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Archer Daniels Midland (1ADM) AI Stock Analysis

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IT:1ADM

Archer Daniels Midland

(Milan:1ADM)

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Positive Factors
Raised earnings outlookRaised guidance and favorable biofuels economics provide medium-term support for earnings across crushing and ethanol, while expected Nutrition growth broadens the recovery. Repeated guidance increases and a constructive 2027 outlook suggest management sees momentum extending beyond one quarter.
Negative Factors
Weak free-cash-flow conversionTTM free cash flow fell about 79% and covered only about 23% of net income, showing a material deterioration in earnings-to-cash conversion. Although operating cash flow exceeded net income, weaker discretionary cash can constrain reinvestment, debt reduction, and shareholder returns if sustained.

Archer Daniels Midland (1ADM) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%IT:1ADM+32.37%EWI+17.22%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
EUR 34.03B
Dividend Yield
2.87%
Average Volume (3M)
39
Price to Earnings (P/E)
13.8
Beta (1Y)
0.12
Revenue Growth
-4.04%
EPS Growth
93.95%
Country
Italy
Employees
41,147
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength
62
Industry
Agricultural Farm Products

Archer Daniels Midland Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and essen...

Archer Daniels Midland Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 02, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-7.16%|Next Earnings Date:Jan 25, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive. ADM reported substantial year-over-year earnings growth, raised full-year EPS guidance for the third time, generated approximately $3 billion of year-to-date operating cash flow before working capital changes, resumed share repurchases, and highlighted improving results in crushing, ethanol, Flavors, and Animal Nutrition. The company also described multiple organic-growth opportunities and a constructive 2027 outlook. These positives outweighed declines in Ag Services and Nutrition revenue, operational downtime, ongoing liquid-sweetener pressure, seasonal factors, and expected higher corporate and interest costs.

Positive Updates

Strong Third-Quarter Earnings Growth
ADM reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.77 and total segment operating profit of $1.4 billion for the third quarter of 2026. Total segment operating profit increased 64% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS was described as up 92%.

Negative Updates

Ag Services Profit Declined
Ag Services operating profit was $172 million, down 9% year-over-year. Higher U.S. corn and soybean exports only partially offset softer results in certain markets, including Ukraine.

Company Guidance

ADM raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.50 to $5.80, up from the previous range of $5.15 to $5.60, and expects 2026 capital expenditures in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, down from the prior range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. For 2026, it expects the constructive biofuels environment to drive strong year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter, strength in ethanol margins, including policy incentives to continue to more than offset softness primarily in liquid sweeteners, a net benefit from 45Z of approximately $350 million, up from approximately $250 million, and good year-over-year growth in Nutrition, while Corporate costs are expected to be higher than in 2025. ADM remains on track to achieve its targeted aggregate cost savings of $500 million to $750 million. For 2027, ADM expects biofuels demand and margins to remain favorable, another year of growth in nutrition, and conditions somewhere in the range of what '26 was plus/minus a little bit depending on the condition; capital expenditures should be something between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion in our future.

Archer Daniels Midland Risk Analysis

Archer Daniels Midland disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Archer Daniels Midland reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Macro & Political - Risks related to catastrophic events or geopolitical conditions that may disrupt the company’s business

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Archer Daniels Midland Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

IT:1ADM against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
Sector *62Neutral$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
ANDEANDE61Neutral$2.13B9.2414.15%1.45%-4.32%177.76%
DMCDMC51Neutral$1.28B16.694.04%4.18%1.27%3.98%
AGROAGRO49Neutral$1.37B28.393.03%2.63%7.20%-10.41%
BGBG49Neutral$18.20B16.227.22%2.93%55.48%-36.15%
TSNTSN48Neutral$19.64B35.953.18%3.40%2.86%-26.18%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-25%0%25%50%75%IT:1ADMAGROBGDMCANDETSNDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
IT:1ADM and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
IT:1ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company62.7414.6230.39%
AGROAdecoagro9.231.2415.53%
BGBunge Global Sa97.014.614.99%
DMCDel Monte Corporation28.70-6.58-18.66%
ANDEThe Andersons55.357.0114.50%
TSNTyson Foods60.0310.1020.22%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.