Macerich (MAC) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Macerich guided that go‑forward portfolio NOI should increase at least 3% in 2026 (Q2 go‑forward NOI +3.8%; YTD +2.5%) with meaningful acceleration in 2027–28 (Path Forward 3.0 implies a 3‑year NOI CAGR midpoint of 6.5% for ’26–’28, which implies north of ~8% in ’27–’28); they have high confidence in a ~$140M SNO opportunity (SNO pipeline $124M) with estimated annual contributions of ~$30M in 2026 (back‑end weighted), $40–45M in 2027 and $45–50M in 2028. Q2 FFO as‑adjusted was ~$100M or $0.35 per diluted share; leasing activity included 1.3M sq ft signed (645k new) in Q2, ~350k sq ft opened, a leasing speedometer at 88% (vs. 85% midyear target), store openings completion at 57% (ahead of 50% at NAREIT and expected >60% by year‑end), ~1,000 new‑deal program with ~170 deals remaining (≈2/3 in LOI), portfolio sales $919/sq ft ($954 go‑forward), leased occupancy 94% (95.5% go‑forward) and physical occupancy ~91%. On the balance sheet, liquidity is ≈$1.2B (≈$900M revolver), May equity net proceeds ≈$450M, unsettled forward equity ≈$372M available for acquisitions, net debt/adjusted EBITDA was 7.3x (below 7x inclusive of forwards) with a target around 6x, ~$1.3B of dispositions closed (~2/3 of target) with $300–400M more expected to reach ≈$1.7B, and acquisition opportunities underwriting to ~9–11% stabilized yields (deploying $372M of equity at 9–11% would add roughly $0.02–$0.04 of FFO and lower leverage ~25–30 bps).