Red Rock Resorts (RRK) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

The company provided clear near‑term and full‑year guidance: full‑year 2026 capital spending is expected at $375–$425 million (investment capex $275–$300M; maintenance $100–$125M); Durango North remains on schedule to open in H2‑2027 and North Fork is expected to open in early Q4‑2026 with total all‑in costs ~ $750M (Red Rock note receivable from the tribe ~$83.4M); Q2 results referenced as context were Las Vegas net revenue $503.2M (‑2% y/y), Las Vegas adjusted EBITDA $227.5M (‑5%) with a 45.2% margin (‑143 bps), consolidated net revenue $510.3M (‑3%), consolidated adjusted EBITDA $208.0M (‑9.3%) with a 40.8% margin (‑281 bps); the company converted 48% of adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow ($100M, $0.95/share in the quarter; $206.7M YTD, $1.97/share), ended Q2 with $136.5M cash, $3.6B debt (net debt ~$3.5B), and net debt/EBITDA 4.21x; expected seasonal cadence is Q3 ≈10% below Q2, with construction disruption modeled at ~$2.5M in Q3 (Q2 Green Valley impact ≈$7M from >21k lost room nights), a one‑time $8M 50th‑anniversary/brand marketing charge in Q3, a declared regular dividend of $0.26/share payable Sept 30 (record Sept 15), and ongoing project costs including Sunset Station ~$87M and the next phase at Green Valley Ranch ≈$56M—while the company has returned ~ $198M YTD to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.