Okasan Securities Group Inc. (8609) AI Stock Analysis

Okasan Securities Group Inc.

(TSE/TYO:8609)

Select Model

Rating:71.6Outperform

Price Target:JPY 1,120.00▲(10.78% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/31/26

The score is supported primarily by strong financial recovery and attractive valuation. Weak technical momentum and the company’s history of cyclical earnings and cash-flow volatility moderate the overall rating.

Positive Factors

Revenue and Profit GrowthThe sharp improvement in revenue and net income indicates stronger operating momentum across the securities business. If maintained, higher activity and profitability can reinforce client relationships, support investment in distribution capabilities, and improve earnings power over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Unreliable Cash GenerationSeveral consecutive years of negative operating cash flow show that earnings have not consistently translated into cash. This weakens confidence in earnings quality and can constrain internally funded growth or distributions if the 2026 rebound does not persist through future market cycles.

Okasan Securities Group Inc. (8609) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 203.01B
Dividend Yield: 3.96%
Average Volume (3M): 519.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.5
Beta (1Y): 1.14
Revenue Growth: 35.90%
EPS Growth: 141.44%
Country: Japan
Employees: 3,472
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Financial - Capital Markets

Okasan Securities Group Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Okasan Securities Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in securities business in Japan. The company offers asset management; online trading with consulting services; corporate services, support IPOs, propose M and A and business matchi...

How the Company Makes Money

Okasan Securities Group makes money primarily through securities-related fees and trading income generated by its brokerage and financial product distribution businesses. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Brokerage commissions and related fe...

Okasan Securities Group Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong FY2026 recovery, led by 31.6% revenue growth, a 21% net profit margin, improved leverage, and 43B yen of operating cash flow. Historical earnings and cash-flow volatility limits the score.

Income Statement

82Very Positive

Balance Sheet

75Positive

Cash Flow

78Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	111.49B	101.97B	79.87B	82.52B	64.89B	72.56B
Gross Profit	105.64B	91.37B	79.87B	82.52B	64.89B	72.56B
EBITDA	39.03B	31.28B	22.15B	23.38B	7.41B	19.52B
Net Income	27.64B	21.36B	11.65B	13.17B	529.00M	10.07B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.57T	1.40T	1.38T	1.21T	876.06B	816.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	681.67B	604.27B	51.50B	514.07B	91.71B	90.06B
Total Debt	146.54B	136.33B	685.80B	166.09B	177.05B	165.12B
Total Liabilities	1.33T	1.17T	1.17T	993.63B	690.42B	626.71B
Stockholders Equity	235.03B	230.97B	208.23B	199.16B	173.44B	168.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	41.00B	-24.21B	-6.48B	-8.85B	-5.74B
Operating Cash Flow	0	43.33B	-20.69B	-4.76B	-1.36B	-4.20B
Investing Cash Flow	0	43.39B	6.18B	2.39B	1.67B	7.04B
Financing Cash Flow	0	-35.01B	-18.50B	-4.41B	16.58B	13.26B

Okasan Securities Group Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price1011.00

Price Trends

50DMA1186.32Negative

100DMA1102.58Negative

200DMA984.76Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-44.18Positive

RSI25.45Positive

STOCH21.09Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8609, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1011.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1143.80, below the 50-day MA of 1186.32, and above the 200-day MA of 984.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -44.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.45 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:8609.

Okasan Securities Group Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

JP:8609 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:8707	89Outperform	JPY 89.14B	7.34	―	6.06%	33.17%	48.82%
JP:8628	76Outperform	JPY 260.91B	13.49	23.59%	5.22%	46.94%	77.06%
JP:8609	72Outperform	JPY 223.43B	7.53	―	3.96%	35.90%	141.44%
JP:8601	71Outperform	JPY 2.30T	11.75	11.45%	4.00%	18.37%	32.99%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
JP:8698	64Neutral	JPY 155.30B	14.19	8.82%	4.97%	16.13%	―
JP:8604	63Neutral	JPY 4.30T	10.53	11.08%	3.94%	11.75%	13.33%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:8609 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:8609	Okasan Securities Group Inc.	1011.00	357.53	54.71%
JP:8601	Daiwa Inc	1698.50	554.26	48.44%
JP:8698	Monex Group	620.00	-59.72	-8.79%
JP:8628	Matsui Securities Co	1015.00	284.58	38.96%
JP:8604	Nomura Holdings	1496.00	433.37	40.78%
JP:8707	IwaiCosmo Holdings, Inc.	3795.00	1132.00	42.51%

Okasan Securities Group Inc. Corporate Events

Okasan Securities Group Delivers Strong Interim Profit Amid Market-Driven Uncertainty

Oct 29, 2026

Okasan Securities Group reported a sharp improvement in results for the six months ended September 30, 2026, with operating revenue rising 31.9% year on year to ¥56.8 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent surging 89.4% to ¥11....

Okasan Securities Group Posts Strong Profit Rebound in First Quarter FY2026

Aug 5, 2026

Okasan Securities Group Inc. reported a sharp improvement in results for the three months ended June 30, 2026, with operating revenue rising 64.9% year on year to ¥31.57 billion and net operating revenue up 66.6%. Operating profit jumped to &#16...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2026

Okasan Securities Group Inc. AI Stock Analysis