Ferrovial (FER) AI Stock Analysis

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Ferrovial

(BME:FER)

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Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

€54.00

▲(11.13% Upside)

Ferrovial's strong financial performance and strategic growth in North American highways are significant strengths, contributing to a positive outlook. While technical indicators support a bullish trend, valuation is moderate. Earnings call insights reinforce growth potential, though some operational challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Negative Factors

Ferrovial (FER) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)

Market Cap

€35.14B

Dividend Yield1.59%

Average Volume (3M)669.69K

Price to Earnings (P/E)10.5

Beta (1Y)0.82

Revenue Growth5.75%

EPS Growth346.20%

CountryES

Employees25,264

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryIndustrial - Infrastructure Operations

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.24

Shares Outstanding733,755,400

10 Day Avg. Volume932,798

30 Day Avg. Volume669,694

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.01

Price to Book (P/B)4.84

Price to Sales (P/S)3.21

P/FCF Ratio27.56

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

€51.57

Price Target Upside6.13% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering10

Ferrovial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFerrovial, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an infrastructure and mobility operator in the United States, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. The company engages in the design and construction of various public and private works; and development, finance, and operation of toll roads. Its construction activities include highways, tunnels, railways, bridges and viaducts, airports, intelligent toll systems, port and airport infrastructures, buildings, energy restoration, aqueducts, water treatment plants, desalination plants, digesters, thermal drying plants, chimneys and silos, caissons, storage tanks, solar power towers, oil facilities, and other construction. The company is also involved in the operation and maintenance services of urban and industrial waste water treatment plants, and water treatment and desalination plants. In addition, it develops, manufactures, and markets asphalt and bitumen products; develops, finances, and operates airports; provides integrated solutions for the development and management of electrical transmission networks; provides mobility services, including ZITY, an electric carsharing service application; undertakes engineering works; and sells hydraulic equipment. The company was founded in 1952 and is based in Madrid, Spain.

How the Company Makes MoneyFerrovial generates revenue through diverse streams, primarily from its construction and infrastructure management activities. The construction segment involves bidding for and executing contracts for public and private projects, including roads, railways, and buildings, which provide a significant portion of its earnings. The Airports division contributes through the ownership and operation of airport facilities, generating income from passenger traffic and associated services. Toll roads offer a steady revenue stream through user fees. Additionally, the Services segment focuses on facility management, urban services, and environmental services, providing ongoing contracts with municipalities and private entities. Strategic partnerships with governments and private firms for large infrastructure projects also enhance its revenue potential, alongside its international presence in markets such as the United States, Canada, and the UK.

Ferrovial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a strong performance across Ferrovial's business divisions, particularly in North American highways, with significant revenue and EBITDA growth. Strategic investments and divestments have strengthened the company's position. However, challenges such as adverse weather impacts, a decline in dividends from North American highways, and operating cash flow issues present some concerns.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Robust Performance Across Business Divisions

Strong revenue and EBITDA growth in North American highways assets, with highway revenues growing 14.9% and adjusted EBITDA improving 17.1% in the first half of 2025.

Strategic Investments and Divestments

Closed acquisition of an additional 5.06% stake in 407 ETR for CAD 1.99 billion. Divested entire stake in Heathrow Airport for GBP 466 million and AGS Airports for EUR 533 million.

407 ETR Double-Digit Growth

407 ETR revenue grew by 19.7% and EBITDA by 13% in the first half of 2025. Traffic improved by 5.8% in Q2.

Positive Developments in U.S. Managed Lanes

I-66 revenue per transaction grew 22.5% in the first half, and I-77 revenue per transaction grew 23.8%.

Construction Segment Solid Performance

Construction revenues reached EUR 3,453 million, up 2.6% like-for-like, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 3.5%.

New Terminal One at JFK on Schedule

Construction advanced 72% by the end of Q2 2025. Issued $1.4 billion in long-term green bonds for refinancing Phase A.

Negative Updates

Decline in Dividends from North American Highways

Dividends from North American highways totaled EUR 240 million in the first half, compared to EUR 339 million in the same period last year.

Adverse Weather Impact on Traffic

Heavy rains negatively impacted performance in U.S. Managed Lanes, with NTE traffic declining 4.8% in the first half of the year.

Operating Cash Flow Challenges

Operating cash flow was negative EUR 104 million in the first half, compared with negative EUR 53 million in the same period last year.

Schedule 22 Provision at 407 ETR

Provision of CAD 45.2 million was accrued for expected Schedule 22 payments in the first half of 2025.

Dalaman Airport Traffic Decline

Traffic at Dalaman Airport in Turkey declined slightly by 0.3% in the first half, impacted by lower domestic passenger volumes.

Company Guidance

During the call discussing Ferrovial's financial performance for the first half of 2025, several key metrics and guidance were highlighted. The company reported strong growth in its Highways division, with revenues increasing by 14.9% and adjusted EBITDA improving by 17.1% on a like-for-like basis, primarily driven by U.S. assets. The U.S. highways alone saw revenue growth of 15.9% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 14%, comprising a significant portion of the total revenues and EBITDA. In the Construction division, Ferrovial achieved an adjusted EBIT margin of 3.5%, aligning with its long-term target. Additionally, the company ended the first half with a net debt position of negative EUR 223 million, excluding infrastructure project companies, and highlighted significant capital allocation activities, including the acquisition of an additional stake in 407 ETR for EUR 1.3 billion and the divestment of AGS Airports for EUR 533 million. The New Terminal One at JFK Airport reported 72% construction progress, and the company issued $1.4 billion in long-term green bonds for refinancing. Furthermore, Ferrovial maintained a robust order book valued at EUR 17.3 billion, with significant contributions from North America, and reported a negative operating cash flow of EUR 104 million, attributed to the absence of advanced payments. The call concluded with an emphasis on continued strategic growth and a promising pipeline of U.S. highway projects.

Ferrovial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ferrovial demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and improved profit margins. High leverage is a concern, but effective equity returns and solid cash flow generation support the company's financial stability.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Ferrovial shows strong revenue growth, with a 7.43% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust at around 87.85%, and the net profit margin improved significantly to 35.42%. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, indicating efficient operational management. However, fluctuations in EBIT over the years suggest potential volatility.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is high, reflecting significant leverage with a ratio of approximately 1.90 in 2024. Despite this, return on equity has improved, reaching 53.33%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds. The equity ratio stands at 20.94%, suggesting moderate reliance on equity financing.

Cash Flow

Positive

Free cash flow growth is slightly negative at -9.35%, but the company maintains a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.40, reflecting solid cash generation capability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.33, indicating good cash conversion efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.35B	9.15B	8.51B	7.55B	6.78B	6.34B
Gross Profit	8.14B	8.03B	7.47B	6.35B	5.70B	5.34B
EBITDA	1.40B	4.30B	1.31B	924.00M	1.51B	116.00M
Net Income	3.37B	3.24B	460.00M	188.00M	1.20B	-424.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	26.56B	29.00B	26.32B	26.28B	24.90B	23.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.83B	4.81B	4.76B	5.09B	5.48B	6.42B
Total Debt	10.34B	11.53B	11.56B	11.84B	10.75B	9.76B
Total Liabilities	18.91B	20.88B	20.44B	19.93B	19.06B	19.30B
Stockholders Equity	5.90B	6.08B	3.77B	4.11B	4.05B	3.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	925.00M	1.07B	1.18B	907.00M	686.00M	977.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.47B	1.29B	1.26B	1.00B	810.00M	1.09B
Investing Cash Flow	564.00M	1.31B	-531.00M	-732.00M	457.00M	382.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.69B	-2.59B	-1.30B	-316.00M	-2.22B	430.00M

Ferrovial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price48.59

Price Trends

50DMA

46.44

Positive

100DMA

45.59

Positive

200DMA

43.17

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.74

Negative

RSI

64.22

Neutral

STOCH

79.47

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:FER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.64, above the 50-day MA of 46.44, and above the 200-day MA of 43.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:FER.

Ferrovial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FER	77 Outperform	€35.14B	10.51	69.30%	1.59%	5.75%	346.20%
CAF	73 Outperform	1.81B	14.59	11.70%	2.52%	6.84%	16.03%
FCC	70 Outperform	5.31B	22.40	15.73%	4.45%	5.00%	-64.19%
ACS	69 Neutral	17.77B	20.21	17.55%	2.88%	25.47%	7.63%
ENO	65 Neutral	2.05B	-21.96	60.45%	34.41%	11.61%	-212.68%
SCYR	64 Neutral	2.76B	29.80	11.26%	5.75%	2.75%	-42.39%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ES:FER

Ferrovial

48.59

10.75

28.40%

GB:0HAC

Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA

67.80

26.85

65.57%

GB:0RKF

Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles

53.50

19.26

56.25%

GB:0K97

Elecnor

24.20

11.04

83.89%

GB:0HAA

Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas

11.24

1.63

16.96%

GB:0OFU

Sacyr SA

3.51

0.40

12.86%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 11, 2025