Greenbrier (GBX) AI Stock Analysis

Greenbrier

(BMV:GBX)

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Positive Factors

Recurring Lease RevenueRapid lease-fleet expansion and 98% utilization strengthen the company’s recurring revenue base, reducing reliance on volatile new-railcar orders. This supports more stable results across industry cycles and creates a durable platform for further fleet-management growth.

Negative Factors

Persistent Negative Free Cash FlowRecurring negative free cash flow, including during more profitable periods, indicates that investment needs and working-capital demands are not consistently covered internally. This weakens cash-flow quality, limits self-funding capacity, and can increase dependence on financing.

Greenbrier (GBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: MXN 1.21B
Dividend Yield: 2.58%
Average Volume (3M): ―
Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.3
Beta (1Y): -0.02
Revenue Growth: -31.64%
EPS Growth: -64.67%
Country: Mexico
Employees: 10,000
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Railroads

Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. operates as a prominent player in the railway sector, dedicated to the engineering, construction, and distribution of railroad freight car equipment across North America, Europe, and South America. Its operations are or...

Greenbrier Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 25, 2026(Q4-2026)|% Change Since:0.00%|Next Earnings Date:Dec 31, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly constructive. Despite results below initial expectations, weak European demand, lower fourth-quarter operating efficiency, trade-related tank car uncertainty and a lower near-term leasing margin, Greenbrier highlighted stronger orders, the first sequential backlog increase since fiscal 2024, 23% lease fleet growth, 98% utilization, strong liquidity, improving rail market indicators and positive fiscal 2027 guidance. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.

Positive Updates

Resilient Fiscal 2026 Performance

Greenbrier delivered 15,400 railcars, generated $2.5 billion in revenue, earned core earnings per share of $2.60 and achieved aggregate gross margin of 13.6%. Compared with fiscal 2022, the company delivered about 4,500 fewer units but produced aggregate gross margin 330 basis points higher, core EBITDA 30% higher and core net earnings 76% higher.

Negative Updates

Macroeconomic Pressure and Results Below Initial Expectations

Geopolitical uncertainty, wars, shifting tariff and trade policies and higher interest costs caused customers to extend the timing of investment decisions in long-life freight railcars. Management said fiscal 2026 and fourth-quarter results were below what it expected at the start of the year and that industry activity remained at a low point in the cycle.

Company Guidance

For fiscal 2027, Greenbrier anticipates North American industry deliveries of 26,000 to 28,000 railcars, total revenue between $2.8 billion and $3.2 billion, operating margin ranging from 7% to 7.5%, earnings per share between $2.75 and $3.75, and total capital expenditures, net of proceeds from equipment sales, ranging from $225 million to $275 million, with approximately 70% allocated towards growth of the lease fleet; leasing and fleet management revenue is expected to grow 12% to 15%, manufacturing gross margin is expected to be in the low double digits, aggregate gross margin is expected to be in the 14% to 15% range, and the lease fleet is projected to grow to somewhere between 22,000 cars and 23,000 cars, with deliveries expected to be stronger and back half weighted, and to do a little bit better than 2026 in terms of deliveries.

Greenbrier Risk Analysis

Greenbrier disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greenbrier reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Greenbrier Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

Financial Indicators

MX:GBX against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MX:GBX and its peers over the selected period
Show on chart	Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
	MX:GBX	Greenbrier Companies	842.00	-231.08	-21.53%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Greenbrier AI Stock Analysis