Commerce One Holdings, Inc. (4496) AI Stock Analysis

Commerce One Holdings, Inc.

(TSE/TYO:4496)

Select Model

Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:JPY 808.00▲(3.19% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/19/26

The overall score of 63 reflects a company with a strong balance sheet and high growth, but facing significant headwinds. The primary positive is the fortress-like financial position and excellent cash conversion, which provides stability. This is countered by the primary risk: deteriorating profitability as rapid expansion compresses margins. Technicals are a clear negative, with the stock in a downtrend and showing weak momentum, suggesting the market is already pricing in these fundamental concerns. The valuation is fair, with the dividend yield offering some downside cushion.

Positive Factors

Very Low Financial LeverageThe exceptionally conservative balance sheet limits refinancing and interest-rate risk. It also gives Commerce One financial flexibility to absorb volatility, fund product investment, or pursue growth without heavy reliance on borrowing.

Negative Factors

Margin CompressionLower margins than the company’s historical peak indicate reduced profitability headroom. If this persists, revenue growth may translate less efficiently into earnings and leave the business more exposed to costs, pricing pressure, or increased investment needs.

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. (4496) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 5.47B
Dividend Yield: 2.60%
Average Volume (3M): 5,308
Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.2
Beta (1Y): 0.27
Revenue Growth: 6.91%
EPS Growth: 94.01%
Country: Japan
Employees: 191
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Software - Infrastructure

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commerce One Holdings Inc. provides solutions for e-commerce business operators to start and operate their businesses in Japan. The company provides futureshop, a SaaS e-commerce platform that includes commerce creator. It also offers package softwar...

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (+168.6% TTM) and a pristine, nearly debt-free balance sheet (D/E 0.019) are offset by significant margin compression. Net margin fell from 16.9% to 6.9% TTM, and ROE halved. Cash flow conversion is excellent (FCF/NI 0.98), but historical volatility is a concern. Overall, financial safety is high, but profitability trends are weakening.

Income Statement

62Positive

Balance Sheet

85Very Positive

Cash Flow

72Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.96B	3.90B	3.69B	3.56B	3.20B	2.94B
Gross Profit	2.14B	2.13B	2.10B	2.02B	1.80B	1.70B
EBITDA	565.94M	632.40M	483.08M	846.67M	798.20M	808.32M
Net Income	273.53M	302.31M	91.59M	414.86M	441.36M	495.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.57B	3.63B	3.47B	3.88B	3.51B	3.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.68B	1.88B	1.86B	1.73B	1.61B	1.64B
Total Debt	49.37M	50.38M	70.62M	53.92M	57.54M	14.15M
Total Liabilities	966.49M	1.00B	948.30M	1.04B	889.59M	822.17M
Stockholders Equity	2.60B	2.62B	2.52B	2.84B	2.62B	2.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	385.72M	303.28M	479.30M	775.37M	156.29M	514.26M
Operating Cash Flow	393.03M	312.72M	532.78M	778.61M	163.97M	515.51M
Investing Cash Flow	-25.89M	-82.82M	-182.39M	-367.76M	-56.40M	-111.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-272.65M	-236.94M	-213.37M	-307.41M	-142.77M	-3.68M

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price783.00

Price Trends

50DMA759.46Positive

100DMA766.89Positive

200DMA750.17Positive

Market Momentum

MACD12.19Negative

RSI55.02Neutral

STOCH60.96Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4496, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 783.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 771.45, above the 50-day MA of 759.46, and above the 200-day MA of 750.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 12.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4496.

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:4496 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:3623	88Outperform	JPY 7.82B	14.92	―	2.10%	13.25%	35.07%
JP:4431	83Outperform	JPY 74.15B	28.79	―	0.63%	20.70%	56.44%
JP:4374	75Outperform	JPY 9.34B	14.91	―	1.16%	15.31%	40.40%
JP:3769	69Neutral	JPY 649.44B	25.77	21.67%	1.99%	13.19%	25.73%
JP:3633	67Neutral	JPY 12.50B	7.84	―	2.84%	-3.72%	138.33%
JP:4496	63Neutral	JPY 5.66B	20.23	―	2.60%	6.91%	94.01%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:4496 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:4496	Commerce One Holdings, Inc.	787.00	17.19	2.23%
JP:3769	GMO Payment Gateway	8563.00	298.00	3.61%
JP:3623	Billing System Corporation	1227.00	196.41	19.06%
JP:3633	GMO Pepabo, Inc.	2362.00	373.27	18.77%
JP:4374	ROBOT PAYMENT INC.	1205.00	-199.34	-14.19%
JP:4431	Smaregi, Inc.	3790.00	968.31	34.32%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2026

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. AI Stock Analysis