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Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corp. (3463) AI Stock Analysis

JP:3463

Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corp.

(TSE/TYO:3463)

Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:JPY 122,380.00â–²(19.16% Upside)
Action:downgraded
Date:03/20/26

The stock scores 61, reflecting mixed signals. Attractive valuation and solid financial fundamentals are offset by a weak technical picture and recent revenue decline. The high dividend yield and low P/E provide support, but investors should monitor the hotel sector's cyclicality and the REIT's leverage.

Positive Factors
High Profitability MarginsConsistently high gross (~70%) and net (~45%) margins provide a durable earnings buffer for a hotel-focused REIT. Elevated margins help absorb occupancy or rate volatility, supporting distributable income and internal capital allocation over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Sharp 2026 Revenue DeclineA 26.8% revenue drop in 2026 reflects meaningful pressure on the rent/revenue base—likely from occupancy, operator performance, or disposals. Sustained top-line weakness directly reduces distributable income and stresses payout sustainability and portfolio cashflows over months.

Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corp. (3463) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:3463-17.05%EWJ+15.87%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 33.63B
Dividend Yield
7.69%
Average Volume (3M)
1,003
Price to Earnings (P/E)
13.0
Beta (1Y)
0.38
Revenue Growth
-26.94%
EPS Growth
-44.90%
Country
Japan
Employees
―
Sector
Real Estate
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Asset Management

Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corporation, known as Ichigo Hotel REIT, commenced trading on the J-REIT section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange on November 30, 2015. Its distinctive name, "Ichigo," draws inspiration from the venerable Japanese proverb "Ich...

How the Company Makes Money

Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corp. makes money primarily by earning real estate income from the hotel properties it owns. Its key revenue stream is rental and lease-related income paid by hotel operators/tenants under lease agreements (often structur...

Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ichigo Hotel REIT combines strong operating cash flow and healthy margins with manageable debt. However, recent revenue decline and negative free cash flow highlight cyclical risks and aggressive capital spending.

Income Statement

62Positive

Balance Sheet

68Positive

Cash Flow

60Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJul 2025Jul 2024Jul 2023Jul 2023Jul 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.64B6.07B7.67B3.33B4.72B2.37B
Gross Profit2.11B4.22B7.67B2.18B3.29B1.27B
EBITDA4.36B4.41B10.84B2.26B3.22B1.64B
Net Income2.59B2.73B4.31B1.29B1.97B704.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets80.81B81.29B78.37B59.04B74.94B59.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.92B7.11B6.05B1.65B1.55B4.58B
Total Debt38.02B38.02B32.47B25.47B32.47B26.34B
Total Liabilities39.88B40.24B35.36B26.72B34.24B27.40B
Stockholders Equity40.93B41.05B43.01B32.32B40.69B31.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-315.93M-2.63B10.10B-840.15M-13.09B411.75M
Operating Cash Flow5.45B10.67B10.10B2.21B2.42B1.54B
Investing Cash Flow-5.80B-13.29B-3.20B-3.03B-15.30B-1.16B
Financing Cash Flow-732.16M862.05M-1.97B-931.68M13.38B-611.61M

Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corp. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price102700.00

Price Trends

50DMA107236.00Negative
100DMA110084.76Negative
200DMA111961.55Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-998.76Negative
RSI42.52Neutral
STOCH40.31Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3463, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 102700.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 102680.00, below the 50-day MA of 107236.00, and below the 200-day MA of 111961.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -998.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3463.

Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corp. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

JP:3463 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:3287JP:328769NeutralJPY 127.83B16.92―6.43%44.46%34.92%
JP:8985JP:898568NeutralJPY 500.38B17.108.24%6.01%14.90%5.75%
Sector *65Neutral$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
JP:3463JP:346361NeutralJPY 33.63B13.01―7.69%-26.94%-44.90%
JP:3479JP:347959NeutralJPY 82.19B5.67――50.70%364.91%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%JP:3463JP:8985JP:3287JP:3290JP:3472JP:3479Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:3463 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:3463Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corp.102700.00-21019.63-16.99%
JP:8985Japan Hotel Reit Investment Corporation84200.00-1134.66-1.33%
JP:3287Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc.218200.00-24547.05-10.11%
JP:3290One REIT. Inc.73500.00-10787.95-12.80%
JP:3472Nippon Hotel & Residential Investment Corporation65600.00-11089.61-14.46%
JP:3479TKP Corp1947.00221.0012.80%

Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corp. Corporate Events

Ichigo Hotel REIT Completes Sale of Tokyo Livemax Property

Jul 30, 2026

Ichigo Hotel REIT has completed the previously announced sale of the Hotel Livemax Nihombashi-Hakozaki in Tokyo, transferring its trust beneficiary interest in the property. The deal, contracted on May 15, 2026, closed on July 30, 2026 at a sale pric...

Ichigo Hotel REIT Posts Softer June 2026 Hotel Earnings on Weaker Demand

Jul 27, 2026

Ichigo Hotel REIT reported weaker operating metrics for June 2026 across most of its hotel portfolio, with revenue, RevPAR, occupancy and ADR all declining year on year for the 24 hotels in operation. Variable-rent properties saw the sharpest drops,...

Ichigo Hotel REIT Sees Revenue and RevPAR Declines as Variable Rent Hotels Weigh on Results

Jun 25, 2026

Ichigo Hotel REIT reported weaker operating metrics for May 2026, as portfolio revenue for 24 operating hotels declined 3.3% year-on-year, with RevPAR down 3.6% and occupancy slipping to 84.3%, while ADR eased 0.8%. Variable rent hotels were the main...

Ichigo Hotel REIT Sees April Revenue Drop on Weaker Occupancy and Renovations

May 25, 2026

Ichigo Hotel REIT reported weaker operating metrics for April 2026, with portfolio revenue for 24 operating hotels falling 7.8% year-on-year and RevPAR down 8.3%, driven by lower occupancy and average daily rates. Variable rent hotels were the main d...

Ichigo Hotel REIT Sells Tokyo Property to Fund Higher-Growth Investments

May 15, 2026

Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corporation has agreed to sell the lodging-focused Hotel Livemax Nihombashi-Hakozaki in Tokyo, a 2015-built property it acquired in 2016, for JPY 1.58 billion to an undisclosed Japanese buyer. The sale price represents ro...

Ichigo Hotel REIT Lifts July 2026 Earnings Outlook on Asset Sale Gain

May 15, 2026

Ichigo Hotel REIT has raised its earnings forecast for the July 2026 fiscal period, projecting higher operating revenue, profit, and net income than previously announced. The REIT now expects net income of JPY 1,167 million and a dividend of JPY 3,56...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 04, 2026