Somnigroup International (TPD) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For 2026, Somnigroup expects adjusted EPS to be between $2.85 and $3.15, with sales at the midpoint of approximately $7.6 billion after intercompany eliminations, which are expected to represent approximately 24% of global Tempur Sealy 2026 sales; the global bedding industry is expected to be down mid-single digits year-over-year, Tempur Sealy North America like-for-like sales growing low single digits, International business growing low single digits, and like-for-like Mattress Firm sales down slightly. Reported gross margins are expected to be slightly above 45%, including 100 basis points of net margin expansion from operational efficiencies, adjusted EBITDA is estimated at approximately $1.39 billion at the midpoint, Tempur Sealy brands and private labels are assumed to be in the mid-60s% of Mattress Firm total sales, representing an incremental $65 million of adjusted EBITDA benefit for 2026 versus 2025, with approximately $690 million of advertising investment. CapEx is expected to be approximately $225 million, including $75 million under Mattress Firm store refreshes and brand wall program, CapEx is expected to normalize to $200 million in future years, and at least 50% of free cash flow in 2026 is expected to go toward quarterly dividends and share repurchases; full-year D&A is expected to be approximately $310 million, interest expense approximately $230 million, the tax rate 25%, and diluted share count 213 million shares.