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BP plc (BP.B) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:BP.B

BP plc

(LSE:BP.B)

Select Model
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:GBX 166.00â–²(7.10% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/01/26

Improved financial performance and a predominantly positive earnings call are the main strengths. These are offset by leverage, cyclical exposure, weak-to-neutral technical momentum, and a relatively high P/E ratio despite the attractive dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Strong cash generationBP’s substantial operating and free cash flow provides internal funding for investment, debt reduction, and shareholder distributions. The year-on-year free-cash-flow improvement strengthens financial flexibility, although future conversion will still depend on operating conditions and working-capital movements.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverageAlthough leverage has improved from 2025, debt remains above equity and leaves BP with less balance-sheet cushion if profitability weakens. Higher obligations can constrain capital allocation, reduce resilience during weaker commodity conditions, and compete with investment or shareholder-return priorities.

BP plc (BP.B) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%GB:BP.B-0.32%EWC+21.04%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
GBP 101.85B
Dividend Yield
5.81%
Average Volume (3M)
4,464
Price to Earnings (P/E)
13.3
Beta (1Y)
0.16
Revenue Growth
―
EPS Growth
―
Country
UK
Employees
91,733
Sector
Energy
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Oil & Gas Integrated

BP plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BP Plc operates as an integrated oil and gas company providing carbon products and services. It operates through the following segments: Gas and Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production and Operations, and Customers and Products. The Gas and Low Carbon Ener...

How the Company Makes Money

BP makes money primarily by producing, transforming, trading, and selling energy products and related services. Upstream revenues are generated from the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from BP-operated fields and equi...

BP plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:0.65%|Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2018
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive, supported by strong third-quarter profit and cash flow growth, improved upstream and refining reliability, substantial reductions in net debt and financial obligations, progress on divestments and performance targets, and strong trading contributions. However, BP also highlighted an increase in process safety events, a $4 billion impairment charge, continuing operational variability, high remaining financial obligations, a large working capital build, and expectations for a significantly lower customers result in the fourth quarter. The positive financial and operational developments significantly outweighed the stated challenges.

Positive Updates

Strong Third-Quarter Profit and Cash Flow
BP delivered $8.5 billion of underlying profit, $2.7 billion higher than the second quarter, and $14.8 billion of operating cash flow, $4 billion higher than the second quarter. Group underlying profit increased 48% from the second quarter.

Negative Updates

Increase in Process Safety Events
BP reported an increase in tier one and tier two process safety events this year and said its performance needs to meet its high safety standards.

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, BP expects customers a significantly lower result, reflecting seasonally lower volumes, a lower midstream result, and Castrol earnings subject to the anticipated completion of the Castrol divestment; fuels margins and midstream performance are expected to remain sensitive to market conditions, and income taxes paid to be around $800 million higher. For full year 2026, divestment and other proceeds are expected to be around $8 billion, the underlying effective tax rate is expected to be between 31% and 34%, and the timing of payment of the recently announced $350 million settlement with the U.S. state of Louisiana is still to be determined. BP’s current estimate for the remainder of the year is a working capital release of around half a billion dollars, and financial obligations are expected to reduce to around $33 billion-$35 billion by the end of 2026. Refining availability has a target of keeping availability above 96%, and BP will set out its longer term capital framework and metrics and targets at the strategy and outlook update in December.

BP plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue, margins, net income, debt levels, return on equity, operating cash flow, and free cash flow improved. However, leverage remains meaningful and results remain cyclical.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

68Positive

Cash Flow

72Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue236.16B189.34B185.23B213.67B240.86B154.71B
Gross Profit51.15B33.53B28.11B47.39B54.05B21.65B
EBITDA46.01B31.07B24.91B42.92B29.05B27.75B
Net Income8.96B55.00M382.83M15.50B-2.48B7.42B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets301.79B278.53B282.23B280.29B288.12B287.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments42.78B36.71B34.52B28.59B29.77B30.96B
Total Debt69.17B72.53B71.55B63.08B55.49B69.79B
Total Liabilities222.71B204.53B203.91B194.80B205.13B196.83B
Stockholders Equity61.78B53.05B59.25B70.28B67.55B75.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow23.43B11.27B12.00B17.75B28.86B12.72B
Operating Cash Flow36.12B24.49B27.30B32.04B40.93B23.61B
Investing Cash Flow-10.40B-11.50B-13.25B-14.87B-13.71B-5.69B
Financing Cash Flow-17.61B-15.88B-7.30B-13.36B-28.02B-18.08B

BP plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price155.00

Price Trends

50DMA154.06Positive
100DMA155.81Negative
200DMA156.34Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.31Negative
RSI64.05Neutral
STOCH56.28Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BP.B, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 155.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 154.25, above the 50-day MA of 154.06, and below the 200-day MA of 156.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:BP.B.

BP plc Risk Analysis

BP plc disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BP plc reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

  • Finance & Corporate1
  • Tech & Innovation3
  • Legal & Regulatory2
  • Production8
  • Ability to Sell1
  • Macro & Political5
Production - Risks related to the company’s ability to manufacture goods and services

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

BP plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

GB:BP.B against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
GB:SHELGB:SHEL81OutperformGBP 207.54B8.4318.01%3.10%15.01%131.00%
GB:SEPLGB:SEPL74OutperformGBP 5.25B21.3617.66%1.71%25.07%48.96%
GB:HBRGB:HBR73OutperformGBP 4.75B20.869.66%4.36%17.03%―
GB:BP.BGB:BP.B66NeutralGBP 87.65B13.3215.61%5.81%――
Sector *65Neutral$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
GB:ITHGB:ITH62NeutralGBP 4.27B21.7010.32%10.31%28.04%―
GB:ENOGGB:ENOG51NeutralGBP 1.28B-7.91-114.52%8.60%8.94%-196.02%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%100%200%GB:BP.BGB:HBRGB:SHELGB:SEPLGB:ENOGGB:ITHDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
GB:BP.B and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
GB:BP.BBP plc (BP.B)155.00-0.50-0.32%
GB:HBRHarbour Energy plc273.2046.3020.40%
GB:SHELShell plc (UK)3719.50960.8734.83%
GB:SEPLSEPLAT Petroleum Development873.00622.92249.08%
GB:ENOGEnergean Oil & Gas694.50-235.21-25.30%
GB:ITHIthaca Energy PLC257.6044.8621.09%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 01, 2026