diluted share is now expected in the range of $17.97 to $18.32, based on foreign exchange rates as of September 30, 2026. Pass-through mix is expected to be “somewhere around where we finished the third quarter,” or “kind of 40% to 40.5% based on our current model,” while 2027 guidance will be provided at the time of Q4 reporting in February, with “no large disconnect” between analyst consensus estimates and current modeling, including about $20 million of operating costs from the Cincinnati expansion in 2027.

Medpace Holdings Risk Analysis

Medpace Holdings disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Medpace Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Medpace Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

MX:MEDP against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
DGXDGX76Outperform$27.71B24.7415.21%1.34%9.13%17.93%
LHLH75Outperform$29.31B29.4511.54%0.80%6.02%19.63%
IQVIQV74Outperform$44.06B32.1321.82%―8.88%13.11%
ICLRICLR69Neutral$16.31B36.134.85%―0.67%43.70%
CRLCRL58Neutral$17.16B-74.26-7.72%―-0.74%-268.79%
Sector *51Neutral$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%100%MX:MEDPCRLICLRLHDGXIQVDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
MX:MEDP and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MX:MEDPMedpace Holdings Inc7022.031142.0319.42%
CRLCharles River Laboratories Intl359.41180.55100.94%
ICLRIcon Plc211.3642.5725.22%
LHLabcorp Holdings Inc.361.39106.1341.58%
DGXQuest Diagnostics251.8275.9443.18%
IQVIQVIA Holdings267.3353.4524.99%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.