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TOCALO Co., Ltd. (3433) AI Stock Analysis

JP:3433

TOCALO Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:3433)

Select Model
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:JPY 3,604.00â–²(36.15% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/01/26

TOCALO scores 77, reflecting its strong financial foundation with high profitability and a rock-solid balance sheet. Recent price weakness has created a mixed technical picture, but the long-term trend remains positive. Valuation is fair, supported by a healthy dividend yield. The company's increased capital expenditures may drive future growth, though the resulting negative free cash flow should be monitored.

Positive Factors
Strong ProfitabilitySustained high EBIT margins and an improving net margin indicate that TOCALO converts revenue into profit efficiently. This profitability provides internal funding for engineering, capacity, and customer service investments while creating resilience if industrial demand softens over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash FlowThe shift to negative free cash flow weakens near-term cash generation even though reported profitability remains strong. If this pattern persists, TOCALO may have less internally generated cash available for investment, shareholder distributions, or protection against changes in working capital and spending needs.

TOCALO Co., Ltd. (3433) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%JP:3433+18.03%EWJ+15.87%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 157.41B
Dividend Yield
3.48%
Average Volume (3M)
245.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
15.6
Beta (1Y)
1.25
Revenue Growth
6.16%
EPS Growth
15.40%
Country
Japan
Employees
1,573
Sector
Industrials
Sector Strength
63
Industry
Industrial - Specialties

TOCALO Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TOCALO Co.,Ltd., a Japanese company with its headquarters in Kobe, specializes in pioneering surface modification technologies for both domestic and international markets. The firm produces a variety of high-performance functional coatings, employing...

How the Company Makes Money

TOCALO primarily makes money by selling surface processing services (and associated technical solutions) to corporate customers that need to protect or refurbish components used in harsh operating conditions. Revenue is generated mainly through: (1)...

TOCALO Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and profitability, with net income up 25% and ROE 15.1%. Balance sheet is exceptionally strong with minimal debt (debt/equity 3.5%). Cash flow declined due to expansion capex, but historically solid. Overall financial health is excellent.

Income Statement

85Very Positive

Balance Sheet

95Very Positive

Cash Flow

70Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue60.00B58.49B54.23B46.73B48.14B43.81B
Gross Profit22.25B22.10B20.29B16.27B17.38B16.59B
EBITDA17.43B14.79B15.51B12.71B13.98B13.24B
Net Income10.10B10.06B8.05B6.33B7.35B6.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets95.61B89.29B82.78B77.94B74.90B70.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments15.51B14.73B17.98B20.91B20.91B20.11B
Total Debt12.05B7.57B3.88B5.10B2.94B4.29B
Total Liabilities22.91B16.63B17.05B18.01B17.25B17.61B
Stockholders Equity66.79B66.76B60.65B55.46B53.84B49.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0-2.01B3.55B3.09B5.28B5.31B
Operating Cash Flow07.75B9.08B7.88B9.89B9.87B
Investing Cash Flow0-9.96B-6.19B-4.63B-5.09B-5.04B
Financing Cash Flow0-1.16B-5.12B-3.24B-4.56B-4.55B

TOCALO Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price2647.00

Price Trends

50DMA2819.53Negative
100DMA2924.47Negative
200DMA2842.66Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-57.31Positive
RSI37.10Neutral
STOCH40.21Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3433, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2647.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2903.20, below the 50-day MA of 2819.53, and below the 200-day MA of 2842.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -57.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3433.

TOCALO Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

JP:3433 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:5195JP:519577OutperformJPY 103.79B9.47―5.27%6.10%397.23%
JP:3433JP:343377OutperformJPY 155.69B15.59―3.48%6.16%15.40%
JP:5192JP:519274OutperformJPY 115.73B14.73―4.61%5.29%20.13%
JP:6490JP:649070OutperformJPY 232.89B21.23―1.99%10.09%30.15%
Sector *63Neutral$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
JP:7995JP:799561NeutralJPY 109.81B15.31―2.58%5.04%53.89%
JP:6498JP:649853NeutralJPY 162.77B13.5410.16%3.25%7.97%-1.68%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%50%100%150%JP:3433JP:6498JP:5192JP:5195JP:6490JP:7995Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:3433 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:3433TOCALO Co., Ltd.2647.00457.5620.90%
JP:6498Kitz Corporation1875.00194.9611.60%
JP:5192Mitsuboshi Belting Ltd.4190.00644.2018.17%
JP:5195Bando Chemical Industries Ltd.2468.00640.1935.02%
JP:6490Nippon Pillar Packing Co., Ltd.9850.005064.47105.83%
JP:7995Valqua Ltd.6210.002433.4364.44%

TOCALO Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

TOCALO Completes Restricted Stock Treasury Share Disposition for Directors

Aug 7, 2026

TOCALO Co., Ltd. has completed the payment procedures for a previously approved disposition of treasury stock under its restricted stock award program. The transaction involves issuing 9,311 ordinary shares at 3,055 yen per share, for a total of 28,4...

Tocalo Lifts Earnings and Dividend Forecasts on Robust Semiconductor Demand

Aug 5, 2026

Tocalo Co., Ltd. has raised its consolidated earnings forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, citing stronger-than-expected demand, particularly in semiconductor-related businesses. The company now expects higher net sales, operating pro...

TOCALO Raises Full-Year Outlook as Q1 Sales Climb and Dividends Set to Increase

Aug 5, 2026

TOCALO Co., Ltd. reported consolidated net sales of ¥16.66 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, up 9.9% year on year, while operating and ordinary profit slipped marginally and profit attributable to owners of parent rose 1.4% to &#...

Tocalo to Grant Restricted Treasury Shares to Directors Under Long-Term Incentive Plan

Jul 17, 2026

Tocalo Co., Ltd. has approved the disposition of 9,311 treasury shares as restricted stock awards to five internal directors, at a price of 3,055 yen per share, totaling 28,445,105 yen. The move is part of a compensation program first adopted in 2021...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2026