Canadian Natural (CRC) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was strongly positive, with record or near-record production across multiple operations, a Horizon turnaround completed ahead of schedule, substantial free cash flow and shareholder returns, early achievement of the net debt target and a favorable outlook for Q4 and 2027. The main challenges discussed were WCS differential pressure factors, a steam capacity constraint at Primrose Wolf Lake, higher upcoming cash tax payments and the dependence of buybacks on commodity prices.

Management expects a very strong fourth quarter, with approximately 23,000 barrels per day of incremental high-margin SCO production, and is targeting monthly share repurchases of $800 million in both November and December 2026, advancing buybacks to 100% of free cash flow per the policy; management said it would expect to continue on a similar basis should free cash flow continue to look strong in the new year, with a pretty strong 2027 and strong rates of share buybacks, until changes in commodity pricing. The cash tax payable in the first quarter of 2027 was estimated at $2.3 billion, $2.4 billion, could be a little higher, while the $800 million target holds unless there is a real significant shift in commodity pricing. The next Horizon turnaround would be in 2029, when the company will assess whether 4 years or potentially 5 years is within the realm.