Trimble (TB5) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Trimble raised its 2026 midpoints, increasing full‑year revenue by $50 million to $3.925 billion (≈9% y/y) and EPS by $0.10 to $3.65 (≈17% y/y), now targeting EBITDA margins of approximately 30% (the high end of prior guidance and the 2027 target achieved a year early); ARR is expected toward the low‑to‑mid end of the range after a Field Systems ARR adjustment to high single‑digit to low double‑digit growth (a one‑time ~400–500 bp headwind to Field Systems ARR, ≈<100 bp at the company level), and free cash flow is now expected at ~0.9x non‑GAAP net income (down from ~1x due to incremental restructuring/onetime costs) with the company saying FCF should exceed non‑GAAP net income over the long term. For Q3 the midpoints are $965 million revenue (≈7% growth), $0.85 EPS, 12% ARR growth and 28.6% EBITDA margin. These raises are supported by strong Q2 results (organic revenue +10% to $972M, ARR +12% to a record $2.509B, AECO ARR $1.577B +14%, Field Systems ARR $399M +12%, T&L ARR $533M +7%, gross margin 71.8% +120 bps, EBITDA margin 28.6% +120 bps, Q2 EPS $0.86, YTD free cash flow $502M, cash $214M, leverage 1.1x) and a new $1 billion share repurchase authorization.