Matsui Securities Co (8628) AI Stock Analysis

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Matsui Securities Co

(TSE/TYO:8628)

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Rating:62Neutral

Price Target:JPY 1,046.00▲(2.85% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/07/26

The score is driven mainly by solid underlying profitability and a supportive valuation (moderate P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by balance-sheet risk from elevated leverage and weak technicals, with the stock trading below key moving averages alongside negative MACD readings.

Positive Factors

Strong ProfitabilitySustained high margins indicate that Matsui Securities converts brokerage and finance-related revenue into earnings efficiently. This profitability provides capacity to reinvest in platforms and services, support shareholder returns, and absorb normal fluctuations in trading activity over the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Elevated LeverageHigh leverage increases sensitivity to market stress and funding conditions, which matters for a brokerage whose finance-related income is linked to customer activity and rates. It can reduce financial flexibility and make earnings and capital management less resilient during adverse market periods.

Matsui Securities Co (8628) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 259.63B
Dividend Yield: 5.21%
Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.4
Beta (1Y): 0.56
Revenue Growth: 46.94%
EPS Growth: 77.06%
Country: Japan
Employees: 227
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Financial - Capital Markets

Matsui Securities Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Matsui Securities Co., Ltd. is a Japanese firm that provides online securities brokerage services, primarily catering to individual investors within Japan. Its extensive range of offerings includes facilitating trades in equities, futures, and option...

How the Company Makes Money

Matsui Securities primarily generates revenue as a retail-focused online brokerage through transaction- and finance-related income tied to customer trading and account activity. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Brokerage commissions and tra...

Matsui Securities Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and a recent rebound in revenue support the score, but elevated leverage (debt-to-equity around ~2.4x to ~4.5x, ~4.5x in 2026) and highly volatile operating/free cash flow (including a large negative year followed by a strong positive year) reduce stability and visibility.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

56Neutral

Cash Flow

49Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue	46.80B	39.20B	52.66B	36.84B	31.09B	33.21B
Gross Profit	36.31B	30.85B	41.61B	29.04B	23.47B	27.51B
EBITDA	22.44B	19.83B	25.89B	17.50B	14.01B	19.16B
Net Income	13.09B	10.50B	15.48B	9.79B	7.82B	11.44B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.28T	1.12T	1.35T	1.17T	976.03B	879.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	100.60B	105.70B	107.71B	104.47B	79.33B	57.30B
Total Debt	268.40B	313.93B	370.80B	281.81B	489.66B	175.38B
Total Liabilities	1.21T	1.05T	1.27T	1.10T	899.67B	800.67B
Stockholders Equity	77.63B	76.60B	82.35B	76.33B	76.35B	78.72B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	-113.86B	108.92B	143.74B	7.45B	21.71B
Operating Cash Flow	0	-113.43B	109.35B	144.40B	7.95B	22.01B
Investing Cash Flow	0	-8.68B	-6.17B	-8.82B	-5.95B	-33.00M
Financing Cash Flow	0	53.20B	2.88B	8.62B	41.92B	-50.37B

Matsui Securities Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price1017.00

Price Trends

50DMA1106.60Negative

100DMA1062.78Negative

200DMA986.49Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-27.68Positive

RSI41.81Neutral

STOCH25.23Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8628, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1017.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1049.35, below the 50-day MA of 1106.60, and above the 200-day MA of 986.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -27.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:8628.

Matsui Securities Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

JP:8628 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:8601	82Outperform	JPY 2.36T	12.15	11.45%	4.15%	18.37%	32.99%
JP:8609	72Outperform	JPY 225.20B	7.82	―	3.93%	35.90%	141.48%
JP:8707	69Neutral	JPY 86.79B	7.35	―	6.04%	33.17%	48.82%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
JP:8698	66Neutral	JPY 146.53B	31.08	3.80%	5.20%	3.80%	―
JP:8628	62Neutral	JPY 259.63B	13.41	23.59%	5.21%	46.94%	77.06%
JP:8604	56Neutral	JPY 4.33T	10.84	11.08%	3.84%	11.75%	13.33%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:8628 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:8628	Matsui Securities Co	1017.00	253.30	33.17%
JP:8601	Daiwa Inc	1782.00	532.42	42.61%
JP:8698	Monex Group	592.00	-130.80	-18.10%
JP:8604	Nomura Holdings	1538.00	420.89	37.68%
JP:8609	Okasan Securities Group Inc.	1048.00	372.81	55.22%
JP:8707	IwaiCosmo Holdings, Inc.	3810.00	1050.81	38.08%

Matsui Securities Co Corporate Events

Matsui Securities’ Half-Year Profit Jumps Nearly 60% on Strong Trading Revenue

Oct 28, 2026

Matsui Securities reported a sharp improvement in its non-consolidated results for the six months to September 30, 2026, with operating revenue rising 42.8% year on year to ¥34.0 billion and net operating revenue up 38.2%. Operating profit jumped 60....

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026

Matsui Securities Co AI Stock Analysis