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Nakayama Steel Works,Ltd. (5408) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:5408

Nakayama Steel Works,Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:5408)

Select Model
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:JPY 518.00▲(0.78% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/10/26

The score is held back primarily by very weak technicals (price below all key moving averages with strongly bearish momentum signals). Financial performance is mixed: the balance sheet is conservative and cash flow improved in 2026, but multi-year revenue declines and a sharp drop in net income reduce confidence in near-term fundamentals. Valuation helps offset these risks with a low P/E and a healthy dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Conservative Balance SheetVery low leverage and steadily rising equity provide financial resilience through steel-market downturns. This structure reduces dependence on borrowing, preserves capacity to fund operations, and gives Nakayama greater flexibility to absorb cyclical pressure over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent Revenue DeclineThree consecutive years of annual revenue contraction indicate sustained pressure on sales momentum rather than a single temporary setback. Continued top-line weakness could limit operating leverage, reduce reinvestment capacity, and make a durable earnings recovery more difficult.

Nakayama Steel Works,Ltd. (5408) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%JP:5408-7.87%EWJ+15.75%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 30.91B
Dividend Yield
3.70%
Average Volume (3M)
235.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
9.5
Beta (1Y)
0.70
Revenue Growth
-6.05%
EPS Growth
-30.30%
Country
Japan
Employees
1,285
Sector
Basic Materials
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Steel

Nakayama Steel Works,Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Operating in Japan, Nakayama Steel Works, Ltd. is a diversified company with core operations in steel production, engineering, building materials, and real estate. Its extensive steel product portfolio includes various coil types such as hot-rolled,...

Nakayama Steel Works,Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength (low leverage with debt-to-equity ~0.09–0.11 and rising equity through 2026) supports resilience in a cyclical steel market, and cash flow improved materially in 2026 (operating cash flow 15.2B; free cash flow 10.2B). However, financial performance is capped by weakening fundamentals: revenue declined for three consecutive years and net income fell sharply from 10.2B (2023) to 2.5B (2026), alongside margin compression.

Income Statement

56Neutral

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

63Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue147.71B148.31B169.33B184.44B188.51B166.70B
Gross Profit17.54B18.54B22.08B25.16B26.06B19.80B
EBITDA6.37B6.64B11.52B15.05B16.61B9.46B
Net Income3.29B2.46B5.70B8.90B10.23B4.82B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets157.16B152.37B149.15B152.09B148.79B143.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments26.28B23.25B15.35B16.49B16.77B15.77B
Total Debt8.38B8.52B9.45B9.87B10.74B16.21B
Total Liabilities46.32B43.22B42.33B47.53B51.92B54.68B
Stockholders Equity110.83B109.15B106.81B104.55B96.86B88.93B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow010.16B2.99B1.35B9.28B-11.29B
Operating Cash Flow015.24B7.38B5.15B13.01B-8.76B
Investing Cash Flow0-5.00B-4.88B-2.30B-3.46B-2.31B
Financing Cash Flow0-2.33B-3.63B-3.14B-8.54B8.39B

Nakayama Steel Works,Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price514.00

Price Trends

50DMA599.95Negative
100DMA609.28Negative
200DMA610.99Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-25.99Positive
RSI24.58Positive
STOCH14.92Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5408, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 514.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 562.75, below the 50-day MA of 599.95, and below the 200-day MA of 610.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -25.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.58 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:5408.

Nakayama Steel Works,Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:5408 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:5451JP:545184OutperformJPY 212.05B9.2610.70%6.64%-2.46%56.68%
JP:5463JP:546371OutperformJPY 387.96B12.61―3.14%4.20%2.18%
JP:5471JP:547169NeutralJPY 392.82B10.487.98%2.80%8.38%34.65%
JP:5440JP:544067NeutralJPY 73.58B9.65―5.27%6.83%-31.05%
Sector *61Neutral$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
JP:5423JP:542360NeutralJPY 188.49B19.234.29%2.57%-0.62%-39.61%
JP:5408JP:540858NeutralJPY 34.46B9.49―3.70%-6.05%-30.30%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-25%0%25%50%75%JP:5408JP:5471JP:5423JP:5451JP:5440JP:5463Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:5408 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:5408Nakayama Steel Works,Ltd.514.00-44.90-8.03%
JP:5471Daido Steel Co 1964.50478.5532.20%
JP:5423Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co 1749.00378.6427.63%
JP:5451Yodogawa Steel Works, Ltd.1370.00190.0316.11%
JP:5440Kyoei Steel Ltd.1708.00-487.64-22.21%
JP:5463Maruichi Steel Tube Ltd.1638.50347.1726.88%

Nakayama Steel Works,Ltd. Corporate Events

Nakayama Steel Profit Rises Despite Sharp Operating Decline

Nov 5, 2026

Nakayama Steel Works reported six-month net sales of ¥75.225 billion, down 1.8% year on year, while operating profit fell 69.8% to ¥910 million. Ordinary profit shifted to a ¥182 million loss from a ¥2.932 billion profit, although profit attributable...

Nakayama Steel Restarts Fire-Hit Funamachi Mill, Evaluates Financial Impact

Oct 19, 2026

Nakayama Steel Works, Ltd. has resumed operations at the Funamachi Plant’s hot strip and plate mill following a fire that occurred on September 12, 2026, after completing inspections, restoration work, and safety confirmations with relevant organizat...

Nakayama Steel Works Raises ¥8.7 Billion Via Third-Party Share Allotment to Hanwa and YODOKO

Oct 2, 2026

Nakayama Steel Works has completed payment for a third-party allotment of new and treasury shares to Hanwa Co., Ltd. and YODOKO, Ltd., raising approximately ¥8.69 billion at an issue price of ¥666 per share. As a result of the transaction, Hanwa has...

Nakayama Steel Targets Mid-October Restart at Fire-Hit Funamachi Mill

Sep 28, 2026

Nakayama Steel Works said operations at the hot strip and plate mill of its Funamachi Plant remain suspended following a fire on September 12, 2026, but an on-site inspection found only minor damage to the furnace equipment itself, with some power ca...

Nakayama Steel Works Halts Mill After Fire at Osaka Funamachi Plant

Sep 16, 2026

Nakayama Steel Works, Ltd. reported that a fire broke out at around 2:50 a.m. on September 12, 2026, at the hot strip and plate mill of its Funamachi Plant in Osaka. The blaze was extinguished within about 30 minutes and, while some power cables for...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 10, 2026