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Tokai Carbon Co (5301) AI Stock Analysis

2 Followers
JP:5301

Tokai Carbon Co

(TSE/TYO:5301)

Select Model
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:JPY 1,809.00â–²(11.02% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:09/10/26

The overall score of 72 is primarily driven by exceptional technical momentum and a stabilizing financial foundation. The company's successful return to profitability and strong cash flow are major strengths. However, ongoing revenue declines, climbing debt, and a moderate valuation multiple pose secondary risks that warrant monitoring.

Positive Factors
Consistent Operating Cash FlowConsistent operating cash generation provides liquidity to fund operations and absorb normal industry cycles. It also gives Tokai Carbon more flexibility to maintain customer service, invest in specialized products, and manage obligations even when reported earnings fluctuate.
Negative Factors
Volatile ProfitabilityThe sharp swing from a substantial loss to a rebound shows that earnings remain sensitive to operating conditions and product-cycle changes. Such volatility can make internal funding less predictable and limit confidence in the sustainability of near-term returns across business segments.

Tokai Carbon Co (5301) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-25%0%25%50%75%100%125%150%JP:5301+70.33%EWJ+16.06%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 1.88B
Dividend Yield
2.15%
Average Volume (3M)
1.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
17.2
Beta (1Y)
1.27
Revenue Growth
9.28%
EPS Growth
―
Country
Japan
Employees
4,436
Sector
Basic Materials
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Chemicals - Specialty

Tokai Carbon Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd., headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, is a leading provider and manufacturer of a broad spectrum of carbon-based goods and services. The company's offerings include high-performance graphite electrodes, indispensable for electric arc...

How the Company Makes Money

Tokai Carbon makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling carbon and graphite products to industrial customers worldwide. A major revenue stream comes from graphite electrodes used in electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production; revenue in this...

Tokai Carbon Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tokai Carbon demonstrates a solid financial turnaround, swinging to a net profit and maintaining robust free cash flow. However, the score is tempered by a 4.2% decline in revenue and rising debt levels.

Income Statement

62Positive

Balance Sheet

68Positive

Cash Flow

72Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue359.30B322.96B350.11B363.95B340.37B258.87B
Gross Profit86.79B74.85B62.21B81.49B78.25B56.04B
EBITDA54.28B66.35B-3.95B80.78B78.14B54.27B
Net Income19.98B20.08B-56.73B25.47B22.42B16.11B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets683.56B664.03B658.78B640.00B576.47B512.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments93.47B90.16B92.21B77.47B70.91B78.86B
Total Debt215.16B207.34B199.11B171.28B171.45B171.97B
Total Liabilities327.93B311.18B333.62B279.90B275.59B255.93B
Stockholders Equity316.57B318.36B289.56B324.49B268.83B229.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow014.77B10.91B16.71B-2.78B9.12B
Operating Cash Flow055.87B64.47B62.07B41.20B38.07B
Investing Cash Flow0-51.05B-70.78B-47.63B-49.90B-35.28B
Financing Cash Flow0-7.69B9.41B-14.51B-10.63B1.21B

Tokai Carbon Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price1629.50

Price Trends

50DMA1995.41Negative
100DMA1839.59Negative
200DMA1520.48Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-122.68Positive
RSI33.45Neutral
STOCH36.87Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5301, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1629.50 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1822.97, below the 50-day MA of 1995.41, and above the 200-day MA of 1520.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -122.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:5301.

Tokai Carbon Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:5301 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:4064JP:406479OutperformJPY 38.03B13.02―2.95%4.34%-1.04%
JP:5302JP:530276OutperformJPY 53.51B21.744.48%4.15%1.48%-57.60%
JP:5301JP:530172OutperformJPY 332.99B17.176.28%2.15%9.28%―
JP:5304JP:530469NeutralJPY 44.75B89.41―4.65%-3.28%-88.36%
JP:4092JP:409264NeutralJPY 43.08B10.95―3.99%3.00%60.05%
Sector *61Neutral$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
JP:4027JP:402756NeutralJPY 54.24B100.16―3.21%17.12%-71.60%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%50%100%JP:5301JP:5302JP:4027JP:4064JP:4092JP:5304Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:5301 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:5301Tokai Carbon Co 1629.50625.4162.29%
JP:5302Nippon Carbon Co 4820.00550.4112.89%
JP:4027Tayca Corporation2490.001225.0696.85%
JP:4064Nippon Carbide Industries Company,Incorporated4005.001686.0972.71%
JP:4092Nippon Chemical Industrial Co., Ltd.4515.002089.7086.16%
JP:5304SEC Carbon Ltd.2152.0023.481.10%

Tokai Carbon Co Corporate Events

Tokai Carbon Reports Higher Nine-Month Sales and Operating Profit

Nov 5, 2026

Tokai Carbon Co. reported consolidated financial results for the nine months ended September 30, 2026. The release provides no specific description of the company’s industries, products, or market focus.Net sales increased 15.3% year-on-year to ¥273....

Tokai Carbon to Cancel 3.93% of Treasury Shares, Tightening Share Base

Aug 24, 2026

Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. has announced that its Board of Directors approved the cancellation of 8,831,200 treasury shares, equivalent to 3.93% of the company’s issued common stock. Following the cancellation, scheduled for August 31, 2026, the total nu...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 10, 2026