Freeport-McMoRan (1FCX) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Freeport expects fourth quarter 2026 sales volumes to be the highest of the year, with copper sales increasing 17% and gold sales nearly tripling from third quarter levels; 2026 copper sales were trimmed by approximately 2% and 2027 by approximately 2.5%, while 2027 copper sales are expected to grow over 20% and gold volumes more than 50%, followed by 10% copper growth and 20% gold growth in 2028. Grasberg is targeted to reach 80% overall rates by mid-2027 and approach full capacity by the end of next year, with copper production positioned to grow from GBP 3 billion this year to GBP 3.7 billion in 2027 and over GBP 4 billion in 2028. Full-year 2026 net unit cash cost guidance remains $1.90 per pound; modeled annual EBITDA ranges from over $12 billion per annum at $5 copper to $19.5 billion at $7 copper, with operating cash flows ranging from over $9 billion per year at $5 to approximately $15 billion at $7 copper. Capital expenditure is estimated to approximate $4.4 billion in 2026 and $5.2 billion for 2027, including discretionary projects of approximately $1.6 billion and $2 billion, respectively. Leach production is targeted at GBP 300 million in 2027 versus just over GBP 200 million in 2026, with an aspiration to reach GBP 800-million by 2030, while the Bagdad expansion remains at a $4.5 billion estimate, is expected to come in around 3.5 years from the final decision, and could add GBP 200 million-GBP 250 million a year of copper and GBP 10 million-GBP 12 million a year of molybdenum.