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Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated (4890) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:4890

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated

(TSE/TYO:4890)

Select Model
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:JPY 214.00▼(-8.15% Downside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/25/26

The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance—especially the severe 2026 revenue decline, deep losses, and sustained negative operating/free cash flow—despite a relatively low-debt balance sheet. Technical indicators also lean bearish with the stock trading below key moving averages and a negative MACD. Valuation provides limited support because the negative P/E is driven by losses and no dividend yield is available.

Positive Factors
Conservative leverageVery low debt relative to equity gives the company a comparatively conservative capital structure and reduces balance-sheet pressure while operations fluctuate. This can preserve financial flexibility for research, product development, and commercialization efforts if management can restore operating performance.
Negative Factors
Severe revenue contractionThe sharp 2026 revenue collapse signals significant weakness in demand, commercialization, or business execution and makes the earnings base difficult to rely on. Such a contraction can impair investment capacity, reduce scale benefits, and prolong the time needed to rebuild sustainable growth.

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated (4890) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:4890-28.75%EWJ+15.75%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 5.67B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
39.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-8.4
Beta (1Y)
0.37
Revenue Growth
-39.46%
EPS Growth
-317.84%
Country
Japan
Employees
22
Sector
Healthcare
Sector Strength
51
Industry
Specialty Business Services

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Operating from Tokyo, Japan since its establishment in 2012, Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated is dedicated to the research and development of pharmaceutical products and medical devices, specifically targeting the treatment of myopia, dry eyes, and pr...

How the Company Makes Money

The company primarily makes money by commercializing ophthalmology-related offerings, which typically includes monetization from product and/or service sales tied to eye-care solutions and potentially revenues associated with research and development...

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are dominated by a sharp 2026 deterioration: revenue collapsed (-85.3% YoY) with deeply negative profitability (net margin -381%) and continued cash burn. While the balance sheet is conservatively financed with low leverage and substantial equity, operating volatility and weak cash flow (negative operating cash flow in 2024–2026, including a very large outflow in 2026) significantly weaken overall financial quality.

Income Statement

27Negative

Balance Sheet

73Positive

Cash Flow

18Very Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue390.58M200.02M1.36B673.53M954.69M640.92M
Gross Profit148.27M131.57M1.15B-9.48M686.83M528.76M
EBITDA-720.42M-765.24M262.46M-609.24M206.22M173.87M
Net Income-693.63M-761.82M205.77M-641.32M90.18M153.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.31B1.32B2.50B2.30B2.67B1.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments699.26M969.85M1.54B1.88B2.16B1.17B
Total Debt63.64M69.21M90.38M116.90M139.34M223.82M
Total Liabilities578.57M454.92M915.85M927.93M722.59M873.44M
Stockholders Equity733.83M863.86M1.59B1.37B1.95B744.35M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0-586.61M-331.75M-313.35M-15.27M582.69M
Operating Cash Flow0-577.83M-317.75M-301.35M28.49M654.91M
Investing Cash Flow0-8.41M-14.55M-12.00M-54.03M-72.23M
Financing Cash Flow017.23M-12.25M35.74M1.01B-18.53M

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price233.00

Price Trends

50DMA260.36Negative
100DMA253.71Negative
200DMA274.87Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-8.10Positive
RSI40.54Neutral
STOCH43.69Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4890, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 233.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 246.50, below the 50-day MA of 260.36, and below the 200-day MA of 274.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4890.

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

JP:4890 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:3391JP:339181OutperformJPY 1.13T19.417.13%1.91%――
JP:7649JP:764969NeutralJPY 528.15B16.799.94%1.30%8.97%-29.54%
JP:9989JP:998969NeutralJPY 452.96B14.3711.15%3.43%4.32%0.18%
JP:3549JP:354962NeutralJPY 486.01B25.22―0.29%12.54%15.87%
JP:3349JP:334960NeutralJPY 502.83B15.48―1.31%8.99%3.61%
Sector *51Neutral$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
JP:4890JP:489044NeutralJPY 6.13B-8.36――-39.46%-317.84%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%JP:4890JP:9989JP:7649JP:3391JP:3349JP:3549Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:4890 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:4890Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated233.00-100.00-30.03%
JP:9989Sundrug Co 3848.00-263.45-6.41%
JP:7649Sugi Holdings Co 1345.00-419.08-23.76%
JP:3391TSURUHA Holdings 2455.50-241.32-8.95%
JP:3349COSMOS Pharmaceutical Corporation6236.00-1078.62-14.75%
JP:3549KUSURI NO AOKI HOLDINGS CO.,LTD.5084.001137.9628.84%

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Corporate Events

Tsubota Laboratory Reports ¥491 Million Six-Month Revenue and Operating Loss

Nov 12, 2026

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange under code 4890, reported consolidated revenue of ¥491 million for the six months ended September 30, 2026, alongside an operating loss of ¥331 million, an ordinary loss of ¥294 mill...

Tsubota Laboratory Narrows Quarterly Loss as Revenue Surges and Eyes Full-Year Profit

Aug 13, 2026

Tsubota Laboratory reported a sharp increase in first-quarter revenue to ¥215 million, up more than eightfold year on year, while still posting a net loss of ¥134 million, which narrowed from the prior-year period. The company’s equity ratio declined...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 25, 2026