Koc Holding A.S. Unsponsored ADR Class B (KHOLY) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management's forward guidance emphasized disciplined capital allocation and specific targets: Tüpras revised full‑year net refining margin to $13–$15/boe (H1 $15.6/boe) and capacity utilization stayed at 95%; holding liquidity is strong with ~ $1.0bn net cash and $1.6bn gross cash after a $600m club loan (first repayment April 2028), ~76% in hard currency and no near‑term debt service for almost 3 years; priority is reinvesting in existing businesses and opportunistic M&A (buybacks described as tactical), with H1 capex ~ $1.7bn; leverage and liquidity metrics remain conservative (current ratio 1.25x; net financial debt/EBITDA incl. finance 1.1x); H1 consolidated revenue was TRY 2.7tr (~$58.8bn, +7.2% YoY), PBT ~TRY 84bn (+154%), net income ~TRY 20.3bn (+147%); portfolio composition highlighted automotive 32%/finance 23%/refining 20%, ~31% of revenues international and ~50% hard‑currency linked, unlisted book value ~TRY 117bn (~$2.5bn); Yapi Kredi transaction (asset management sale implied ~$425m) is expected to add ~70bps to CET1, and bank metrics were: net profit +36% YoY, RoTE 23.4%, NIM 2.9% (+68bps), NPL 4.3%, cost of risk 201bps, CAR 14.4%, CET1 9.4%; other operational signposts include Otokar backlog €669m, Ford Otosan 33% of Turkey production/75% of commercial output and group export share rising to ~51% (up ~8pp).