TOCALO Co., Ltd. (3433) AI Stock Analysis

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TOCALO Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:3433)

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Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:JPY 2,524.00▼(-3.00% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/01/26

The score is primarily supported by strong financial performance—especially high, improving profitability and a conservatively financed balance sheet—partly offset by weaker cash-flow quality (negative free cash flow in 2026). Technicals are a notable drag as the stock is below key moving averages with negative MACD, while valuation is supportive due to a reasonable P/E and a ~3.5% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue ExpansionThe substantial five-year revenue increase indicates that TOCALO’s surface-engineering services have expanded in customer or application reach. Although growth has not been perfectly smooth, the strong rebound after 2024 shows the business can regain momentum and build a larger recurring revenue base.

Negative Factors

Uneven Revenue GrowthThe 2024 revenue contraction shows that TOCALO’s expansion is not entirely steady and may be influenced by industrial demand cycles. Even with the subsequent rebound, uneven growth can complicate capacity planning, reduce earnings visibility, and create periods of underutilized resources.

TOCALO Co., Ltd. (3433) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 154.74B
Dividend Yield: 3.65%
Average Volume (3M): 243.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.9
Beta (1Y): 1.35
Revenue Growth: 14.27%
EPS Growth: 24.84%
Country: Japan
Employees: 1,573
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Industrial - Specialties

TOCALO Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TOCALO Co.,Ltd., a Japanese company with its headquarters in Kobe, specializes in pioneering surface modification technologies for both domestic and international markets. The firm produces a variety of high-performance functional coatings, employing...

How the Company Makes Money

TOCALO primarily makes money by selling surface processing services (and associated technical solutions) to corporate customers that need to protect or refurbish components used in harsh operating conditions. Revenue is generated mainly through: (1)...

TOCALO Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and revenue expansion over five years with healthy EBIT (~21%–24%) and improving net margins (~17% in 2026), supported by a very low and improving leverage profile (debt-to-equity ~0.03 in 2026). The main offset is cash-flow quality: free cash flow turned negative in 2026 (¥-2.0B) and cash conversion has been volatile versus earnings.

Income Statement

86Very Positive

Balance Sheet

92Very Positive

Cash Flow

63Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	64.77B	58.49B	54.23B	46.73B	48.14B	43.81B
Gross Profit	24.35B	22.10B	20.29B	16.27B	17.38B	16.59B
EBITDA	19.23B	14.79B	15.51B	12.71B	13.98B	13.24B
Net Income	11.14B	10.06B	8.05B	6.33B	7.35B	6.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	98.20B	89.29B	82.78B	77.94B	74.90B	70.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.47B	14.73B	17.98B	20.91B	20.91B	20.11B
Total Debt	11.25B	7.57B	3.88B	5.10B	2.94B	4.29B
Total Liabilities	22.09B	16.63B	17.05B	18.01B	17.25B	17.61B
Stockholders Equity	70.07B	66.76B	60.65B	55.46B	53.84B	49.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-526.50M	-2.01B	3.55B	3.09B	5.28B	5.31B
Operating Cash Flow	1.36B	7.75B	9.08B	7.88B	9.89B	9.87B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.83B	-9.96B	-6.19B	-4.63B	-5.09B	-5.04B
Financing Cash Flow	276.00M	-1.16B	-5.12B	-3.24B	-4.56B	-4.55B

TOCALO Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price2602.00

Price Trends

50DMA2777.88Negative

100DMA2878.04Negative

200DMA2852.84Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-88.80Negative

RSI44.93Neutral

STOCH82.50Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3433, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2602.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2649.90, below the 50-day MA of 2777.88, and below the 200-day MA of 2852.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -88.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.50 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3433.

TOCALO Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

JP:3433 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:5195	76Outperform	JPY 103.15B	9.13	―	5.47%	7.15%	267.28%
JP:5192	74Outperform	JPY 119.18B	12.09	―	4.48%	7.58%	46.70%
JP:6490	69Neutral	JPY 219.42B	16.10	―	2.14%	26.93%	56.60%
JP:3433	68Neutral	JPY 153.52B	13.89	―	3.65%	14.27%	24.84%
JP:6498	64Neutral	JPY 158.08B	12.33	10.55%	3.36%	14.51%	10.65%
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
JP:7995	61Neutral	JPY 109.81B	13.43	―	2.59%	15.41%	54.89%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:3433 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:3433	TOCALO Co., Ltd.	2602.00	569.15	28.00%
JP:6498	Kitz Corporation	1817.00	185.48	11.37%
JP:5192	Mitsuboshi Belting Ltd.	4305.00	749.66	21.09%
JP:5195	Bando Chemical Industries Ltd.	2377.00	523.72	28.26%
JP:6490	Nippon Pillar Packing Co., Ltd.	9170.00	4654.70	103.09%
JP:7995	Valqua Ltd.	6180.00	2427.73	64.70%

TOCALO Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

TOCALO Reports Strong First-Half Earnings Growth

Nov 5, 2026

TOCALO reported consolidated net sales of ¥34.586 billion for the six months ended September 30, 2026, up 22.2% year over year. Operating profit rose 25.9% to ¥8.206 billion, ordinary profit increased 23.8% to ¥8.364 billion, and profit attributable...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 01, 2026

TOCALO Co., Ltd. AI Stock Analysis