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Commerce One Holdings, Inc. (4496) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:4496

Commerce One Holdings, Inc.

(TSE/TYO:4496)

Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:JPY 824.00▲(9.43% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/19/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (especially the low-leverage balance sheet and solid profitability), partially offset by weak near-term technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is supportive with a reasonable P/E and a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Very Low Financial LeverageThe exceptionally conservative balance sheet limits refinancing and interest-rate risk. It also gives Commerce One financial flexibility to absorb volatility, fund product investment, or pursue growth without heavy reliance on borrowing.
Negative Factors
Margin CompressionLower margins than the company’s historical peak indicate reduced profitability headroom. If this persists, revenue growth may translate less efficiently into earnings and leave the business more exposed to costs, pricing pressure, or increased investment needs.

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. (4496) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:4496-2.91%EWJ+15.75%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 5.17B
Dividend Yield
2.71%
Average Volume (3M)
5,025
Price to Earnings (P/E)
19.1
Beta (1Y)
0.27
Revenue Growth
6.91%
EPS Growth
94.01%
Country
Japan
Employees
191
Sector
General
Sector Strength
55
Industry
Software - Infrastructure

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commerce One Holdings Inc. provides solutions for e-commerce business operators to start and operate their businesses in Japan. The company provides futureshop, a SaaS e-commerce platform that includes commerce creator. It also offers package softwar...

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals supported by a very conservative balance sheet (very low leverage) and solid profitability. Key risks are margin compression versus prior peak years and historically volatile operating cash flow, despite strong recent free-cash-flow conversion.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

90Very Positive

Cash Flow

65Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.96B3.90B3.69B3.56B3.20B2.94B
Gross Profit2.14B2.13B2.10B2.02B1.80B1.70B
EBITDA565.94M632.40M483.08M846.67M798.20M808.32M
Net Income273.53M302.31M91.59M414.86M441.36M495.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.57B3.63B3.47B3.88B3.51B3.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.68B1.88B1.86B1.73B1.61B1.64B
Total Debt49.37M50.38M70.62M53.92M57.54M14.15M
Total Liabilities966.49M1.00B948.30M1.04B889.59M822.17M
Stockholders Equity2.60B2.62B2.52B2.84B2.62B2.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow385.72M303.28M479.30M775.37M156.29M514.26M
Operating Cash Flow393.03M312.72M532.78M778.61M163.97M515.51M
Investing Cash Flow-25.89M-82.82M-182.39M-367.76M-56.40M-111.19M
Financing Cash Flow-272.65M-236.94M-213.37M-307.41M-142.77M-3.68M

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price753.00

Price Trends

50DMA762.51Negative
100DMA767.59Negative
200DMA750.28Positive

Market Momentum

MACD1.29Positive
RSI42.20Neutral
STOCH56.83Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4496, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 753.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 780.45, below the 50-day MA of 762.51, and above the 200-day MA of 750.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4496.

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:4496 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:4431JP:443183OutperformJPY 69.65B26.02―0.67%20.70%56.44%
JP:4374JP:437475OutperformJPY 9.26B14.90―1.16%15.31%40.40%
JP:3623JP:362371OutperformJPY 7.09B13.32―2.32%13.23%40.67%
JP:3769JP:376969NeutralJPY 657.63B25.7421.67%1.98%13.19%25.73%
JP:3633JP:363367NeutralJPY 12.31B7.77―2.88%-3.72%138.33%
JP:4496JP:449667NeutralJPY 5.52B19.15―2.71%6.91%94.01%
Sector *55Neutral$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%JP:4496JP:3769JP:3623JP:3633JP:4374JP:4431Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:4496 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:4496Commerce One Holdings, Inc.753.00-18.73-2.43%
JP:3769GMO Payment Gateway 8600.00239.872.87%
JP:3623Billing System Corporation1105.0068.566.61%
JP:3633GMO Pepabo, Inc.2406.00306.0414.57%
JP:4374ROBOT PAYMENT INC.1203.00-211.24-14.94%
JP:4431Smaregi, Inc.3590.00746.5026.25%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2026