Chipotle (CMG) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management expects low single-digit comps for 2026, Q4 comps around a plus 2%, and a potential exit rate on the year of 3% to 4%; Q4 pricing is expected to increase to about 3%, bringing total pricing in 2026 to around 2%, while 2027 overall inflation is anticipated to remain in the low to mid-single-digit range. Q4 cost of sales is expected to be around 30.5%, labor costs around 26%, marketing costs in the high 3% range, other operating costs around 16%, margins just under 22%, G&A around $189 million on a non-GAAP basis, depreciation in the low 3% range, and the fiscal 2026 underlying effective tax rate in the 24% to 26% range. Management expects approximately 340 to 360 company-owned restaurants in the U.S. and Canada and around 15 to 25 restaurants outside the U.S. and Canada in 2027, HEEP to reach approximately 2,000 restaurants by year-end and be near complete by the end of 2027, catering to begin rolling out in Q1 of 2027, marketing for 2027 to be in the low 3% range or around 3%, and about 1 point of trans to offset new restaurant openings, with additional traffic growth flowing through at somewhere around 40%; the 2026 margin is expected to be in the mid-23% range and the 2027 baseline, assuming pricing offsets inflation and at least a point of trans offsets NROs, is a mid-24% margin.