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Ferrovial SA (ES:FER)
BME:FER

Ferrovial (FER) AI Stock Analysis

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ES

Ferrovial

(BME:FER)

78Outperform
Ferrovial demonstrates strong financial performance and positive earnings sentiment, contributing to a robust stock outlook. High leverage and bearish short-term technical indicators present some risk, but undervaluation and solid dividend yield provide a compelling investment case. Overall, the stock is well-positioned for growth, bolstered by significant achievements and financial stability.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Ferrovial published a consensus-beating set of FY-24 results, driven by the Heathrow capital gain and fair value.
Order Book Growth
The order book increased +7% LFL to €16.8bn, implying a 1.22x book-to-bill ratio, which bodes well for future activity.
Revenue Performance
US Managed Lanes beat revenue expectations by a notable +8%, with excellent performance at NTE (+11%) and I-66 (+10%).
Negative Factors
Macroeconomic Challenges
The combination of Macro/FX headwinds and nature of US managed lanes push EBITDA estimates down 5-7% over 2025-27e.
Market Valuation
Cintra's earnings appear too high and shares fail to offer a discounted entry point.
Traffic Performance
The 407ETR results, published on October 24, missed consensus expectations at the traffic level.

Ferrovial (FER) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Ferrovial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFerrovial, S.A. is a leading global infrastructure operator and municipal services company headquartered in Spain. It primarily operates in four main sectors: construction, toll roads, airports, and services. The company is renowned for its involvement in the design, construction, financing, operation, and maintenance of transport infrastructure, including highways, railways, and airports. Ferrovial is committed to sustainable development and innovation, enhancing mobility and urban services worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyFerrovial makes money through a diversified revenue model centered on its four main sectors: construction, toll roads, airports, and services. In the construction sector, Ferrovial earns revenue by undertaking large-scale infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, and railways, often through long-term contracts with governments and private entities. The toll roads segment generates income by operating and managing toll roads, where revenue comes from toll collections from vehicles using these roads. In the airports sector, Ferrovial generates revenue through its ownership and operation of airports, benefiting from landing fees, passenger fees, and commercial activities within the airport premises. The services segment includes facility management, waste management, and other municipal services, where revenue is generated through contracts with local governments and private clients. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures, particularly in toll roads and airports, also contribute to Ferrovial's earnings by expanding its operational reach and sharing investment burdens with partners.

Ferrovial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
9.15B8.51B7.55B6.78B6.34B
Gross Profit
8.03B7.38B6.35B5.70B5.34B
EBIT
3.11B625.00M690.00M185.00M-143.00M
EBITDA
4.54B1.31B756.00M610.00M116.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
3.24B460.00M185.00M1.20B-356.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.81B4.76B5.09B5.48B6.42B
Total Assets
29.00B26.32B26.28B24.90B23.13B
Total Debt
11.53B11.56B11.84B10.75B9.76B
Net Debt
6.72B6.81B6.75B5.28B3.33B
Total Liabilities
20.88B20.44B19.93B19.06B19.30B
Stockholders Equity
6.08B3.77B4.11B4.05B3.19B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.07B1.18B907.00M686.00M977.00M
Operating Cash Flow
1.29B1.26B1.00B810.00M1.09B
Investing Cash Flow
1.31B-531.00M-732.00M457.00M382.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-2.59B-1.30B-316.00M-2.22B430.00M

Ferrovial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price43.81
Price Trends
50DMA
40.98
Positive
100DMA
40.96
Positive
200DMA
39.05
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.60
Negative
RSI
67.11
Neutral
STOCH
91.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:FER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.39, above the 50-day MA of 40.98, and above the 200-day MA of 39.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:FER.

Ferrovial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
ESFER
78
Outperform
€31.19B9.8065.54%1.45%7.43%608.14%
ESFCC
72
Outperform
€4.88B11.128.78%4.91%0.50%-26.45%
ESACS
70
Outperform
€13.12B15.5916.48%2.87%16.50%7.64%
64
Neutral
$4.28B11.805.33%250.46%4.10%-9.26%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ES:FER
Ferrovial
43.81
9.52
27.77%
ES:FCC
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas
10.73
1.61
17.66%
ES:ACS
Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA
56.65
19.81
53.77%

Ferrovial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 28, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 1.27%|
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call for Ferrovial highlighted strong financial performance with record dividends and significant growth in revenues and EBITDA. The company also achieved major construction milestones and sustainability targets. However, there were minor setbacks such as traffic decreases due to construction and impacts from natural disasters. Overall, the sentiment is positive due to the overwhelming number of achievements and financial successes.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Dividend Distributions
Ferrovial received €947 million in dividends from infrastructure assets, marking an all-time high, including the first dividend distributions from I-66 and I-77 of €89 million and €205 million respectively.
Strong Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenues totaled €9.5 billion, a 6.7% year-over-year increase on a like-for-like basis. Adjusted EBITDA surged to €1.3 billion, marking a 38.9% year-over-year increase.
Successful Asset Divestments
Collected €2.6 billion from divestments, including the sale of a 19.75% stake in Heathrow Airport for €2 billion and a 5% stake in IRB Infrastructure Developers for €211 million.
Significant Construction Milestones
The construction of the new Terminal One at JFK advanced significantly, reaching 60% completion by the end of 2024.
Positive Shareholder Returns
Returned $831 million to shareholders and repurchased shares totaling €272 million. Total shareholder return in 2024 was 25.7%.
Strong Performance of North American Toll Roads
North American toll roads revenues increased by 22.8% and EBITDA by 22.2%. Traffic and revenue per transaction showed significant growth across multiple assets.
High Sustainability Achievements
Achieved a 26% reduction in the serious injury and fatality frequency rate, a 35.8% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 CO2 emissions, and a 26.7% reduction in water consumption.
Negative Updates
Traffic Decrease at NTE Due to Construction
Traffic decreased by 2.2% at NTE due to capacity improvement construction works.
Impact from Hurricane Helene on I-77
Revenue per transaction on I-77 was impacted by temporary subsidy of toll rates to support recovery efforts after Hurricane Helene, affecting Q4 performance.
Company Guidance
In the 2024 fiscal year, Ferrovial demonstrated strong financial performance across its various business divisions, with several key metrics highlighted. The company's revenues reached €9.5 billion, marking a 6.7% year-over-year increase on a like-for-like basis, driven primarily by higher revenues in Toll Roads and Construction. Adjusted EBITDA surged by 38.9% to €1.3 billion, mainly due to contributions from US Toll Road assets and the Construction division. Ferrovial's construction order book hit an all-time high of €16.8 billion, with nearly half originating from North America. The company also reported a net debt position of minus €1.8 billion, excluding infrastructure projects. Shareholder returns were robust, with a total return of 25.7% in 2024. Dividends from projects hit a record €947 million, including initial distributions from I-66 and I-77, while total investments reached €1.6 billion. Additionally, Ferrovial collected €2.6 billion from divestments, including a €2 billion sale of a 19.75% stake in Heathrow Airport. The company also returned $831 million to shareholders, including €272 million in share repurchases.

Ferrovial Corporate Events

Ferrovial SE to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results
Apr 25, 2025

Ferrovial SE has announced that it will release its financial results for the first quarter of 2025 on May 13, 2025, after the U.S. stock market closes. The following day, a presentation conference will be held to discuss these results, indicating the company’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Ferrovial Announces Key Decisions from 2025 Shareholders’ Meeting
Apr 24, 2025

Ferrovial’s 2025 General Shareholders’ Meeting resulted in several key decisions, including the approval of the 2024 fiscal year’s annual accounts and the re-election of several directors. The meeting also saw the appointment of PriceWaterhouseCoopers as the external auditor for the next three years and authorized the Board to issue shares and manage share capital flexibly. These decisions are set to impact Ferrovial’s operational flexibility and strategic positioning, potentially enhancing shareholder value and aligning with sustainability goals.

Ferrovial Executes Operations in Share Buyback Program
Apr 22, 2025

Ferrovial has announced the execution of operations under its share buyback program, which was initially launched in August 2024 and modified in December 2024. The recent operations conducted between April 11 and April 17, 2025, are part of this ongoing program, reflecting the company’s strategic financial management and potential implications for shareholder value.

Ferrovial Executes Operations in Share Buyback Program
Apr 15, 2025

Ferrovial announced the execution of operations under its share buyback program between April 7 and April 10, 2025. This program, initially launched in August 2024 and modified in December 2024, reflects the company’s strategic efforts to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Ferrovial’s 2024 Integrated Annual Report Highlights Sustainability and Compliance
Apr 4, 2025

Ferrovial has released its 2024 Integrated Annual Report, detailing its management and financial performance, sustainability efforts, and compliance with international regulations. The report highlights the company’s commitment to transparency and alignment with global standards, impacting its operations and stakeholder relations positively.

Ferrovial Executes Share Buyback Operations
Mar 18, 2025

Ferrovial has announced the execution of operations within its share buyback program, initially launched in August 2024 and modified in December 2024. The recent operations were conducted between March 10 and March 14, 2025, as part of the ongoing program, indicating the company’s continued focus on managing its share capital.

Ferrovial Launches Strategic Share Buyback Program
Mar 14, 2025

Ferrovial has announced a share buyback program aimed at reducing its share capital by purchasing up to 15 million shares, representing approximately 2.06% of its share capital, with a maximum net investment of 500 million euros. The program is set to run until May 29, 2026, and will adhere to regulatory standards in both European and U.S. markets, with the potential for extension or early termination based on certain conditions. This move is likely to impact the company’s market positioning and shareholder value, demonstrating its strategic financial management.

Ferrovial Announces 2025 General Shareholders’ Meeting
Mar 14, 2025

Ferrovial has announced the call for its General Shareholders’ Meeting scheduled for April 24, 2025, in Amsterdam. The meeting will be a hybrid event, allowing shareholders to attend and vote either in person or electronically. Key agenda items include discussions on the company’s financial and ESG performance for 2024, approval of annual accounts, climate strategy, and re-election of board members. The board recommends voting in favor of all proposed resolutions, which are expected to benefit Ferrovial and its stakeholders.

Ferrovial Expands Stake in Toronto’s 407 ETR Highway
Mar 13, 2025

Ferrovial has agreed to acquire up to a 5.06% stake in the 407 ETR highway from AtkinsRéalis, increasing its total ownership to 48.29%. This transaction, valued at approximately 2.090 billion Canadian dollars, is structured in two parts and is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025. The 407 ETR is a significant toll road in the Toronto metropolitan area, crucial for reducing traffic congestion. This acquisition underscores Ferrovial’s long-term commitment to enhancing infrastructure and mobility in the region, strengthening its position in the North American market.

Ferrovial’s Commitment to Strong Corporate Governance
Feb 28, 2025

Ferrovial’s Corporate Governance Report emphasizes the company’s commitment to strong governance practices, aligning with both national and international standards. The report outlines the governance structure, including a one-tier board with executive and non-executive directors, and the establishment of committees to enhance decision-making processes. This governance framework is designed to foster accountability, transparency, and sustainable long-term value creation, benefiting stakeholders such as shareholders, employees, and creditors.

Ferrovial’s 2024 Remuneration Report Highlights Strategic Adjustments
Feb 28, 2025

Ferrovial’s 2024 Annual Report on Directors’ Remuneration outlines the company’s remuneration policy and its alignment with long-term sustainable performance. The report highlights the settlement of annual variable remuneration for 2024 and adjustments to the Long-Term Incentive Plan, emphasizing a stronger focus on the US market. The Board is set to propose a new Remuneration Policy at the 2025 General Shareholders’ Meeting, reflecting modifications for Directors and Executive Directors. The company also meets the European Directive on gender balance among directors, with 33.3% female representation on its Board.

Ferrovial SE Reports FY 2024 Financial Results
Feb 28, 2025

Ferrovial SE has released its financial results for FY 2024, highlighting the use of alternative performance measures to assess its financial and operational performance. These non-IFRS measures are utilized by management for decision-making and resource allocation, providing insights into the company’s indebtedness and financial structure, which are crucial for analysts and investors.

Ferrovial Releases 2024 Integrated Annual Report Emphasizing Sustainability and Compliance
Feb 28, 2025

Ferrovial has released its 2024 Integrated Annual Report, which includes a comprehensive overview of its management and financial performance. The report highlights the company’s adherence to international sustainability standards and regulations, emphasizing transparency and consistency in environmental, social, and governance impacts. Ferrovial’s engagement with EY for assurance on non-financial information underscores its commitment to sustainability and regulatory compliance, potentially strengthening its industry position and stakeholder trust.

Ferrovial SE Announces FY 2024 Financial Results
Feb 28, 2025

Ferrovial SE’s financial results for FY 2024 highlight the company’s strategic focus on leveraging alternative performance measures to assess its operational efficiency and financial health. The release underscores the company’s commitment to transparency and compliance with international financial reporting standards, while also addressing potential risks and uncertainties that could impact its future performance.

Ferrovial Releases 2024 Integrated Annual Report Highlighting Sustainability and Governance
Feb 28, 2025

Ferrovial has released its 2024 Integrated Annual Report, which includes a comprehensive overview of its financial and non-financial performance. The report highlights the company’s adherence to international sustainability standards and regulatory frameworks, reflecting its commitment to transparency and corporate governance. The document was prepared in compliance with Dutch and Spanish laws, and it includes insights into the company’s strategy, risk management, and sustainability efforts, which are crucial for stakeholders and investors.

Ferrovial to Sell Stake in Heathrow Parent Company
Feb 26, 2025

Ferrovial has announced a binding agreement to sell its entire 5.25% stake in FGP Topco Ltd., the parent company of Heathrow Airport Holdings Ltd., to Ardian for approximately GBP 455 million. This transaction, which also involves other Topco shareholders selling an additional 4.75% stake, is subject to certain regulatory conditions and shareholder rights, potentially impacting Ferrovial’s investment portfolio and market positioning.

Ferrovial Updates on Share Buyback Program Operations
Feb 18, 2025

Ferrovial has announced the execution of operations within its share buyback program, which was initially launched in August 2024 and modified in December 2024. The recent operations conducted between February 10 and February 14, 2025, are part of the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value.

Ferrovial Executes Share Buyback Operations
Feb 11, 2025

Ferrovial has announced operations under its share buyback program, initially launched in August 2024 and modified in December 2024. The company executed these buyback operations between February 3 and February 7, 2025, indicating ongoing efforts to manage its equity structure, which can impact shareholder value and market perception.

Ferrovial SE to Announce 2024 Financial Results
Feb 10, 2025

Ferrovial SE will release its financial results for the fiscal year 2024 on February 27, 2025, followed by a results presentation conference on February 28. Stakeholders can access the presentation via webcast or telephone, with details available on the company’s website.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.