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Republic Services (RPU) AI Stock Analysis

DE:RPU

Republic Services

(XETRA:RPU)

Rating:―N/A
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Positive Factors
Recurring integrated waste modelRecurring customer contracts and municipal arrangements support predictable service demand, while Republic’s integrated collection, transfer, recycling and landfill network captures economics across multiple stages. This combination can strengthen route density, customer retention and operating resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage uncertaintyMeaningful historical debt increases financial obligations and can constrain flexibility for acquisitions, capital investment or shareholder returns. The sharp inconsistency in the TTM debt figure also reduces confidence in the latest leverage snapshot, making balance-sheet risk harder to assess.

Republic Services (RPU) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%DE:RPU+25.57%EWG+4.43%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
EUR 74.73B
Dividend Yield
1.02%
Average Volume (3M)
45
Price to Earnings (P/E)
33.8
Beta (1Y)
-0.09
Revenue Growth
-0.68%
EPS Growth
2.17%
Country
Germany
Employees
42,000
Sector
Industrials
Sector Strength
63
Industry
Waste Management

Republic Services Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Republic Services, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, delivers comprehensive environmental services across the United States. The company specializes in the collection and processing of recyclable materials, alongside the gathering, transfer, and res...

Republic Services Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:3.64%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 22, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive overall. Republic Services delivered solid revenue, EBITDA, earnings, free cash flow, pricing, customer retention, Environmental Solutions growth, and volume improvement in its small and large container businesses. It also raised 2026 guidance and highlighted progress in acquisitions, digital initiatives, sustainability, and electric fleet deployment. The main challenges were residential volume declines, elevated diesel and health care costs, prior-year landfill event comparisons, higher landfill operating costs, and continued weakness in housing-related activity, but management indicated that several of these pressures were moderating or already reflected in guidance.

Positive Updates

Strong Third-Quarter Financial Performance
Republic Services reported third-quarter revenue growth of 8.2%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 4.8%, adjusted earnings per share of $1.94, and year-to-date adjusted free cash flow of $2.28 billion.

Negative Updates

Overall Volume Decline
Third-quarter volume decreased total revenue by 60 basis points and related revenue by 70 basis points. The decline included a 90 basis point headwind from event-driven landfill volumes received in the prior year; excluding that factor, the rest of the business increased 20 basis points year over year.

Company Guidance

For 2026, revenue is now expected to be in the range of $17.425 billion to $17.475 billion, adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $5.5 billion (sic) [ $5.550 billion ] to $5.575 billion, and adjusted free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $2.565 billion to $2.585 billion; Republic expects to finish 2026 with at least $1.2 billion in acquisition investments, an equivalent tax impact of approximately 24% for the full year, more than 300 EV trucks, and 2 additional RNG projects by year-end, while Environmental Solutions is expected to deliver positive revenue growth through the rest of the year and into 2027. For 2027, the long-term growth algorithm calls for consistently delivering mid-single-digit revenue growth while growing EBITDA, EPS and free cash flow even faster than revenue, driving 30 to 50 basis points of annual EBITDA margin expansion; recycling and waste will tip to positive growth in 2027 across the industry, Republic will try to match that or do a little better, Environmental Solutions will be on a nice growth trajectory, and residential volume is expected to land at roughly 2% lower.

Republic Services Risk Analysis

Republic Services disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Republic Services reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk
1..There have been no material changes to the risk factors disclosed in Part I, Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025.46Q2, 2026

Republic Services Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

DE:RPU against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
WMWM77Outperform$92.83B30.5230.85%1.57%5.19%19.97%
CLHCLH69Neutral$15.93B30.2418.27%―10.09%38.12%
Sector *63Neutral$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
PESIPESI50Neutral$264.17M-11.02-40.97%―-4.73%0.30%
CWSTCWST47Neutral$5.94B1001.390.36%―13.59%-50.47%
QRHCQRHC37Underperform$22.99M-1.32-47.42%―-8.37%32.03%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-25%0%25%50%DE:RPUCWSTCLHPESIWMQRHCDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
DE:RPU and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
DE:RPURepublic Services219.3043.1224.47%
CWSTCasella Waste Systems93.334.615.20%
CLHClean Harbors302.1293.4144.76%
PESIPerma-fix Environmental Services12.45-0.38-2.96%
WMWaste Management233.4539.9120.62%
QRHCQuest Resource Holding Corp1.09-0.35-24.31%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.