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Toagosei Co (4045) AI Stock Analysis

JP:4045

Toagosei Co

(TSE/TYO:4045)

Select Model
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:JPY 2,071.00â–²(14.07% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/04/26

The overall score of 76 is largely driven by robust technical momentum and an attractive valuation profile highlighted by a 3.81% dividend yield. While the company boasts a fortress-like balance sheet with low volatility, the score is moderately constrained by top-line revenue challenges and negative free cash flow.

Positive Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheetA very low debt-to-equity profile and steadily growing equity provide durable financial flexibility. This conservative capital structure reduces refinancing risk, supports investment or working-capital needs through cycles, and preserves strategic optionality for the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow conversionRepeated negative free cash flow despite steady operating cash suggests elevated capex or working-capital absorption that weakens cash conversion. This limits internally funded growth or discretionary returns and increases reliance on the balance sheet for flexibility unless conversion improves.

Toagosei Co (4045) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%JP:4045+25.14%EWJ+15.87%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 1.16B
Dividend Yield
3.77%
Average Volume (3M)
229.46K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
14.9
Beta (1Y)
0.65
Revenue Growth
2.33%
EPS Growth
50.31%
Country
Japan
Employees
2,680
Sector
General
Sector Strength
55
Industry
Chemicals - Specialty

Toagosei Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Toagosei Co., Ltd. Manufactures and sells chemical products. The company operates through Core Chemicals Business, Polymer/Oligomer Business, Adhesive Materials Business, High-performance Materials Business, Resin Processed Products Business, and Oth...

How the Company Makes Money

Toagosei makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling chemical products and materials to industrial customers. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of acrylic-related products (e.g., acrylic monomers and/or acrylic-based intermediates/materials...

Toagosei Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

A pristine balance sheet with exceptionally low leverage and improving profit margins offset concerns over recent revenue contraction and negative free cash flow.

Income Statement

62Positive

Balance Sheet

88Very Positive

Cash Flow

52Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue164.37B162.31B167.59B159.37B160.82B156.31B
Gross Profit49.48B47.13B45.71B41.37B42.93B45.34B
EBITDA30.34B29.24B28.01B27.88B27.87B29.52B
Net Income13.07B12.77B11.88B12.18B12.49B13.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets296.71B289.11B278.02B272.29B265.13B258.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments22.02B31.52B41.82B56.11B58.37B75.46B
Total Debt20.57B21.81B12.30B12.35B12.38B11.49B
Total Liabilities75.71B73.16B64.35B59.76B54.33B52.34B
Stockholders Equity219.80B214.81B212.59B211.51B205.97B201.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0-5.68B-1.86B9.98B-9.31B9.70B
Operating Cash Flow022.29B20.18B21.64B10.99B21.22B
Investing Cash Flow0-29.64B-13.59B-3.53B-3.58B-10.24B
Financing Cash Flow0-4.50B-14.51B-15.52B-9.46B-8.64B

Toagosei Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price1815.50

Price Trends

50DMA1829.88Negative
100DMA1796.54Positive
200DMA1762.54Positive

Market Momentum

MACD1.53Positive
RSI47.10Neutral
STOCH51.14Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4045, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1815.50 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1824.27, below the 50-day MA of 1829.88, and above the 200-day MA of 1762.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:4045.

Toagosei Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:4045 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:4045JP:404576OutperformJPY 193.29B14.886.32%3.77%2.33%50.31%
JP:4114JP:411475OutperformJPY 382.15B16.70―5.19%3.57%35.54%
JP:4042JP:404275OutperformJPY 807.46B14.496.64%3.94%-0.63%15.92%
JP:4041JP:404174OutperformJPY 195.64B10.60―4.72%-1.25%34.70%
JP:3405JP:340555NeutralJPY 556.20B68.231.03%2.87%2.93%-46.99%
Sector *55Neutral$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
JP:4061JP:406149NeutralJPY 263.27B19.454.48%3.27%-2.99%―

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%25%50%75%100%JP:4045JP:4061JP:3405JP:4042JP:4041JP:4114Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:4045 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:4045Toagosei Co 1815.50344.9723.46%
JP:4061Denka Co 3055.00880.1040.47%
JP:3405Kuraray Co 1847.00233.8614.50%
JP:4042Tosoh Corporation2537.50424.2320.07%
JP:4041Nippon Soda Co., Ltd.3600.00334.0510.23%
JP:4114Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd.2563.50870.1751.39%

Toagosei Co Corporate Events

Toagosei Raises 2026 Earnings Outlook and Boosts Dividends on Strong Semiconductor Demand

Jul 31, 2026

Toagosei has raised its full-year consolidated earnings forecast for the year ending December 31, 2026, after stronger-than-expected first-half performance. The upgrade reflects robust sales of semiconductor-related products, higher volumes in its Po...

Toagosei Delivers Higher First-Half Profits and Lifts Dividend, Updates 2026 Guidance

Jul 31, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. reported consolidated net sales of ¥82.4 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, a 2.6% year-on-year increase, with operating income up 12.7% and ordinary profit up 14.4%. Net income attributable to owners of the paren...

Toagosei Completes ¥3 Billion Share Buyback Program

Jul 10, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. has completed a scheduled acquisition of its own common shares, buying 166,800 shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between July 1 and 9, 2026 for a total of ¥293,405,900. This latest purchase forms part of a broader buyback pro...

Toagosei Nears Completion of ¥3 Billion Share Buyback Program

Jul 1, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. has disclosed the progress of its share buyback program for June, reporting the acquisition of 249,000 common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange at a total cost of about 429.9 million yen. The purchases form part of a previously ap...

Toagosei Advances Share Buyback Program With May Treasury Purchases

Jun 1, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd., a Japanese chemical maker listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, produces industrial chemicals and materials for a wide range of manufacturing clients, and actively manages its capital structure through share repurchases. The company...

Toagosei Completes Treasury Share Disposal for Restricted Stock Compensation

May 20, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. has completed the payment procedures for the disposal of 76,020 treasury shares as restricted stock compensation to its directors and other key personnel. This transaction, approved by the Board of Directors in April, was executed...

Toagosei Outlines First-Quarter FY2026 Financial Performance

May 13, 2026

Toagosei Co. released its financial results outline for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, covering an overview of performance, changes in operating income, and consolidated results by segment. The materials indicate that management is providing a det...

Toagosei posts solid Q1 profit jump, ups 2026 dividend outlook

May 13, 2026

Toagosei reported consolidated net sales of ¥38.6 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2026, down 3.0% year on year, with operating income slipping 4.7% to ¥3.2 billion, while ordinary profit was flat and net income attributable to...

Toagosei Pauses April Buybacks but Continues 2026 Share Repurchase Program

May 7, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. reported that it did not acquire any of its own shares in April 2026, despite having board authorization to conduct a buyback program. The authorized program allows for the repurchase of up to 2 million shares, or 1.86% of outstand...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 04, 2026