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Saga plc
(LSE:SAGA)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
901.00 p
▲(32.70% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/01/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operations and cash generation, but it is held back by significant balance-sheet leverage (high debt and very thin equity). Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, though overbought signals add near-term risk. Valuation is a key headwind given the very high P/E and no provided dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth
Saga has substantially expanded its revenue base, with annual sales nearly doubling from 2021 to 2026 and accelerating again in the latest period. This indicates improving demand across its travel and insurance activities and provides a broader platform for rebuilding sustainable earnings.
Negative Factors
High leverage and thin equity
Saga’s capital structure leaves limited financial flexibility because debt is high relative to a very small equity base. The substantial long-term decline in equity increases sensitivity to operating setbacks, refinancing requirements, and interest costs, constraining the group’s ability to fund growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth
Saga has substantially expanded its revenue base, with annual sales nearly doubling from 2021 to 2026 and accelerating again in the latest period. This indicates improving demand across its travel and insurance activities and provides a broader platform for rebuilding sustainable earnings.
Read all positive factors
Saga plc (SAGA) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.25B
Dividend Yield5.24%
Average Volume (3M)491.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E)53.4
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth36.66%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees2,936
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding146,290,480
10 Day Avg. Volume279,704
30 Day Avg. Volume491,581
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.50
Price to Book (P/B)10.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.12
P/FCF Ratio7.34
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£992.50Price Target Upside46.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)£700.44M
Saga plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Saga plc is a United Kingdom-based company that delivers a broad spectrum of services, encompassing general insurance, holiday packages, cruises, and various personal finance offerings. Operating through its Insurance, Travel, and Other Businesses...
How the Company Makes Money
Saga makes money mainly through two operating segments: Travel and Insurance. In Travel, revenue is generated from selling holidays to customers—most notably cruise holidays and other packaged travel products—where Saga earns the holiday price pai...
Saga plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 24, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 07, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Saga delivered a strong first half with significant revenue growth and debt reduction, particularly excelling in its travel and insurance broking segments. The strategic moves, including the sale of the underwriting business and upcoming partnerships, position Saga for future growth. However, challenges remain in the home insurance segment and the impact of higher finance costs. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Underlying revenue increased by 7% from the prior period, driven largely by growth in travel businesses and improved performance in insurance broking.
Negative Updates
Insurance Home Segment Decline
Home insurance contribution decreased by GBP 6.2 million due to net rate inflation within the panel, leading to 19% fewer policy sales.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Underlying revenue increased by 7% from the prior period, driven largely by growth in travel businesses and improved performance in insurance broking.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call provided comprehensive guidance on Saga's financial performance and strategic direction. Key metrics highlighted include a 7% increase in underlying revenue and an 8% growth in trading EBITDA, contributing to a reduction in net debt by GBP 77.7 million to GBP 515.1 million. The leverage ratio improved to 4.3x from 4.8x, reflecting strong cash generation. The Travel business was a significant profit driver, with a 33% increase in underlying PBT to GBP 41.6 million and ocean cruise PBT up 23%, alongside an 8% revenue growth and a 94% load factor. The River Cruise business saw a 34% increase in underlying PBT, with a load factor rising to 93%. The Holidays business reported a 14% revenue growth driven by a 13% increase in passenger numbers. Insurance Broking's underlying PBT stood at GBP 8.9 million, with policy volume growth across motor, travel, and private medical insurance. The sale of AICL added GBP 17 million in cash, aiding strategic simplification. The company is on track for its medium-term targets, including a GBP 100 million profit and leverage below 2x by 2030.Saga plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | Jan 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 699.30M | 660.00M | 588.30M | 564.60M | 581.10M | 377.20M |
| Gross Profit | 337.50M | 318.90M | 279.50M | 262.60M | 262.70M | 222.80M |
| EBITDA | 131.40M | 103.90M | 96.90M | 67.70M | -188.90M | 46.80M |
| Net Income | 22.70M | 13.80M | -164.90M | -113.00M | -259.20M | -28.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.32B | 1.28B | 1.59B | 1.88B | 1.98B | 2.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 314.50M | 258.00M | 141.60M | 262.80M | 239.30M | 336.90M |
| Total Debt | 621.40M | 651.40M | 689.90M | 824.40M | 895.50M | 934.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.19B | 1.21B | 1.53B | 1.66B | 1.61B | 1.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 123.50M | 69.70M | 57.70M | 223.50M | 369.50M | 652.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 141.70M | 100.90M | 93.10M | 57.00M | -34.70M | 27.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 149.60M | 117.00M | 113.20M | 83.70M | -13.90M | 46.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 14.90M | 6.10M | 14.80M | 18.00M | 4.10M | -27.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -61.20M | -69.50M | -144.50M | -73.80M | -54.20M | 69.60M |
Saga plc Technical Analysis
Positive
679.00
Price Trends
707.52
Positive
675.39
Positive
604.79
Positive
Market Momentum
45.83
Negative
71.39
Negative
84.57
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:SAGA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 679 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 801.10, below the 50-day MA of 707.52, and above the 200-day MA of 604.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 45.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.39 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:SAGA.
Saga plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | £1.67B | 7.18 | 21.73% | 16.14% | -1.60% | 36.00% | |
72 Outperform | £415.75M | 11.37 | 14.67% | 8.25% | -10.22% | -5.62% | |
71 Outperform | £1.29B | 7.82 | 11.98% | 6.31% | -6.82% | -7.03% | |
62 Neutral | £21.95B | 40.32 | 6.80% | 5.48% | 86.10% | -17.40% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | £791.56M | 146.15 | 0.25% | 6.71% | 192.47% | ― | |
56 Neutral | £1.25B | 53.42 | 23.50% | 5.24% | 36.66% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GB:SAGA
Saga plc
875.00
608.50
228.33%
GB:CSN
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342.00
86.17
33.68%
GB:LRE
Lancashire Holdings
686.50
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23.38%
GB:PAG
Paragon Banking Group PLC
719.00
-67.25
-8.55%
GB:AV
Aviva plc
733.80
105.51
16.79%
GB:SBRE
Sabre Insurance Group plc
172.20
49.42
40.26%
Saga plc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saga lifts profit guidance after stronger-than-expected first half
Positive
Sep 30, 2026
Saga plc reported a markedly stronger first-half performance for the six months to 31 July 2026, underpinned by robust demand across its cruise and holidays operations and growth in insurance and financial services. Underlying revenue rose 14% to ...
Executive/Board Changes
Saga Appoints Emma Woods to Key Board Committees
Neutral
Sep 28, 2026
Saga plc has announced a change in its board committee structure, appointing Emma Woods as a member of both the Remuneration Committee and the Audit and Risk Committee with immediate effect. The Nomination Committee remains unchanged, indicating a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Saga bolsters board with new consumer-sector non-executive directors
Positive
Sep 18, 2026
Saga plc has strengthened its board with the appointment of Emma Woods and Justin Platt as non-executive directors, adding deep experience from hospitality, leisure, retail and wider consumer sectors. Woods, a former Wagamama CEO with a strong mar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.