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Texas Capital Bancshares (TCA) AI Stock Analysis

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DE:TCA

Texas Capital Bancshares

(Frankfurt:TCA)

Rating:―N/A
Action:N/A
Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors
Commercial loan growthSustained commercial loan expansion shows strengthening client demand and growing relevance in the bank’s core business franchise. Commercial lending now represents a larger share of loans, supporting recurring interest income and providing a durable platform for treasury, payments, and other fee relationships.
Negative Factors
Commercial real estate contractionPersistent commercial real estate contraction removes a meaningful source of loan balances and interest income from the portfolio. Historically low construction starts and limited financing appetite may keep commitments declining, making replacement growth and efficient deployment of capital more important.

Texas Capital Bancshares (TCA) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%DE:TCA+24.51%EWG+6.47%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
EUR 3.89B
Dividend Yield
0.37%
Average Volume (3M)
―
Price to Earnings (P/E)
11.5
Beta (1Y)
0.59
Revenue Growth
-1.95%
EPS Growth
22.62%
Country
Germany
Employees
1,785
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Banks - Regional

Texas Capital Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. serves as the holding company for Texas Capital Bank, operating as a comprehensive financial services firm that delivers tailored solutions to businesses, entrepreneurs, and individual clients. Its offerings encompass c...

Texas Capital Bancshares Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 20, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:13.41%|Next Earnings Date:Jan 20, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive, with record earnings, revenue, net interest income, fee income, pre-provision net revenue, commercial loan growth, improved full-year revenue guidance, strong capital ratios, and continued momentum in investment banking, treasury, and wealth management. The main challenges were declining commercial real estate and mortgage finance balances, lower total deposits linked to broker-deposit runoff, higher expenses from hiring and technology restructuring, and ongoing credit and macroeconomic pressures. Management nevertheless characterized the firm as operating from a position of financial resilience and maintained its positive operating leverage and credit outlook.

Positive Updates

Record Quarterly Earnings and Revenue
Adjusted earnings per share reached a record $2.35, up 8% year over year and 25% linked quarter. Adjusted total revenue reached a record $357 million, up 5% year over year, while adjusted pre-provision net revenue reached a record $157 million, also up 5% year over year. Adjusted net income to common was another record at $103 million.

Negative Updates

Commercial Real Estate Balances Continued to Decline
Commercial real estate balances decreased 7% linked quarter to $4.8 billion, were down 11% year to date and 16% year over year, as payoffs continued to outpace client appetite for financing new projects. Management expects balances to end the year around $4.4 billion and said historically low construction starts are likely to result in a continued downward trajectory for commitments and funded balances.

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter of 2026, total non interest expense is expected at $205 million to $210 million, including $125 million to $130 million of salaries and benefits expense and approximately $80 million of all other non interest expense; total non interest income is expected to be $70 million to $75 million, with investment banking and sales and trading contributing $45 million to $50 million, NII is expected at $270 million to $275 million and margin at 3.45% to 3.50%, and the mortgage finance self funding ratio is expected to increase to approximately 85%; for full-year 2026, adjusted total revenue growth is expected in the high single digits versus adjusted total revenue of $1.26 billion in 2025, full year noninterest income is expected to reach $295 million to $300 million, noninterest expense growth is expected in the mid to high single digits versus $768.9 million in 2025, and provision is expected at 35 to 40 basis points of average LHI, excluding mortgage finance, based on an additional 25 basis points increase in December and an upper bound of the Federal Funds target range of 4.25% at year end.

Texas Capital Bancshares Risk Analysis

Texas Capital Bancshares disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Texas Capital Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Texas Capital Bancshares Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

DE:TCA against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
FFINFFIN78Outperform$4.50B15.1115.14%2.67%8.03%19.76%
TCBXTCBX70Outperform$676.43M8.5711.91%―17.96%9.46%
FSUNFSUN68Neutral$1.85B19.834.14%―44.68%-37.79%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
IBOCIBOC64Neutral$4.29B13.5012.66%2.14%2.17%0.36%
SBSISBSI64Neutral$1.06B10.3511.56%4.22%8.56%43.89%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%10%20%DE:TCAFFINIBOCSBSITCBXFSUNDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
DE:TCA and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
DE:TCATexas Capital Bancshares93.0018.3124.51%
FFINFirst Financial Bankshares30.680.230.74%
IBOCInternational Bancshares68.303.785.86%
SBSISouthside Bancshares34.366.8024.69%
TCBXThird Coast Bancshares Inc39.101.704.55%
FSUNFirstSun Capital Bancorp39.667.4122.98%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.