Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. (4041) AI Stock Analysis

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Nippon Soda Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:4041)

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Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:JPY 3,853.00▲(9.15% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/17/26

The score is driven primarily by solid profitability and a manageable leverage profile, supported by strong technical uptrend signals. Valuation also contributes positively due to a modest P/E and high dividend yield. The main constraint is cash-flow volatility (including a negative free-cash-flow year) and uneven revenue momentum.

Positive Factors

Resilient ProfitabilitySustained gross, operating, and net profitability indicates that Nippon Soda has retained meaningful earnings power across several years. This resilience can support reinvestment, dividends, and competitive positioning even when revenue growth is uneven over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Uneven Revenue TrendRepeated changes in revenue direction point to inconsistent top-line momentum despite solid margins. A less dependable revenue base can limit operating leverage, make planning more difficult, and reduce confidence that current earnings strength will translate into sustained multi-quarter growth.

Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. (4041) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 188.15B
Dividend Yield: 4.82%
Average Volume (3M): 123.09K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.4
Beta (1Y): 0.61
Revenue Growth: -1.25%
EPS Growth: 34.70%
Country: Japan
Employees: 2,407
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Chemicals

Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Operating both domestically in Japan and across global markets, Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. is involved in the entire lifecycle of various products, from development and manufacturing to distribution and export, focusing primarily on chemicals and agrochem...

Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid profitability (gross margin in the high-20% range; operating profitability low-to-mid teens; net margin ~8%–11% in 2022–2025) and a generally healthy balance sheet with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.19–0.27). The score is tempered by uneven revenue trends (down in 2024, slight rebound in 2025, slip in 2026 annual) and notably volatile cash flow, including a negative free-cash-flow year (2024) and only modest profit-to-FCF conversion even in positive years.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

76Positive

Cash Flow

58Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	153.70B	152.09B	155.20B	154.43B	172.81B	152.54B
Gross Profit	45.97B	45.00B	44.94B	42.70B	49.28B	42.11B
EBITDA	32.58B	33.58B	28.55B	29.49B	33.62B	26.34B
Net Income	18.34B	18.27B	15.01B	16.61B	16.69B	12.68B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	320.23B	307.31B	288.10B	290.49B	251.35B	245.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.77B	24.63B	22.24B	22.21B	18.51B	17.95B
Total Debt	55.85B	52.27B	50.30B	48.99B	32.38B	39.91B
Total Liabilities	107.65B	101.21B	99.99B	101.02B	80.39B	87.28B
Stockholders Equity	211.28B	204.78B	186.78B	188.05B	169.26B	155.94B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	8.43B	3.58B	-5.20B	3.21B	2.91B
Operating Cash Flow	0	21.59B	22.64B	5.73B	15.59B	14.54B
Investing Cash Flow	0	-10.80B	-17.56B	-9.59B	-4.86B	-11.62B
Financing Cash Flow	0	-11.27B	-5.39B	6.69B	-10.44B	-4.80B

Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price3530.00

Price Trends

50DMA3702.98Negative

100DMA3686.25Negative

200DMA3637.96Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-52.20Positive

RSI41.82Neutral

STOCH44.20Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4041, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3530.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3588.25, below the 50-day MA of 3702.98, and below the 200-day MA of 3637.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -52.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4041.

Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:4041 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:4272	79Outperform	JPY 273.33B	9.56	10.42%	3.71%	15.52%	33.82%
JP:4041	74Outperform	JPY 191.84B	10.41	―	4.82%	-1.25%	34.70%
JP:4021	73Outperform	JPY 918.30B	18.01	20.97%	2.99%	12.08%	18.51%
JP:4114	67Neutral	JPY 359.27B	17.15	―	5.54%	7.65%	33.78%
JP:4042	64Neutral	JPY 778.66B	12.90	7.33%	4.00%	6.33%	55.00%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
JP:4061	54Neutral	JPY 254.48B	13.93	6.08%	3.36%	-0.41%	―

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:4041 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:4041	Nippon Soda Co., Ltd.	3530.00	87.38	2.54%
JP:4061	Denka Co	2974.50	628.67	26.80%
JP:4021	Nissan Chemical Corporation	7015.00	2046.01	41.18%
JP:4272	Nippon Kayaku Co	1857.50	424.45	29.62%
JP:4042	Tosoh Corporation	2497.00	298.24	13.56%
JP:4114	Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd.	2400.50	681.60	39.65%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026

Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. AI Stock Analysis