Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was mixed but leaned cautious: HGV highlighted resilient recurring businesses, improving late-quarter sales trends, strong credit performance, membership growth and continued capital returns, but these positives were counterbalanced by an 11% contract sales decline, a 12% VPG decline, weaker-than-expected execution, near-term sales and marketing pressure, and a material reduction in full-year EBITDA guidance.

HGV reduced full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1,165 million to $1,180 million, expects tours to be in the positive low to mid-single digits, VPG to decline in the high single digits, and contract sales to be down in the mid-single digits; for the fourth quarter, it expects VPG to decline in the mid-single digits and sales to be down in the low to mid-single digits, with sales “in that kind of low to mid-single digits in line with what we saw in October.” The company expects full-year free-cash-flow conversion to remain in the lower half of its long-term target range of 55% to 65%, inventory spend of approximately $285 million this year and below $300 million next year, provision to be centered around the mid-teens going forward, potentially as low as 14% or as high as 18%, rental business performance in line with last year, resort and club “probably slightly a hair up” versus the prior year, and financing in line with previous expectations; its long-term algorithm calls for low to mid-single-digit tour flow growth with low to single-digit VPG growth, and the licensing fee rate is 5% at a normalized run rate starting January 1.