Erin Energy (ERINQ) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q3, 2017
Source: the company's latest filing for the period ended Sep 30, 2017, filed Nov 08, 2017
Risk Change Over Time
- Debt & Financing - Risk 1We have substantial indebtedness and may incur substantially more debt. Higher levels of indebtedness make us more vulnerable to economic downturns and adverse developments in our business.
As of September 30, 2017, we had approximately $24.9 million of outstanding principal under the 2011 Promissory Note, $50.0 million of outstanding principal under the 2014 Convertible Subordinated Note, $48.5 million of outstanding principal under the 2015 Convertible Note, $84.0 million outstanding principal under the Term Loan Facility, $6.4 million of outstanding principal under the 2016 Promissory Note and $63.2 million of outstanding principal under the MCB Finance Facility, and we may incur additional indebtedness in the future. Our level of indebtedness has, or could have, important consequences to our business because: - a substantial portion of our cash flows from operations will be dedicated to interest and principal payments and may not be available for operations, working capital, capital expenditures, expansion, acquisitions, general corporate or other purposes;- it may impair our ability to obtain additional financing in the future for acquisitions, capital expenditures or general corporate purposes;- it may limit our flexibility in planning for, or reacting to, changes in our business and industry; and - we may be substantially more leveraged than some of our competitors, which may place us at a relative competitive disadvantage and make us more vulnerable to downturns in our business, our industry or the economy in general. In addition, the terms of the Term Loan Facility and the MCB Finance Facility restrict, and the terms of any future indebtedness including any future credit facility may restrict, our ability to incur additional indebtedness and grant liens because of debt or financial covenants we are, or may be, required to meet and compliance with certain negative covenants restricting the incurrence of addition indebtedness. Thus, we may not be able to obtain sufficient capital to grow our business or implement our business strategy and may lose opportunities to acquire interests in oil properties or related businesses because of our inability to fund such growth. Our ability to comply with restrictions and covenants, including those in the Term Loan Facility, the MCB Finance Facility or in any future credit facility, is uncertain and will be affected by the levels of cash flow from our operations and events or circumstances beyond our control. Our failure to comply with any of the restrictions and covenants in the Term Loan Facility and the MCB Facility could result in a default, which could permit the lenders to accelerate repayments and foreclose on the collateral securing such indebtedness.
- Debt & Financing - Risk 2Due to our lack of liquidity, we may not be able to make the required principal and interest payments under the Term Loan Facility, the MCB Facility and other indebtedness or to satisfy our obligations under our trade payables.
As a result of the current low commodity prices and a prior history of low oil production volumes due to the shut-in of well Oyo-8 from September 2015 to May 2016 and the currently shut-in well Oyo 7, the Company has not been able to generate sufficient cash from operations to satisfy certain obligations as they become due. The Company has been relying on drawdowns under the MCB Facility and short-term promissory notes, such as the 2016 Promissory Note, with an entity related to the Company's majority shareholder which notes have been foreclosed on and transferred to an unrelated party to supplement the Company's liquidity needs, but we may not be able to continue to borrow funds under the MCB Facility in the future or the related party may not continue to provide such short-term loans in the future. Pursuant to the Term Loan Facility, Zenith has the right to review the terms and conditions of the Term Loan Facility. The Company did not pay the installment due and payable on September 30, 2017 and obtained a waiver from MCB to waive any event of default arising from the non-payment until December 31, 2017. The Company is currently in discussions with MCB on a revised principal repayment schedule. Our failure to make the required payments under the MCB Facility or the Term Loan Facility, or to comply with its applicable debt covenants could result in a default under the applicable facility and a cross-default under the other facility and the Related Party Notes (defined and described above under "Note 7 - Debt - Long-Term Debt - Related Party", from the notes to the unaudited consolidated financial statements set forth above under "Part I Financial Information" - "Item 1 - Financial Statements"), which could result in the acceleration of the payment of such indebtedness, termination of commitments to make further loans to us, prevention of our development drilling on the Oyo field and other operations, loss of our ownership interests in the secured properties or otherwise materially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Also, if we are unable to service our debt obligations or obligations under our trade payables generally, Company may be unable to continue in its current state or continue to operate as a going concern.
Risk Highlights Q3, 2017
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 46
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1Our business partner, CEHL, is a related party, and our former executive chairman and CEO is a principal owner and one of the directors of CEHL, which may result in real or perceived conflicts of interest.
Dr. Lawal, the Company's former Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer, who retired from the Company in May 2016, is a director of each of CEHL and Allied, also entities constituting the CEHL Group. Further, Dr. Lawal owns 27.7% of CAMAC International Limited, which indirectly owns 100% of CEHL. Allied is a wholly owned subsidiary of CEHL. The holder of our 2016 Promissory Note is a subsidiary of CAMAC International Limited. As a result, Dr. Lawal may be deemed to have an indirect material interest in any transactions with CEHL including the agreements entered into with CEHL in April 2010, the OMLs transaction, the 2011 Promissory Note, the 2014 Convertible Subordinated Note, the 2015 Convertible Note with Allied, and the 2016 Promissory Note (see Note 9. - Debt to the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for further information regarding the 2011 Promissory Note, the 2014 Convertible Subordinated Note, the 2015 Convertible Note, and the 2016 Promissory Note) and the Transfer Agreement with Allied (see Note 4. - Acquisitions to the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for further information). These relationships may result in conflicts of interest. Although processes and procedures are in place within the Company to guard against such potential conflicts of interest, we may not be able to prove that these agreements are equivalent to arm's length transactions. Should our transactions not provide the value equivalent of arm's length transactions, our results of operations may suffer, and we may be subject to costly shareholder litigation.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 2If CEHL, our majority shareholder, loses its status as an indigenous Nigerian oil and gas operator, we would no longer be eligible for preferential treatment in the acquisition of oil and gas assets and oil and gas licensing rounds in Nigeria.
The Company by virtue of our majority stockholder, CEHL, which has indigenous status in Nigeria, is eligible for preferential treatment under the Nigerian Content Development Act with respect to the acquisition of oil and gas assets and in oil and gas licensing rounds in Nigeria. If CEHL were to lose its status as an indigenous Nigerian oil and gas company due to its affiliation with our U.S.-based company or otherwise, or if CEHL's majority interest in us were to be diluted or reduced due to additional issuances of equity by the Company, or if CEHL were to sell or transfer its interest in the Company or otherwise, we may lose our status as an indigenous Nigerian oil and gas operator. As a result, we would lose one of our key advantages in the Nigerian oil and gas market, and our results of operations could materially suffer.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 3CAMAC Energy Holdings Limited is our majority stockholder, and it may take actions that conflict with the interests of other stockholders.
Following the Allied Transaction, CEHL beneficially owned approximately 56.7% of our outstanding shares of our common stock and continues to own a majority interest. CEHL controls the power to elect our directors, to appoint members of management and to approve all actions requiring the approval of the holders of our common stock, including adopting amendments to our Certificate of Incorporation and approving mergers, acquisitions or sales of all or substantially all of our assets, subject to certain restrictive covenants. The interests of CEHL as our controlling stockholder could conflict with your interests as a holder of Company common stock. For example, CEHL as our controlling stockholder may have an interest in pursuing acquisitions, divestitures, financings or other transactions that, in its judgment, could enhance its equity investment even though such transactions might involve risks to you, as minority holders of the Company.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 4The Company's stockholders may not be able to enforce United States civil liabilities claims.
Many of the Company's assets are and are expected to continue to be located outside the United States and held through one or more subsidiaries incorporated under the laws of foreign jurisdictions. Substantially all of the Company's operations are and are expected to continue to be conducted in Africa. In addition, some of the Company's directors and officers, including directors and officers of its subsidiaries, may be residents of countries other than the United States. All or a substantial portion of the assets of these persons may be located outside the United States. As a result, it may be difficult for shareholders to effect service of process within the United States upon these persons. In addition, there is uncertainty as to whether the foreign courts would recognize or enforce judgments of United States courts obtained against the Company or such persons predicated upon the civil liability provisions of the securities laws of the United States or any state thereof or be competent to hear original actions brought in these countries against the Company or such persons predicated upon the securities laws of the United States or any state thereof.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 5The market price of the Company's common stock may be adversely affected by a number of factors related to the Company's performance, the performance of other energy-related companies and the stock market in general.
The market prices of securities of energy companies are extremely volatile and sometimes reach unsustainable levels that bear no relationship to the past or present operating performance of such companies. Factors that may contribute to the volatility of the trading price of the Company's common stock include, among others: - financial predictions and recommendations by stock analysts concerning energy companies and companies competing in the Company's market in general, and concerning the Company in particular;- the Company's quarterly results of operations or variances between the Company's actual quarterly results of operations and predictions by stock analysts;- public announcements of regulatory changes or new ventures relating to the Company's business or its competitors, or acquisitions, joint ventures or strategic alliances by the Company or its competitors;- investor perception of the Company's business prospects or those of the oil and gas industry in general;- the timing of commencement of production of new wells;- the operating and stock price performance of other companies that investors or stock analysts may deem comparable to the Company;- large purchases or sales of the Company's common stock; and - general economic and financial conditions. In addition to the foregoing factors, the trading prices for equity securities in the stock market in general, and of energy-related companies in particular, have been subject to wide fluctuations that may be unrelated to the operating performance of the particular company affected by such fluctuations. Consequently, broad market fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the trading price of our common stock regardless of the Company's results of operations.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 6The limited market for the Company's common stock may adversely affect trading prices or the ability of a shareholder to sell the Company's shares in the public market at or near ask prices or at all if a shareholder needs to liquidate its shares.
The market price for shares of the Company's common stock has been, and is expected to continue to be, volatile. Numerous factors beyond the Company's control may have a significant effect on the market price for shares of the Company's common stock, including the fact that the Company is a small company that is relatively unknown to stock analysts, stock brokers, institutional investors and others in the investment community that generate or influence sales volumes. There may be periods of several days or more when trading activity in the Company's shares is minimal as compared to a seasoned issuer which has a large and steady volume of trading activity that will generally support continuous sales without an adverse effect on share price. Due to these conditions, investors may not be able to sell their shares at or near ask prices or at all if investors desire to liquidate their shares.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 7Our common stock is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange ("JSE"). However, a trading market may not successfully develop on the JSE.
There is a limited trading market for our common stock on the JSE. An active trading market may not successfully develop on the JSE, or if it does, it may not be sustained. In addition, we cannot assure what effect our listing on the JSE will have on our trading market on the NYSE MKT. In 2014, we issued an aggregate of 62.8 million shares of our common stock to the Public Investment Corporation (SOC) Limited ("PIC") of South Africa in a private placement. If PIC chooses to sell those shares on the JSE, sales of a large number of shares could have a negative effect on the market price of our shares on the JSE, which could have a negative effect on the market price of our shares on the NYSE MKT.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 8Substantial sales of the Company's common stock could cause the Company's stock price to fall.
The potential for substantial amounts of our common stock to be sold in the public market may adversely affect prevailing market prices for our common stock and could impair the Company's ability to raise capital through the sale of its equity securities. Additionally, we may issue and register a greater number of shares of common stock in order to meet our obligations to pay up to $50.0 million in oil and gas milestone payments under the Transfer Agreement or upon conversion of the 2014 Convertible Subordinated Note or the 2015 Convertible Note. All of such shares would be eligible for registration under a registration rights agreement.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 9Conversion of the 2014 Convertible Subordinated Note or the 2015 Convertible Note, in the event of a default thereunder, may dilute the ownership interest of existing stockholders.
The conversion of some or all of the 2014 Convertible Subordinated Note or the 2015 Convertible Note, in the event of a default thereunder, may dilute the ownership interests of existing stockholders. The 2014 Convertible Subordinated Note is convertible into 13.4 million shares of our common stock, which represents approximately 6.28% of our currently outstanding shares. The 2014 Convertible Subordinated Note is subject to anti-dilution adjustment provisions, including provisions that make it convertible into the same percentage of our outstanding shares if we issue shares of common stock or any convertible security at a price per share less than the conversion price. The 2015 Convertible Note is convertible into shares of the Company's common stock upon the occurrence and continuation of an event of default thereunder, at the sole option of the holder. The number of shares issuable upon conversion is equal to the sum of the principal amount and the accrued and unpaid interest divided by the conversion price, defined as the volume weighted average of the closing sales prices on the NYSE MKT for a share of common stock for the five complete trading days immediately preceding the conversion date. Any sales in the public market of the shares of our common stock issuable upon such conversions could adversely affect prevailing market prices of our common stock. In addition, the anticipated conversion of the 2014 Convertible Subordinated Note or the 2015 Convertible Note into shares of our common stock could depress the price of our common stock.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 10The Company's issuance of preferred stock could adversely affect the value of the Company's common stock.
The Company's Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation authorizes the issuance of up to 50.0 million shares of preferred stock, which shares constitute what is commonly referred to as "blank check" preferred stock. This preferred stock may be issued by the Board of Directors from time to time on any number of occasions, without stockholder approval, as one or more separate series of shares comprised of any number of the authorized but unissued shares of preferred stock, designated by resolution of the Board of Directors, stating the name and number of shares of each series and setting forth separately for such series the relative rights, privileges and preferences thereof, including, if any, the: (i) rate of dividends payable thereon; (ii) price, terms and conditions of redemption; (iii) voluntary and involuntary liquidation preferences; (iv) provisions of a sinking fund for redemption or repurchase; (v) terms of conversion to common stock, including conversion price; and (vi) voting rights. The designation of such shares could be dilutive of the interest of the holders of our common stock. The ability to issue such preferred stock could also give the Company's Board of Directors the ability to hinder or discourage any attempt to gain control of the Company by a merger, tender offer at a control premium price, proxy contest or otherwise.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 11The Company's executive officers, directors and major stockholders, including CEHL and PIC, hold a controlling interest in the Company's common stock and may be able to prevent other stockholders from influencing significant corporate decisions.
The executive officers, directors and holders of 5% or more of the outstanding common stock, if acting together, would be able to control all matters requiring approval by stockholders, including the election of Directors and the approval of significant corporate transactions. This concentration of ownership may also have the effect of delaying, deterring or preventing a change in control and may make some transactions more difficult or impossible to complete without the support of these stockholders.
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