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Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated (4890) AI Stock Analysis

JP:4890

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated

(TSE/TYO:4890)

Select Model
Rating:38Underperform
Price Target:JPY 236.00â–¼(-0.84% Downside)
Action:downgraded
Date:10/25/26

The overall score is critically low, driven primarily by a severe deterioration in financial performance, including collapsing revenue, large net losses, and persistent cash burn. Technicals confirm a sustained downtrend with bearish momentum, and the negative P/E ratio offers no valuation support. The company's low debt is the only minor positive, but it is insufficient to offset the fundamental and market-based risks.

Positive Factors
Low LeverageA conservatively financed balance sheet gives Tsubota Laboratory a meaningful cushion while operations fluctuate. Low leverage limits interest and refinancing pressure, preserving financial flexibility to support ophthalmology development and absorb periods of weak earnings.
Negative Factors
Revenue CollapseThe severe 2026 revenue contraction weakens the scale and visibility of Tsubota Laboratory’s ophthalmology business. A decline of this magnitude can reduce fixed-cost absorption, disrupt the path to sustainable earnings, and make future operating performance highly dependent on recovery.

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated (4890) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:4890-25.69%EWJ+15.87%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 6.27B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
40.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-9.0
Beta (1Y)
0.27
Revenue Growth
-71.21%
EPS Growth
-485.42%
Country
Japan
Employees
22
Sector
Healthcare
Sector Strength
51
Industry
Specialty Business Services

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Operating from Tokyo, Japan since its establishment in 2012, Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated is dedicated to the research and development of pharmaceutical products and medical devices, specifically targeting the treatment of myopia, dry eyes, and pr...

How the Company Makes Money

The company primarily makes money by commercializing ophthalmology-related offerings, which typically includes monetization from product and/or service sales tied to eye-care solutions and potentially revenues associated with research and development...

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial health is precarious. The income statement shows an 85% revenue collapse and a -381% net margin in 2026. Cash flow is deeply negative for three consecutive years, burning ¥577.8M in operations. The balance sheet is eroding, with equity halving, though low debt (D/E 0.08) provides a minimal cushion. Overall, severe losses and cash burn dominate.

Income Statement

20Very Negative

Balance Sheet

45Neutral

Cash Flow

15Very Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue390.58M200.02M1.36B673.53M954.69M640.92M
Gross Profit148.27M131.57M1.15B-9.48M686.83M528.76M
EBITDA-720.42M-765.24M262.46M-609.24M206.22M173.87M
Net Income-693.63M-761.82M205.77M-641.32M90.18M153.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.31B1.32B2.50B2.30B2.67B1.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments699.26M969.85M1.54B1.88B2.16B1.17B
Total Debt63.64M69.21M90.38M116.90M139.34M223.82M
Total Liabilities578.57M454.92M915.85M927.93M722.59M873.44M
Stockholders Equity733.83M863.86M1.59B1.37B1.95B744.35M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0-586.61M-331.75M-313.35M-15.27M582.69M
Operating Cash Flow0-577.83M-317.75M-301.35M28.49M654.91M
Investing Cash Flow0-8.41M-14.55M-12.00M-54.03M-72.23M
Financing Cash Flow017.23M-12.25M35.74M1.01B-18.53M

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price238.00

Price Trends

50DMA267.04Negative
100DMA253.05Negative
200DMA278.55Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-4.35Positive
RSI38.53Neutral
STOCH16.98Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4890, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 238.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 255.45, below the 50-day MA of 267.04, and below the 200-day MA of 278.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4890.

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

JP:4890 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:7649JP:764969NeutralJPY 506.97B16.129.94%1.34%8.97%-29.54%
JP:9989JP:998969NeutralJPY 422.80B13.4411.15%3.65%4.32%0.18%
JP:3349JP:334960NeutralJPY 480.15B14.88―1.36%8.99%3.61%
JP:3549JP:354956NeutralJPY 418.12B21.94―0.34%12.54%15.87%
JP:3391JP:339154NeutralJPY 1.01T17.517.13%2.10%――
Sector *51Neutral$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
JP:4890JP:489038UnderperformJPY 6.31B-9.03――-71.21%-485.42%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%JP:4890JP:9989JP:7649JP:3391JP:3349JP:3549Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:4890 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:4890Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated243.00-84.00-25.69%
JP:9989Sundrug Co 3616.00-399.89-9.96%
JP:7649Sugi Holdings Co 1304.50-340.92-20.72%
JP:3391TSURUHA Holdings 2236.00-391.62-14.90%
JP:3349COSMOS Pharmaceutical Corporation6032.00-789.24-11.57%
JP:3549KUSURI NO AOKI HOLDINGS CO.,LTD.4373.00523.5413.60%

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Corporate Events

Tsubota Laboratory Narrows Quarterly Loss as Revenue Surges and Eyes Full-Year Profit

Aug 13, 2026

Tsubota Laboratory reported a sharp increase in first-quarter revenue to ¥215 million, up more than eightfold year on year, while still posting a net loss of ¥134 million, which narrowed from the prior-year period. The company’s equit...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 25, 2026