Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

ADM raised full‑year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60 (from $4.15–$4.70), citing Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.84 and total segment operating profit of $1.5B, with first‑half adjusted EPS of ~$2.55, trailing four‑quarter adjusted ROIC of 7.8% and cash flow from operations before working capital of ~$1.8B in H1; the raise rests on three pillars—continued execution, a constructive crushing/ethanol margin backdrop, and Nutrition momentum—and management expects more than half of 2026 operating profit in H2 (Q3 potentially > Q4). Guidance assumptions include China continuing to buy against its ~25M‑ton U.S. soybean commitment, realization of reversals to prior net negative mark‑to‑market/timing (Q2 AS&O included ~ $100M net positive MTM impacts and RPO had ~($50M) headwind), and an increased net benefit from 45Z to ~ $250M (from ~$150M). Other planning metrics called out on the call: Q2 AS&O op profit $867M (+129%), Ag Services $293M (+159%), Crushing $363M (+~$330M), Carb Solutions $411M (+22%), Starches & Sweeteners $326M (+7%), Vantage $85M (+$52M), Nutrition revenue $1.9B (−5%) and Nutrition op profit $172M (+51%); 337k metric tons CO2 sequestered in the quarter; H1 CapEx $466M with FY CapEx guide $1.3–$1.5B; dividends $256M (378th consecutive); net leverage 1.6x (target YE ~2x); and aggregated cost‑savings target of $500–$750M over 3–5 years.