First Baking Co., Ltd. (2215) AI Stock Analysis

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First Baking Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:2215)

Select Model

Rating:62Neutral

Price Target:JPY 658.00▲(5.79% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/06/26

The overall score of 62 reflects a company with a fortress-like balance sheet but significant operational challenges. The primary strength is the debt-free position and high equity, providing substantial financial flexibility. This is counterbalanced by the primary risk: a sharp deterioration in cash flow, which turned deeply negative and raises sustainability concerns. Moderately bullish technicals and a low P/E ratio provide some support, but the lack of dividends and volatile profitability prevent a higher score.

Positive Factors

Steady revenue growthThe multi-year increase in revenue indicates resilient demand for the company’s baked goods and supports a durable operating base. Continued top-line expansion can provide scope to spread fixed costs, strengthen distribution relationships, and fund product or capacity investments over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generationThe sharp deterioration in operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow indicate that reported earnings are not currently converting reliably into cash. If this persists, First Baking may have less internally generated funding for investment and could face greater pressure from working-capital needs or other cash uses.

First Baking Co., Ltd. (2215) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 4.33B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 9,200
Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.4
Beta (1Y): 0.52
Revenue Growth: 8.30%
EPS Growth: 76.63%
Country: Japan
Employees: 876
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Packaged Foods

First Baking Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Baking Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of bread, Japanese sweets, cookies, and confectionery items. It operates through the following divisions: Bread, Japanese and Western Confectioneries, and Others. The Bread division manufactu...

How the Company Makes Money

First Baking Co., Ltd. primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling baked goods and related food products, recognizing revenue from product sales to customers through its distribution and sales channels. Key revenue streams are expected to be s...

First Baking Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is mixed. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong (Score 92) with zero debt and high equity, but this is offset by weak cash flow (Score 25) which turned deeply negative. The income statement (Score 55) shows consistent revenue growth but volatile, thin profitability. Overall, the strong capital structure is undermined by poor cash generation.

Income Statement

55Neutral

Balance Sheet

92Very Positive

Cash Flow

25Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	29.92B	28.96B	27.18B	26.44B	24.55B	23.86B
Gross Profit	7.79B	7.43B	7.46B	7.04B	5.86B	6.26B
EBITDA	1.27B	1.01B	2.37B	1.06B	-503.00M	-70.00M
Net Income	461.00M	320.00M	2.06B	474.00M	-1.15B	-738.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.61B	16.34B	15.78B	17.73B	17.08B	18.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.06B	3.00B	3.96B	3.06B	2.17B	1.45B
Total Debt	0	0	32.00M	3.89B	3.58B	4.44B
Total Liabilities	6.84B	7.78B	7.72B	11.52B	11.23B	10.52B
Stockholders Equity	8.76B	8.55B	8.05B	6.21B	5.84B	7.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	-1.37B	114.00M	178.00M	142.00M	-530.00M
Operating Cash Flow	0	49.00M	952.00M	494.00M	473.00M	-10.00M
Investing Cash Flow	0	-1.91B	3.90B	-304.00M	788.00M	-646.00M
Financing Cash Flow	0	415.00M	-3.84B	698.00M	-543.00M	88.00M

First Baking Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price622.00

Price Trends

50DMA617.62Positive

100DMA611.17Positive

200DMA609.40Positive

Market Momentum

MACD1.06Negative

RSI58.15Neutral

STOCH92.06Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2215, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 622.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 619.60, above the 50-day MA of 617.62, and above the 200-day MA of 609.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2215.

First Baking Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:2215 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:2212	72Outperform	JPY 810.53B	18.86	9.18%	1.46%	4.78%	11.17%
JP:2215	62Neutral	JPY 4.31B	9.36	―	―	8.30%	76.63%
JP:2204	60Neutral	JPY 18.12B	22.40	―	2.44%	1.15%	31.95%
JP:2224	57Neutral	JPY 13.38B	64.20	―	0.18%	2.98%	―
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
JP:2936	54Neutral	JPY 12.76B	230.77	―	―	3.21%	-90.33%
JP:3392	49Neutral	JPY 11.63B	9.11	―	3.50%	2.68%	-20.40%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:2215 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:2215	First Baking Co., Ltd.	622.00	15.00	2.47%
JP:2212	Yamazaki Baking Co	4174.00	981.61	30.75%
JP:2204	Nakamuraya Co., Ltd.	3080.00	126.62	4.29%
JP:2224	Como Co., Ltd.	3885.00	606.10	18.48%
JP:2936	BASE FOOD Inc.	238.00	-104.00	-30.41%
JP:3392	DELICA FOODS HOLDINGS CO. LTD.	724.00	-79.72	-9.92%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026

First Baking Co., Ltd. AI Stock Analysis