TC Energy (TRS) Q2 2026 Earnings Report

The call emphasized strong operational execution, solid 2Q financial results (12% comparable EBITDA growth), active project sanctioning (~$3B YTD) and a materially expanded origination pipeline (> $20B) supported by rising gas demand forecasts (51 Bcf/day by 2035). Key strengths include Bruce Power outperformance, upward guidance confidence, sustainability progress and secured equipment/contractor strategies. Principal risks highlighted were timing and funding of a large late‑decade investment ramp, dynamic FID timing for the origination backlog, and the need to finalize regulatory/return frameworks in Canada. On balance, the positive operational and commercial momentum significantly outweighs the risks, which management is actively addressing.

Management reiterated they now expect to be at the upper end of 2026 comparable EBITDA guidance of $11.6–$11.8 billion and continue to target $12.6–$13.1 billion in 2028 (≈6% annualized midpoint growth from 2025), after reporting Q2 comparable EBITDA growth of 12% YoY and system-wide pipeline flows up 3%; operationally they placed ~$2 billion of assets into service in H1 2026 and expect ~$3.5 billion by year-end, have sanctioned roughly $3 billion YTD at a ~12% unlevered after‑tax IRR, moved pending approvals to about $7 billion (up $1 billion), and disclose a $20 billion+ origination backlog (≈2/3 power) with projects generally targeting 5–7x build multiples (Columbia projects ~5.8x); their outlook assumes ~51 Bcf/d incremental North American gas demand by 2035 (40% above 2025, +11 Bcf/d vs prior outlook), ~16 Bcf/d from power and >8 Bcf/d in Canada, while also noting Bruce Power availability of 99% (Unit 3 returned >7 months early and ~15% below Unit 6 cost), an AI-related 2026 incremental EBITDA target of $100 million (about halfway achieved), methane intensity down 24% since 2019 toward a 40–55% 2035 target, a 4.75x leverage goal, and the potential to scale annual growth investment materially in 2029–2031 with Bruce unlocking ~$2–$3 billion/year when MCR work completes in 2031–2032.