Vermilion Energy (CVZ) AI Stock Analysis

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Vermilion Energy

(Frankfurt:CVZ)

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Positive Factors

Improving operating performanceRevenue growth alongside materially improved gross and EBIT margins indicates stronger operating performance than in 2025. If maintained, this combination can support better conversion of production into earnings and provide a more durable foundation for future cash generation.

Negative Factors

Persistent net lossesLarge net losses remain the most significant fundamental weakness, limiting retained earnings and weakening the reliability of reported profitability. Losses in both the latest period and 2025 indicate that improved operating margins have not yet translated into sustainable bottom-line earnings.

Vermilion Energy (CVZ) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 1.63B
Dividend Yield: 3.71%
Average Volume (3M): 151
Price to Earnings (P/E): -4.8
Beta (1Y): -0.59
Revenue Growth: 1.23%
EPS Growth: -101.54%
Country: Germany
Employees: 636
Sector: Energy
Sector Strength: 65
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Vermilion Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its properties are located in the West Pembina region...

Vermilion Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026(Q1-2026)|% Change Since:-22.21%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call conveyed a predominantly positive tone driven by production outperformance, strong cash flow generation, meaningful debt reduction, substantial unit cost improvements and improved capital efficiency. Strategic actions (German acquisitions and acreage additions, asset sales to reduce debt, and inventory of liquids-rich drilling) further support the outlook. Near-term headwinds included cyclone-related downtime in Australia, realized hedge losses of $15 million and exposure to weak AECO pricing, but these were presented as manageable and in many cases temporary or timing-related. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights and management signaled confidence in delivering improved free cash flow and continued deleveraging.

Positive Updates

Production Beat and Strong Volumes

Total production averaged 125,600 BOE/d in Q1 2026, exceeding the upper end of guidance. Canadian production averaged 99,700 BOE/d (a 10% increase sequentially) and international production averaged 25,900 BOE/d. Liquids weighting was ~28% in Q1 and is expected to rise to ~31% in Q2.

Negative Updates

Cyclone-Related Downtime in Australia

Two consecutive cyclone events temporarily shut-in Australian operations, reducing international production in the quarter and requiring repairs and recovery efforts (though production resumed after the quarter).

Company Guidance

Guidance highlights included Q2 2026 production of 123,000–125,000 BOE/d (Q1 was 125,600 BOE/d, Canada 99,700 BOE/d, International 25,900 BOE/d), with liquids weighting rising from ~28% in Q1 to ~31% in Q2; Vermilion said it is trending to the upper end of full‑year guidance without increasing the capital budget and reiterated a $1.0B net‑debt target (net debt $1.29B as of Mar 31, down $50M this quarter and $770M YoY). Financial guidance/metrics included $232M of Q1 funds from operations, $135M of E&D capex, $98M of free cash flow, a realized hedge loss of $15M in Q1, and management’s update that 2026 excess free cash flow (EFCF) is now expected to be roughly double the original 2026 budget projection. Operational and cost guidance noted continued Montney per‑well cost improvement to $8.2M (down $300k), ongoing 3‑rig Deep Basin activity (Q1: 10 wells drilled, 14 completed, 18 brought on), and a bullish European gas price outlook (~$16/MMBtu realized in Q1 and ~ $20/MMBtu expected on average over the next four quarters, with Q2 > $20/MMBtu).

Vermilion Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

DE:CVZ against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSE:HWX	83Outperform	CAD 2.74B	15.24	24.24%	3.87%	12.71%	0.77%
TSE:PXT	71Outperform	CAD 1.89B	2.37	27.68%	7.44%	54.87%	433.57%
Sector *	65Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
TSE:KEL	61Neutral	CAD 2.05B	36.75	4.95%	―	30.30%	-24.69%
TSE:BIR	60Neutral	CAD 1.81B	19.70	4.22%	1.77%	10.48%	23.40%
TSE:CJ	58Neutral	CAD 1.96B	19.28	6.96%	6.29%	39.03%	25.09%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:CVZ and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:CVZ	Vermilion Energy	8.76	1.46	20.01%
TSE:BIR	Birchcliff Energy Ltd.	6.78	-0.05	-0.70%
TSE:HWX	Headwater Exploration Inc.	11.89	4.33	57.32%
TSE:KEL	Kelt Exploration	10.35	2.65	34.42%
TSE:PXT	Parex	20.70	3.71	21.83%
TSE:CJ	Cardinal Energy	11.45	3.43	42.86%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Vermilion Energy AI Stock Analysis