Energy Transfer (ET) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Energy Transfer expects full year adjusted EBITDA to range between $19.7 billion and $19.9 billion, up $850 million at the midpoint compared to the prior quarter’s guidance range, with no benefit from the Vaquero acquisition included; 2026 organic growth capital is expected to be between $5.4 billion and $5.6 billion excluding Sun and USAC, while 2027 growth CapEx is currently expected to be approximately $7 billion, formal guidance to be provided on the next quarter’s call, and run-rate CapEx is probably expected to be north of $5 billion for the next several years, with 2027 probably the high watermark; the majority of growth projects are expected to generate mid teen returns, Phase II of Hugh Brinson is expected in the first quarter of 2027 with capacity increasing to over 2.3 Bcf per day, Bear II is expected in the third quarter of 2027 at approximately $225 million, Cholla is expected in the first quarter of 29 at approximately 100 thousand Mcf per day, South Mississippi is expected in service in 2030 at approximately $1.6 billion and approximately 1.2 Bcf per day, Frac X is expected in the first half of 2029 at 200 thousand barrels per day, Nederland’s expansion is expected to be placed in service in stages beginning in 2028 with the docks expected in mid-2029, and Marcus Hook’s expansion is anticipated for completion in the second half of 2027, increasing capacity to approximately 100 thousand barrels per day.