Toagosei Co (4045) AI Stock Analysis

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Toagosei Co

(TSE/TYO:4045)

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Rating:67Neutral

Price Target:JPY 1,954.00▲(8.50% Upside)

Action:downgraded

Date:11/05/26

The score is supported primarily by strong financial stability (low leverage and solid margins) and a reasonable valuation with an attractive dividend yield. These positives are tempered by weak free cash flow in the last two years and soft near-term technical momentum (negative MACD, RSI below 50, and trading below short-term moving averages).

Positive Factors

Conservative Balance SheetLow leverage and steadily expanding equity provide a meaningful cushion through business cycles. This strengthens financial resilience, reduces dependence on external funding, and preserves capacity to support operations or investment even when industry conditions soften.

Negative Factors

Negative Free Cash FlowRepeated negative free cash flow means earnings are not currently translating into surplus cash after investment and working-capital needs. That can reduce funding flexibility, increase reliance on operating cash flow or the balance sheet, and constrain discretionary capital allocation.

Toagosei Co (4045) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 1.16B
Dividend Yield: 3.80%
Average Volume (3M): 224.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.2
Beta (1Y): 0.65
Revenue Growth: 2.33%
EPS Growth: 50.31%
Country: Japan
Employees: 2,680
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Chemicals - Specialty

Toagosei Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Toagosei Co., Ltd. Manufactures and sells chemical products. The company operates through Core Chemicals Business, Polymer/Oligomer Business, Adhesive Materials Business, High-performance Materials Business, Resin Processed Products Business, and Oth...

Toagosei Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is solid (2025 gross margin ~29%, net margin ~7.9%) and the balance sheet is conservatively financed with low leverage (debt-to-equity rising to ~0.10 in 2025 but still modest). The key drag is cash flow quality: free cash flow has been negative in 2024–2025 (2025 about -¥5.7B) despite steady operating cash flow, and operating margin has declined from the 2021 peak (2025 ~8.7% vs. ~12.1% in 2021).

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

86Very Positive

Cash Flow

48Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	164.37B	162.31B	167.59B	159.37B	160.82B	156.31B
Gross Profit	49.48B	47.13B	45.71B	41.37B	42.93B	45.34B
EBITDA	30.34B	29.24B	28.01B	27.88B	27.87B	29.52B
Net Income	13.07B	12.77B	11.88B	12.18B	12.49B	13.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	296.71B	289.11B	278.02B	272.29B	265.13B	258.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.02B	31.52B	41.82B	56.11B	58.37B	75.46B
Total Debt	20.57B	21.81B	12.30B	12.35B	12.38B	11.49B
Total Liabilities	75.71B	73.16B	64.35B	59.76B	54.33B	52.34B
Stockholders Equity	219.80B	214.81B	212.59B	211.51B	205.97B	201.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	-5.68B	-1.86B	9.98B	-9.31B	9.70B
Operating Cash Flow	0	22.29B	20.18B	21.64B	10.99B	21.22B
Investing Cash Flow	0	-29.64B	-13.59B	-3.53B	-3.58B	-10.24B
Financing Cash Flow	0	-4.50B	-14.51B	-15.52B	-9.46B	-8.64B

Toagosei Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price1801.00

Price Trends

50DMA1828.16Negative

100DMA1798.76Positive

200DMA1764.10Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-2.33Positive

RSI43.58Neutral

STOCH41.19Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4045, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1801.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1823.65, below the 50-day MA of 1828.16, and above the 200-day MA of 1764.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:4045.

Toagosei Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:4045 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:4114	75Outperform	JPY 382.38B	16.48	―	5.30%	3.57%	35.54%
JP:4042	75Outperform	JPY 811.27B	14.51	6.64%	3.95%	-0.63%	15.92%
JP:4041	74Outperform	JPY 194.56B	10.58	―	4.80%	-1.25%	34.70%
JP:4045	67Neutral	JPY 191.96B	14.17	6.32%	3.80%	2.33%	50.31%
JP:3405	55Neutral	JPY 564.63B	71.57	1.03%	2.85%	2.93%	-46.99%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
JP:4061	49Neutral	JPY 264.04B	18.90	4.48%	3.34%	-2.99%	―

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:4045 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:4045	Toagosei Co	1801.00	325.18	22.03%
JP:4061	Denka Co	2990.00	789.36	35.87%
JP:3405	Kuraray Co	1860.50	237.72	14.65%
JP:4042	Tosoh Corporation	2531.50	373.56	17.31%
JP:4041	Nippon Soda Co., Ltd.	3545.00	207.43	6.21%
JP:4114	Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd.	2509.00	821.35	48.67%

Toagosei Co Corporate Events

Toagosei Posts Strong Nine-Month Results and Plans Higher Dividend for 2026

Oct 30, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. is a Japanese chemical producer listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that supplies industrial and specialty chemical products, supporting a wide range of manufacturing applications. The company positions itself as a stable player in...

Toagosei lifts interim dividend as first-half profits rise and revises 2026 outlook

Aug 26, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. reported consolidated net sales of ¥82,405 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up 2.6% year on year, with operating income rising 12.7% to ¥7,912 million and net income attributable to owners of parent increas...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026

Toagosei Co AI Stock Analysis