Lottery Corporation Limited (LTRCF) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

On guidance, management confirmed FY‑27 operating expenditure of $305–$315 million (FY‑26 OpEx $296m) and said interest expense will rise materially after funding the Victorian licence extension (reported leverage 3.1x at 30 June 2026; adjusted leverage 4.2x including the licence; long‑run target 3–4x), with new debt expected at rates above the current average interest rate of 5.8% (net interest expense was up 4% or $5m in FY‑26). They held the full‑year dividend at $0.165 per share and will adopt a payout ratio based on NPAT pre‑significant items plus after‑tax licence amortisation from FY‑27; FY‑26 results included group revenue $3.6bn, EBITDA before significant items $736m (down 1.8%), NPAT pre‑significant items down 6%, and $58m of significant items after tax. Management flagged jackpot volatility (jackpot offers -21% vs PCP; jackpot turnover reduced EBITDA by ~$88m vs PCP; an estimated $80m adverse impact vs model expectations), noted digital share up 90 basis points, base games +5.6% (Instant Scratch‑Its ~+8%), and cautioned that exiting online Keno could impact EBITDA by ~ $25m, all while reaffirming a BBB+ rating and an intent to reinvest cost savings into digital, product and retail.