Toagosei Co (4045) AI Stock Analysis

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Toagosei Co

(TSE/TYO:4045)

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Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:JPY 1,972.00▲(9.53% Upside)

Action:downgraded

Date:11/05/26

Toagosei Co achieves a moderate-to-high overall score driven largely by its attractive valuation and pristine balance sheet. The stock's P/E of 14.17 and strong 3.80% dividend yield present solid value and income generation. Financial stability is excellent, underscored by extremely low leverage, although this is partially offset by a recent contraction in revenue and negative free cash flow from reinvestment. Technically, the stock faces mild short-term headwinds, currently trading below its near-term moving averages with neutral momentum indicators.

Positive Factors

Solid ProfitabilityHealthy gross and net margins indicate that Toagosei retains meaningful earnings power across its specialty chemicals portfolio. This profitability provides resources for reinvestment and resilience, even as recent operating margins have moderated from prior peak levels.

Negative Factors

Negative Free Cash FlowNegative free cash flow for two recent years weakens cash conversion and limits internally generated surplus available for dividends, investment, or debt reduction. Continued reliance on operating cash and the balance sheet could reduce flexibility if spending remains elevated.

Toagosei Co (4045) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 1.16B
Dividend Yield: 3.80%
Average Volume (3M): 230.65K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.0
Beta (1Y): 0.64
Revenue Growth: 2.33%
EPS Growth: 50.31%
Country: Japan
Employees: 2,680
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Chemicals - Specialty

Toagosei Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Toagosei Co., Ltd. Manufactures and sells chemical products. The company operates through Core Chemicals Business, Polymer/Oligomer Business, Adhesive Materials Business, High-performance Materials Business, Resin Processed Products Business, and Oth...

Toagosei Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The company maintains a fortress-like balance sheet with an exceptionally low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.10 and improving profit margins. However, top-line headwinds reflecting a 2.4% revenue contraction and negative free cash flow due to capital requirements constrain the score.

Income Statement

62Positive

Balance Sheet

88Very Positive

Cash Flow

52Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	167.91B	162.31B	167.59B	159.37B	160.82B	156.31B
Gross Profit	50.32B	47.13B	45.71B	41.37B	42.93B	45.34B
EBITDA	31.74B	29.24B	28.01B	27.88B	27.87B	29.52B
Net Income	13.69B	12.77B	11.88B	12.18B	12.49B	13.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	297.23B	289.11B	278.02B	272.29B	265.13B	258.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.88B	31.52B	41.82B	56.11B	58.37B	75.46B
Total Debt	25.57B	21.81B	12.30B	12.35B	12.38B	11.49B
Total Liabilities	76.73B	73.16B	64.35B	59.76B	54.33B	52.34B
Stockholders Equity	219.32B	214.81B	212.59B	211.51B	205.97B	201.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	-5.68B	-1.86B	9.98B	-9.31B	9.70B
Operating Cash Flow	0	22.29B	20.18B	21.64B	10.99B	21.22B
Investing Cash Flow	0	-29.64B	-13.59B	-3.53B	-3.58B	-10.24B
Financing Cash Flow	0	-4.50B	-14.51B	-15.52B	-9.46B	-8.64B

Toagosei Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price1800.50

Price Trends

50DMA1820.04Negative

100DMA1804.32Negative

200DMA1767.35Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-10.64Positive

RSI47.88Neutral

STOCH44.59Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4045, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1800.50 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1813.80, below the 50-day MA of 1820.04, and above the 200-day MA of 1767.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -10.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4045.

Toagosei Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:4045 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:4041	84Outperform	JPY 191.84B	10.38	―	4.82%	-0.17%	21.28%
JP:4045	69Neutral	JPY 190.46B	14.03	6.32%	3.80%	2.33%	50.31%
JP:4114	67Neutral	JPY 357.85B	17.19	―	5.44%	7.65%	33.78%
JP:4042	64Neutral	JPY 794.57B	12.89	7.33%	3.95%	6.33%	55.00%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
JP:3405	54Neutral	JPY 585.86B	-2397.47	3.38%	2.80%	6.57%	235.30%
JP:4061	54Neutral	JPY 256.33B	13.74	6.08%	3.35%	-0.41%	―

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:4045 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:4045	Toagosei Co	1800.50	303.54	20.28%
JP:4061	Denka Co	2985.50	598.40	25.07%
JP:3405	Kuraray Co	1894.00	387.92	25.76%
JP:4042	Tosoh Corporation	2529.00	346.57	15.88%
JP:4041	Nippon Soda Co., Ltd.	3525.00	230.40	6.99%
JP:4114	Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd.	2446.00	718.10	41.56%

Toagosei Co Corporate Events

Toagosei Posts Strong Nine-Month Results and Plans Higher Dividend for 2026

Oct 30, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. is a Japanese chemical producer listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that supplies industrial and specialty chemical products, supporting a wide range of manufacturing applications. The company positions itself as a stable player in...

Toagosei lifts interim dividend as first-half profits rise and revises 2026 outlook

Aug 26, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. reported consolidated net sales of ¥82,405 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up 2.6% year on year, with operating income rising 12.7% to ¥7,912 million and net income attributable to owners of parent increasing 5.3% t...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026

Toagosei Co AI Stock Analysis