Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Cleveland-Cliffs expects $715 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q4, approximately $100 million above Q3, with ASPs expected to increase by a similar amount as in Q3, call it, $45 to $55 a ton, while costs are expected to increase slightly; under prevailing market conditions, it could realistically reach an average of more than $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA per quarter in 2027 and sees a realistic path to more than $4 billion of EBITDA in 2027. Contract renewals should generate more than $1 billion of year over year EBITDA improvement before changes in the underlying pricing index, 2026 CapEx is still expected to be around 700 million, 2027 CapEx is expected to exceed just over a billion dollars, and the company expects to reduce leverage below its 2x-2.5x target by the middle of next year. Working capital will be likely neutral in Q4, most major property sales are expected to close in Q4, and postponing the Burns Harbor C-blast furnace reline to April 2028 preserves approximately 500 thousand tons of production in 2027; the Butler Works expansion adds 25% new production, Burns Harbor GALVANEAL will come online in early 2027 with more available in mid-2027, and the Middletown modernization is expected to be completely done in the first quarter of 30.