Safe Bulkers (SBL) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was predominantly positive, supported by substantially improved earnings, higher charter rates, an increased dividend, strong liquidity, low leverage, fleet modernization, and a healthy near-term freight market. However, management also highlighted supply growth exceeding demand in the closed-Hormuz scenario, elevated asset prices, higher quarterly operating expenses, China and commodity-demand risks, environmental and aging-fleet challenges, refinancing uncertainty, and limited visibility beyond the next two or three quarters.

Management expects dry bulk supply growth of 3% to 4% in 2026 in closed Strait scenario versus 4% to 5% growth in open, and supply growth of 3% to 4% versus demand growth of about 1.5% for 2027 in the closed Hormuz scenario; global dry bulk demand growth is forecast at about 1.5% in 2027, iron ore demand up to 2.5%, coal demand down 1% to 2%, and China's GDP growth at 4.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, while India's GDP is forecasted at 7% in 2026 and for 2027 and Japan's at 0.7% in 2027. Management said the freight market is expected to remain healthy for the next 2 or 3 quarters, with Capesize ships fixing well over $30,000 for 2027 and near to $30,000 for 2028, and it fixed one Capesize opening in February 2027 at $37,500 for 12 to 15 months time charter; modern Kamsarmax vessels could be fixing today $25,000, $26,000 per day, while the company may trade spot or employ ships for 6 months or up to a year. The company will retain liquidity for 8 more ships, selectively consider secondhand acquisitions, continue returning money to shareholders if the spot market continues to perform, and wait on newbuilding opportunities.