ASML Holding (ASMF) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

ASML expects Q4 total net sales to be between €14.2 billion and €15.2 billion, with a gross margin of around 57%, installed base management sales of around €3.7 billion, R&D expenses around €1.2 billion and SG&A around €400 million; for full year 2026, it expects total net sales between €44 billion and €45 billion, gross margin around 56%, an anticipated year over year total net sales increase of around 36%, over 45% growth in EUV, around 20% growth in non-EUV-related system sales, around 50% growth in installed base management sales, logic net system sales growth around 10%, memory net system sales growth around 75%, and the China region to account for around 20% of total net sales. ASML anticipates output of roughly 65 low NA EUV systems for 2026, nearly 50% more than the 44 systems shipped last year, expects a similar quantity of DUV immersion systems in 2026 as in 2025, plans to increase 2027 capacity by 30% for both low-NA EUV and DUV immersion systems, is looking into expanding 2028 capacity even above the 30% year on year growth target under investigation, plans to introduce the NXE:3.8 thousandF in small quantities at the beginning of 2027 at 260 wafers per hour versus 32 wafers per hour for the NXE:3.8 thousandE, and plans to introduce next-generation critical deep UV immersion running at 330 wafers per hour. Value-based pricing will have some impact in 2027, with the full impact starting from 2028 onwards; Samsung and TSMC plan to introduce High-NA EUV into high volume manufacturing in 2028 and 2030, respectively, while the 12 inch mask pilot line is targeted for 2031 and production for 2033.