Gevo earnings date
Gevo (GEVO) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
MX:GEVO Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- MXN 2.23
- Consensus EPS
- MXN 0.65
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 1.58
- One Year Ago EPS
- -MXN 0.56
MX:GEVO Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- MXN 1.54B
- Expected Revenue
- MXN 1.05B
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 496.60M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +94.22%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 11/10/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Gevo's next earnings date is estimated for March 11, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
No slide deck is available for this earnings event.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive, with record revenue, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, net income, and operating cash flow; improved 2026 and 2027 EBITDA expectations; higher production; and a clearer capital-disciplined growth plan. The company also highlighted carbon monetization, RNG-related value, expansion plans, and continued SAF optionality. Risks and open items include the one-time nature of part of the quarter's revenue, market and regulatory variability, third-party validation, pending expansion financing milestones, and conditional timing for Project NorthStar, but these concerns were outweighed by the reported operating and financial progress.
Gevo expects more than $50 million of carbon revenue in 2026, with an estimated $30 million of annual revenue on a run rate basis excluding onetime items, and expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA could exceed $90 million including onetime items, including approximately $20 million from previously banked CFR credits and at least $10 million of expected additional 45Z value from RNG assets, subject to third party validation; it is also tracking to generate positive operating cash flow for the year. For 2027, it currently anticipates adjusted EBITDA of more than $70 million, excluding the nonrecurring sale of previously banked CFR credits, including a full year of increased production from debottlenecking and the additional expected 45Z value from RNG assets, while noting potential upside over that 90 based on operational performance. The debottlenecking program is designed to increase annual low carbon ethanol production to 75 million gallons on a sustainable and repeatable basis, with the full year benefit expected in 2027; Gevo plans to approximately double annual production to roughly 150 million gallons and increase carbon capture to 400,000 tons per year, with start up expected to begin in 2028. The company expects to finalize the expansion JV in the fourth quarter, followed by FID and financial close, while Praj-related licensing and biocatalyst revenues probably start in 2028, with a total addressable Indian isobutanol market of about 3 billion gallons at a 10% blend; regenerative agriculture may provide a few million dollars, maybe $6-7 million, of additional value.
- Record Third-Quarter Financial ResultsGevo reported a record quarter with revenue of $83 million, gross profit of $48 million, adjusted EBITDA of $44 million, cash flow from operations of $41 million, and $68 million of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end. Net income attributable to Gevo was $23 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $8 million in the same quarter last year.
- Strong Year-Over-Year Revenue and Margin GrowthThird-quarter revenue nearly doubled from $43 million in the same quarter last year. Excluding approximately $20 million from the sale of previously banked CFR credits, revenue still grew 47% year over year, driven by higher low carbon ethanol production volumes and pricing and continued growth in the carbon business. Gross profit increased from $30 million to $48 million, while gross margin expanded from 30% to 58%.
- Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Positive Cash GenerationThird-quarter adjusted EBITDA increased to a record $44 million from $7 million in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2026 reached $64 million. Gevo said it is tracking to generate positive operating cash flow for the full year.
- Carbon Business Becoming a Meaningful Product LineGevo expects more than $50 million of carbon revenue in 2026. The quarter included $20 million of previously banked Canada Clean Fuel Regulations credits and $10 million of additional CFR credit revenue recognized during the third quarter. Excluding one-time items, Gevo estimates that its carbon business can generate $30 million of annual revenue on a run-rate basis given current capacity and market conditions.
- Carbon Revenue Diversification and Market ExpansionThe company said carbon credits are increasingly being sold as a distinct product with compliance-market and voluntary-market customers, in addition to fuel, protein, and corn oil products. Gevo also reported additional multiyear offtakes beginning in the voluntary market and plans to scale carbon sales alongside higher fuel volumes.
- Additional RNG-Related 45Z ValueImprovements to the 45Z-GREET model provide greater recognition for avoided methane emissions from dairy manure. Based on current estimates, Gevo expects this to create more than $10 million of additional 45Z value from its existing RNG assets in 2026, subject to third-party validation. This is incremental to the $70 million of 45Z credits sold through the third quarter.
- Raised 2026 and 2027 Adjusted EBITDA OutlookGevo now expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $90 million, including approximately $20 million from previously banked CFR credits recognized in the third quarter and at least $10 million of expected additional RNG-related 45Z value. For 2027, the company expects adjusted EBITDA of more than $70 million, up from the previously communicated $60 million, excluding the one-time banked CFR credit benefit and including a full year of increased production from debottlenecking.
- Debottlenecking Program Nearing Target ProductionThe Gevo North Dakota debottlenecking program is fully funded and remains on track for completion by the end of 2026. Third-quarter production was approximately 19 million gallons, equivalent to an annualized run rate near 75 million gallons. Some projects are already operating, and the remaining projects are being commissioned.
- Operations Team Delivering Higher ProductionManagement credited the operations team for pushing production to an annualized rate near 75 million gallons during the quarter. Gevo said the current priority is to prove that this production level can be delivered reliably and repeatably before taking further credit for optimization beyond that level.
- Gevo North Dakota Expansion Planned for 2028Gevo plans to approximately double annual low carbon ethanol production to roughly 150 million gallons and increase carbon capture to 400,000 tons per year, with startup expected to begin in 2028. The expansion will reuse approximately 50% of the expected equipment, including certain long-lead-time items that have already been acquired and paid for.
- Expansion Designed to Improve Efficiency and Carbon IntensityThe expansion combines reused equipment with new carbon capture technology and newly engineered systems designed to use less energy and water and further reduce carbon intensity. Management said the goal is to build a larger, more efficient, and more profitable low carbon fuels platform rather than simply increase gallon production.
- Potential Operating Leverage From ExpansionGevo does not expect a substantial increase in corporate costs as Gevo North Dakota production approximately doubles. Management said this should allow fixed costs to be spread across a larger earnings base, supporting operating leverage and greater cash generation.
- Strategic Partnership and Planned Expansion FinancingGevo is advancing a project-level joint venture with Ara Energy to support the Gevo North Dakota expansion. The intended funding structure combines Gevo cash on hand and ongoing operating cash generation for its equity commitment with Ara strategic capital and project-level debt for the remainder.
- Capital-Light Monetization of Isobutanol TechnologyGevo's alliance with Praj is intended to monetize isobutanol technology through licensing fees based on installed capacity and recurring catalyst sales. Praj is constructing a demonstration plant for a leading oil marketing company in India, with potential revenue expected to begin in 2028 if testing and approvals proceed as planned.
- Large India Isobutanol Market OpportunityManagement estimated that a 10% isobutanol blend would represent an approximately 3 billion gallon total addressable market in India. Gevo said the model could later be deployed globally while requiring no significant additional investment from Gevo.
- Specialty Fuels Assets Operating Near CapacityAssets previously installed at the Luverne facility in Silsbee, Texas, are operating near capacity and producing sustainable racing fuel blend stocks. With demand continuing to grow, Gevo is evaluating a significant expansion of its specialty fuels business using modular hydrocarbon equipment already owned and acquired in 2024.
- Regenerative Agriculture Supports Further Carbon ValueThrough its Verity platform, Gevo is working with farmers to use regenerative agriculture to lower carbon intensity and generate additional value. Management estimated that the opportunity could capture approximately $6 million to $7 million, with some of the upside shared with participating farmers.
- Continued Demand for Low Carbon FuelsManagement said demand for low carbon fuels is increasing, more states are adopting low carbon fuel programs, and the Renewable Fuel Standard had record RVOs during the year. Gevo described the combination of fuel, carbon, and incentives as a durable revenue stream.
- Maintained Sustainable Aviation Fuel OptionalityGevo said its conviction in sustainable aviation fuel has not changed and that it continues to advance the commercial readiness of Project NorthStar. The company plans to prioritize Gevo North Dakota expansion and other lower-execution-risk opportunities first, with the intention of strengthening its feedstock base, carbon value, earnings, and balance sheet before investing significant capital in SAF.
- Broader Strategic OptionalityManagement said Gevo now has a profitable operating business, a growing carbon product line, production growth toward 75 million gallons, a plan to approximately double production to roughly 150 million gallons by 2028, capital-light technology monetization opportunities, and future upside from SAF and other renewable hydrocarbon fuels.
MX:GEVO Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 0.43- | -0.56 | ― | ― |
| Nov 10, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 0.652.23 | -0.56 | 500.00% (+2.79) | |
| Aug 06, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | -0.39-0.19 | 0.19 | -200.00% (-0.37) | |
| May 07, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | -0.45-1.67 | -1.67 | 0.00% (+0.00) | |
| Mar 05, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | -0.54-0.56 | -1.49 | 62.50% (+0.93) | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | -1.17-0.56 | -1.67 | 66.67% (+1.12) | |
| Aug 11, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | -1.060.19 | -1.67 | 111.11% (+1.86) | |
| May 13, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | -1.79-1.67 | -1.49 | -12.50% (-0.19) | |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | -1.43-1.49 | -1.49 | 0.00% (+0.00) | |
| Nov 07, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | -1.43-1.67 | -1.3 | -28.57% (-0.37) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
