Cincinnati Financial (CCJ) Risk Analysis

We invest premiums received from policyholders and other available cash to generate investment income and capital appreciation, while also maintaining sufficient liquidity to pay covered claims and operating expenses, service our debt obligations and pay dividends. The value of our invested assets is an important component of shareholders' equity or book value per share and changes in their valuation can have a significant impact. Changes in book value per share is a key performance objective as discussed in Item 7, Executive Summary of Management's Discussion and Analysis. For fixed-maturity investments such as bonds, which represented 58.5% of the fair value of our investment portfolio at the end of 2025, the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices leads to falling bond values during periods of increasing interest rates. Significant increases in the general level of interest rates, such as we experienced during recent periods, have an adverse effect on our shareholders' equity. Investment income is an important component of our revenues and net income. The ability to increase investment income and generate longer-term growth in book value is affected by factors beyond our control, such as: inflation, trade policy, economic growth, interest rates, world political conditions, changes in laws and regulations, future actions or inactions of the U.S. government, epidemic events, terrorism attacks or threats, war, adverse events affecting other companies in our industry or the industries in which we invest, market events leading to credit constriction, and other widespread unpredictable events. These events have in the past and may in the future adversely affect the economy generally and cause our investment income or the value of securities we own to decrease. Wars can occur anywhere in the world and have an adverse effect on our investment portfolio, especially if effects of wars expand over time and space. We do not have material exposure to investments based in Russia, Ukraine, Israel or Gaza. If there is significant expansion of wars beyond these regions, it may have adverse effects on our investment performance. Any significant decline in our investment income will have an adverse effect on our net income, and thereby on our shareholders' equity and our statutory capital and surplus. For a more detailed discussion of risks associated with our investments, refer to Item 7A, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk. We have issued universal life contracts with guaranteed minimum returns, referred to as bank-owned life insurance contracts (BOLIs). A BOLI is designed with the bank as the policy owner and the policy beneficiary. We legally segregate and record as separate accounts the assets and liabilities for certain BOLIs, when required by the specific contract provisions. Minimum investment returns, account values and death benefits are guaranteed by us for our separate account BOLIs. We could incur losses in the performance of these guarantees. We also have life policy reserves established for traditional life policies including term, whole life and other products. Reserve variability can occur as reserves are based on certain cash flow assumptions as well as a discount rate assumption. Life policy reserves are required to be recorded using a discount rate assumption that is updated quarterly. As the discount rate increases during the quarter, life policy reserves decrease and accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) increases. Conversely, as the discount rate decreases during the quarter, life policy reserves increase and AOCI decreases. A significant decrease in discount rates, relative to the prior quarter, would have an adverse effect on shareholders' equity. Our investment performance also could suffer because of the types of investments, industry groups and/or individual securities in which we choose to invest. Market value changes related to these choices could cause a material change in our financial condition or results of operations. Our investments in private equity, private credit, real property assets, private limited partnerships, and other alternative investments are subject to a higher level of illiquidity, economic volatility and real estate market deterioration. They lack quoted prices and active trade markets, and are subject to changing tax laws and an increased focus from the SEC and other regulators. These alternative investments have in the past, and may in the future result in reduced net investment returns, losses on sales of these investments, and/or the writing down the value of these investments, which would result in an adverse impact on operating results. We also are exposed to credit risk related to guarantee and indemnification arrangements, which support our alternative investments and insurance operations. Our exposure to these guarantee and indemnification risks could materially and adversely affect our results of operations. At year-end 2025, common stock holdings made up 40.0% of our investment portfolio. Adverse news or events affecting the global or U.S. economy or the equity markets, such as we experienced during recent years, will affect our net income, book value and overall results, and could affect our ability to pay our common stock dividend. See Item 7, Investments Results, and Item 7A, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk, for a discussion of our investment activities. Deterioration in the banking sector or in banks with which we have relationships could affect our results of operations. Our ability to maintain or obtain short-term lines of credit could be affected if the banks from which we obtain these lines are acquired, fail or are otherwise negatively affected. We may lose premium revenue if a bank that owns appointed agencies were to change its strategies. We could experience increased losses in our director and officer liability line of business if claims were made against insured financial institutions. A deterioration of credit and market conditions could also impair our ability to access credit markets and could affect existing or future lending arrangements. In addition, a failure to comply with covenants and other requirements under our credit facilities, senior debt and other debt obligations could have a material adverse effect on us and our ability to access the credit markets. Our overall results are affected if a significant portion of our commercial lines or personal lines policyholders are adversely affected by marked or prolonged economic downturns and events such as a downturn in construction and related sectors, tightening credit markets and higher fuel costs experienced during recent periods. Such events make it more difficult for policyholders to finance new projects, complete projects or expand their businesses, and can lead to lower premiums from reduced payrolls and sales and lower purchases of equipment and vehicles. These events could also cause claims, including surety claims, to increase due to a policyholder's inability to secure necessary financing to complete projects or to collect on underlying lines of credit in the claims process. Such economic downturns and events have a greater impact in the construction sector where we have a concentration of risks and in geographic areas that are hardest hit by economic downturns. Deteriorating economic conditions could also increase the degree of credit risk associated with amounts due from independent agents who collect premiums for payment to us and could hamper our ability to recover amounts due from reinsurers.