Ferrovial (FER) AI Stock Analysis

Ferrovial

(NASDAQ:FER)

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Positive Factors

Strong revenue growth and construction backlogRapid revenue growth and a record construction backlog indicate strong demand across Ferrovial’s core infrastructure businesses. The backlog provides multi-year project visibility, supports future revenue conversion, and creates a platform for continued scale in highways and construction.

Negative Factors

Meaningful leverage remainsAlthough leverage improved from earlier years, debt remains substantial relative to equity and operating cash flow. This reduces balance-sheet flexibility, makes sustained cash generation important, and could constrain Ferrovial’s ability to absorb weaker operations while funding new concessions.

Ferrovial (FER) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $30.42B
Dividend Yield: 2.99%
Average Volume (3M): 1.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E): 59.0
Beta (1Y): 0.70
Revenue Growth: 13.14%
EPS Growth: -80.61%
Country: US
Employees: 22,359
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Engineering & Construction

Ferrovial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ferrovial SE, a global leader in infrastructure and mobility, operates across the United States, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, Canada, and various other international markets through its subsidiaries. Its core business activities include the des...

Ferrovial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 26, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:2.35%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 27, 2019

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly positive. Ferrovial reported strong revenue, EBITDA, EBIT, construction profitability, backlog growth, cash generation and project distributions, while securing major new U.S. infrastructure awards and maintaining a strong net cash position. The main challenges were traffic declines at 407 ETR, I-77 and Dalaman, capacity constraints in parts of the managed-lanes portfolio, New Terminal One milestone extensions and dividend restrictions, ongoing I-24 litigation, and execution and financing uncertainty around future projects. The number and magnitude of the stated operational and financial strengths significantly outweighed the identified challenges.

Positive Updates

Strong First-Nine-Month Operating Performance

Ferrovial reported strong growth across its core businesses, particularly highways and construction, with double-digit like-for-like growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBIT.

Negative Updates

Traffic Decline at 407 ETR

407 ETR traffic declined 7.1% in the third quarter. Management attributed the decline to more targeted promotions in 2026, slower economic growth affecting heavy vehicles and discretionary trips, tariffs, unfavorable weather, holiday timing and lower maintenance activity on alternative roads.

Company Guidance

Ferrovial said I-285 East commercial close is expected in December 2026, financial close is expected by October 2027, groundbreaking is expected in first quarter 2028, and full service commencement is expected in 2034; Phase 2 financial close is expected in 2029 with opening expected in 2036, while Phase 3’s current expected milestones are financial close in 2032 and opening in 2040. The company is targeting a double-digit equity IRR, while project-level IRR is “close to double digit” and “super high single digit”; construction’s 3.5% target remains “a reasonable margin” as a long-term margin. Users typically take approximately two to three years to become familiar with a new road configuration, the I-285 OTR soft cap starts at $2.01 per mile in 2025 dollars, the hard cap is $4.02 per mile, and performance-based adjustments include a 3% congestion adjustment and a separate 18% target speed adjustment. Ferrovial said it does not provide a specific guidance for 407 ETR and ruled out lowering prices, while no dividends can be distributed from NTO until June 2033, with no fallback, and the new business plan is expected to be approved at the end of December and in place at beginning of next year.

Ferrovial Risk Analysis

Ferrovial disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ferrovial reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Ferrovial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

FER against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ES:AENA	80Outperform	EUR 40.62B	17.36	25.29%	4.03%	10.85%	13.00%
ES:SCYR	61Neutral	EUR 3.19B	24.28	13.38%	3.21%	3.64%	41.50%
ES:FCC	60Neutral	EUR 4.84B	22.73	6.14%	4.88%	9.68%	-10.60%
ES:ACS	56Neutral	EUR 24.12B	23.36	19.75%	2.56%	10.46%	14.97%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
ES:ANA	51Neutral	EUR 11.13B	30.75	7.63%	2.77%	7.62%	-56.65%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FER and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
FER	Ferrovial SA	55.29	-7.06	-11.32%
ES:ANA	Acciona SA	203.60	12.70	6.65%
ES:ACS	Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA	90.65	18.45	25.56%
ES:AENA	Aena S.A	27.08	4.21	18.39%
ES:FCC	Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas	10.24	-0.75	-6.82%
ES:SCYR	Sacyr SA	4.05	0.36	9.70%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Ferrovial AI Stock Analysis