Cognex (CGZ) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Excluding RealSense, Cognex expects fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of $270 million-$290 million, representing approximately 11% growth at the midpoint; adjusted EBITDA margin of 29%-32%, with the midpoint representing approximately 780 basis points of year-over-year expansion and approximately 100% revenue flow-through to adjusted EBITDA; and adjusted earnings per share of $0.37-$0.41, with the midpoint representing approximately 44% year-over-year growth. For full-year 2026, also excluding RealSense, the company expects revenue of $1.14 billion-$1.16 billion, representing approximately 16% growth at the midpoint, or 17% growth excluding the 2025 commercial partnership benefit; adjusted EBITDA margin of 31%-32%, representing approximately 1,000 basis points of year-over-year expansion, or approximately 1,080 basis points excluding the commercial partnership benefit; approximately $35 million of annualized net cost reductions, normalized for incentive compensation; approximately 93% flow-through of incremental revenue to adjusted EBITDA versus roughly 70% in 2025; and adjusted EPS of $1.68-$1.72, with the midpoint representing approximately 67% year-over-year growth, or 75% growth excluding the commercial partnership benefit, including approximately $0.08 per share of investment income versus the prior expectation of approximately $0.11 per share. Full-year end-market guidance includes double-digit growth across nearly all end markets, double-digit growth in logistics, packaging, and electronics, flat to low single-digit growth in automotive, and strong double-digit growth in semiconductor; for 2027, Dennis said flow-through may be around the 60% or so and “wouldn't put it as high as 90%,” while Matt said there were no concrete growth projections.