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Banco Santander
(BME:SAN)
Select Model
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
€13.00
▲(2.28% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/22/26
Overall score reflects solid fundamentals and a constructive outlook from the latest earnings call (strong profit trajectory, capital position, and shareholder returns), balanced against balance-sheet leverage and cash-flow volatility that increase cyclicality and execution risk. Technical indicators are neutral-to-mixed and valuation is reasonable, providing support but not a major catalyst.
Positive Factors
Diversified retail franchise
A 182M customer base across Europe and the Americas provides durable scale for deposit funding, cross-sell and fee income. Large retail footprint and digital channels (Openbank/Getnet) lower single-market exposure and support steady recurring revenues over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High and rising leverage
Leverage rising materially increases sensitivity to credit cycles and funding shocks. Higher debt-to-equity constrains strategic flexibility, raises refinancing and TLAC/MREL execution risk during integrations (Webster/TSB), and can amplify earnings volatility under stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified retail franchise
A 182M customer base across Europe and the Americas provides durable scale for deposit funding, cross-sell and fee income. Large retail footprint and digital channels (Openbank/Getnet) lower single-market exposure and support steady recurring revenues over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Banco Santander (SAN) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)
Market Cap
€193.34B
Dividend Yield1.86%
Average Volume (3M)18.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7
Beta (1Y)1.60
Revenue Growth8.23%
EPS Growth24.66%
CountryES
Employees185,279
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.11
Shares Outstanding15,019,166,000
10 Day Avg. Volume15,035,666
30 Day Avg. Volume18,903,537
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)1.45
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio1.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€13.75Price Target Upside8.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)€63.65B
Banco Santander Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Founded in 1856 and headquartered in Madrid, Spain, Banco Santander, S.A. is a prominent global financial services provider. The institution caters to a broad spectrum of clients, from individual consumers and small and medium-sized businesses to ...
How the Company Makes Money
Santander primarily earns money by intermediating between savers and borrowers and by charging fees for banking and financial services. Its largest profit engine is net interest income: it pays interest on customer deposits and wholesale funding a...
Banco Santander Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong set of operating and financial results with record profit, healthy top-line growth, improved efficiency, solid capital generation and clear progress on strategic initiatives (TSB and Webster). These positives were tempered by region-specific challenges — mainly Argentina-driven higher provisions, a material motor finance hit in Openbank Europe (~EUR 245m), weaker trading income in CIB, transformation/integration costs (~EUR 250m already booked for TSB with additional charges expected) and some pressure in Brazil and UK competition. Overall, the favorable operational momentum, diversified revenue growth and capital/return metrics outweigh the identifiable one-offs and regional credit pressures, supporting a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Record Profit and Best Half Ever
Quarterly profit reached a record EUR 3.8 billion, making H1 2026 the best half ever. Underlying profit grew 14% year-on-year and management remains on track to exceed guidance of >EUR 14.1 billion profit for 2026 (ex M&A).
Negative Updates
Argentina-Related Credit Pressure
Loan loss provisions were materially affected by deterioration in Argentina; group cost of risk was ~115 bps (1.15% 12-month) in H1, slightly above the 100–110 bps target band. Management indicated Argentina is the main driver and expects some improvement in H2, but it remains a notable drag.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Profit and Best Half Ever
Quarterly profit reached a record EUR 3.8 billion, making H1 2026 the best half ever. Underlying profit grew 14% year-on-year and management remains on track to exceed guidance of >EUR 14.1 billion profit for 2026 (ex M&A).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Santander reiterated it is running ahead of plan and expects to deliver more than EUR 14.1bn of profit in 2026 (ex‑M&A) after a H1 with underlying profit +14% YoY, underlying EPS +20% and TNAV plus cash dividend per share +19%; group revenue guidance is ~+6% (H1 revenue +6%), NII +6% and fees +7% (fees to grow faster than NII). Capital guidance: CET1 was 14% (including TSB) and management expects to finish the year around its 12.8% target within a 12–13% operating range after absorbing Webster, having generated 27bps of net organic capital in the quarter while expecting c.15–20bps of supervisory headwinds in H2; buybacks total ~EUR9bn to date with ECB approval for an additional up to EUR1.8bn and a commitment to distribute ≥EUR10bn for 2025–26. Profitability targets: underlying RoTE 15.6% (close to 17% at normalized CET1) and a Financial North Star RoE >20% by 2028; Santander U.K. RoTE target ~16% by 2028 supported by ≥EUR400m synergies from TSB. Other guidance/parameters: group efficiency ratio 42.8% (Spain 33.6%), costs down 1% Y/Y (‑5% in real terms), cost of risk ~115bps for 2026 (1.0–1.1% medium term), ALCO ~EUR60bn at ~3.3% average yield and ~6yr duration with interest‑rate sensitivity ~EUR450m/100bps, and continued asset mobilization (EUR13.4bn in the quarter) to manage RWAs.Banco Santander Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 67.86B | 119.89B | 50.80B | 45.78B | 41.95B | 39.01B |
| Gross Profit | 49.07B | 48.02B | 51.20B | 46.97B | 43.36B | 39.01B |
| EBITDA | 22.76B | 19.35B | 22.22B | 19.64B | 18.23B | 16.87B |
| Net Income | 16.24B | 14.10B | 12.57B | 11.08B | 9.61B | 8.12B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.95T | 1.87T | 1.84T | 1.80T | 1.73T | 1.60T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 466.93B | 457.58B | 237.41B | 288.46B | 223.07B | 210.69B |
| Total Debt | 450.85B | 520.75B | 483.38B | 310.98B | 282.96B | 249.02B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.84T | 1.75T | 1.73T | 1.69T | 1.64T | 1.50T |
| Stockholders Equity | 109.35B | 103.17B | 98.60B | 95.42B | 89.10B | 86.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 56.17B | 77.68B | -32.65B | 66.92B | 16.87B | 45.29B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 61.67B | 83.53B | -24.16B | 80.56B | 27.71B | 56.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -91.00B | -97.83B | -3.71B | -80.91B | -3.90B | -3.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.90B | -14.20B | -5.51B | -2.06B | -9.96B | -1.32B |
Banco Santander Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | €141.29B | 13.13 | 19.31% | 3.63% | -8.98% | 6.81% | |
73 Outperform | €17.83B | 8.81 | 13.05% | 6.31% | -33.66% | -32.82% | |
72 Outperform | €786.01M | 14.66 | 29.31% | 3.62% | 13.97% | 49.25% | |
69 Neutral | €193.34B | 11.65 | 15.48% | 1.86% | 8.23% | 24.66% | |
69 Neutral | €9.28B | 14.03 | 9.44% | 7.92% | -6.69% | 5.62% | |
68 Neutral | €13.64B | 11.52 | 12.31% | 4.08% | 4.58% | 10.93% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ES:SAN
Banco Santander
12.93
4.78
58.54%
ES:SAB
Banco de Sabadell
3.70
0.83
29.05%
ES:BBVA
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
25.35
10.06
65.74%
ES:MAP
Mapfre, SA
4.44
0.76
20.74%
ES:UNI
Unicaja Banco SA
3.59
1.35
60.16%
ES:R4
Renta 4 Banco, S.A.
19.35
0.41
2.16%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.